In 2023, despite ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the South China Sea hotspot continued to grab international attention. It was increasingly seen as an indicator of the regional rule of law via a series of policy documents and statements by the US and its partners, especially in the face of the so-called “grey zone” activities. In 2024, China will still be the main factor determining the "intensity" of developments on the ground while the US may reduce its political commitment there to focus on its election and other flashpoints. However, the South China Sea will still act as an arena for great powers to compete and for ASEAN to demonstrate its greater security role.