From 2022 to 2024, the United States introduced a series of export control measures to prevent China from accessing advanced semiconductor technology and consolidate U.S. leadership in strategic sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI).

1. Key milestones

In 2022, the U.S. implemented extensive export restrictions targeting Chinese firms while pressuring other countries and companies to follow suit. These measures included: (i) restricting chip sales by NVIDIA and AMD (U.S.) as well as Samsung and SK Hynix (South Korea) to China, which are crucial for AI development; (ii) tightening exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, such as extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools, from ASML (Netherlands) and Tokyo Electron (Japan); (iii) limiting China's access to electronic design automation (EDA) software provided by U.S. firms Synopsys and Cadence; and (iv) blocking China's procurement of critical components needed for domestic equipment production from KLA Corporation (U.S.).

In 2023, in response to China’s adjustments in chip design, the U.S. updated its export control criteria, including: (i) lowering the Total Processing Power (TPP) threshold from 4,800 to 1,600 Giga operations per second to curb China's ability to develop and produce advanced chips and (ii) encouraging the Netherlands to restrict the export of advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV) equipment capable of manufacturing sub-7nm chips through multi-patterning techniques, bypassing earlier EUV restrictions.

In 2024, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), essential for modern AI systems, emerged as a new focus. The U.S. introduced: (i) a ban on exporting HBM2E and HBM3 to China; (ii) an expansion of the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR) to regulate overseas products utilizing U.S. technology and (iii) the addition of 140 Chinese firms to the U.S. Entity List, including affiliates of Huawei.

2. Effectiveness of these measures

On the one hand, while some analysts argue that the measures could disrupt China’s progress in the short term, their long-term impact is uncertain. For example, a CSIS commentary by Harithas and Schumacher highlights that these controls affect global supply chains, force U.S. allies into difficult decisions, and shrink U.S. market opportunities. China has responded by ramping up domestic R&D investments and collaborating with countries not bound by U.S. export controls.

On the other hand, these measures could still serve U.S. interests. The goal may not be to halt China’s technological advancements completely but to delay its progress, providing the U.S. and its allies time to strengthen their technological edge in strategic areas and reduce dependencies on China, particularly for rare earth materials.

Translated and edited by HCNN
An original version of the article was published here