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Trump 2.0 and the South China Sea: Strategic Stability, Tactical Adjustments

U.S. policy related to the South China Sea (SCS), influenced by multiple domestic and international factors, is embedded within the broader framework of U.S. policy toward China and the region. Under Trump 2.0, such a policy is anticipated to experience significant changes, thus prompting some unresolved questions on whether the SCS issue will remain salient in U.S. foreign policy. If yes, then in...

10/02/2025

South China Sea in 2024 - 2025: “Strong Currents” on Multiple Fronts

In 2024, the South China Sea experienced remarkable developments across various dimensions. Some claimants solidified their marine claims and enhanced transparency in on-site operations compared to 2023. The scope and intensity of on-site tensions expanded, especially as Chinese and Philippine forces repeatedly clashed at strategic locations such as Second Thomas Shoal, Scarborough Shoal, Sabina Shoal,...

05/01/2025

QUAD Summit 2024: A New Maritime Security Spearhead

On September 21, 2024, the four QUAD countries held the 6th summit (QUAD6) in Wilmington, USA. The meeting took place as US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio were entering the final months of their terms. This summit was notable for its strong and unequivocal joint statement on the situations in the South China Sea and East China Sea, alongside the proposal of a regional...

18/12/2024

Japan - Philippines Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) and its impacts on regional security

On July 8, 2024, at the second Japan - Philippines Foreign and Defense Ministerial Meeting (“2+2”) in Manila, the two countries signed the Japan - Philippines Reciprocal Access Agreement” (hereinafter referred to as RAA). This is the first RAA that the Philippines has signed with a foreign country, the third RAA that Japan has, also the first RAA that Japan has signed with a Southeast Asian nation.

12/08/2024

Collision between China and the Philippines in Second Thomas Shoal: Developments and Consequences

On June 17, the Philippine special forces and civil rescue forces used a transport ship and five high-speed rubber boats to supply soldiers stationing on the stranded BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal. In response, China deployed coast guard ships and boats to block, ram, spray water cannons, board the deck, tow away two rubber boats, seize eight infantry guns, injure eight people, and temporarily...

08/07/2024