On December 18, the US Department of Defense published the 24th update of the Annual Report on Military and Security Developments involving China, summarizing data up to early 2024.
Regarding maritime security (including the South China Sea) and great power rivalry, some notable figures include:
- In 2023, the Chinese coast guard’s presence in the contiguous zone of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands was 352 days in total, compared to 336 days in 2022.
- Chinese maritime militia has become more active in the South China Sea, with a 35% increase in the number of ships monitored in 2023. On average, 195 vessels were spotted daily.
- The Chinese Navy currently leads the world in term of fleet size, with over 370 warships and submarines (including more than 140 large surface warships), and 22 Type 056 Jiangdao corvettes.
- Beyond the Djibouti base - where 400 Chinese marines are stationed, China is actively seeking new overseas bases and access points.
- China’s nuclear arsenal expanded to over 600 operational warheads by early 2024, compared to 500 in last year’s report.
- China possesses 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking the U.S. mainland.
- Since late 2023, the PLA has reduced the number of "coercive and dangerous" interceptions against US aircraft compared to two years prior.
A few quick comments:
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Although labeled as a 2024 Report, much of the data pertains to 2023, with some dated early 2024. Certain figures (such as the reduction in dangerous air interceptions or the increase in "gray zone" incidents) lack detailed context. The Report’s "non-classified" sources are not detailed, but such details might be included in the classified version provided to Congress.
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Beyond information dissemination, the report likely serves broader purposes. Internally, the Report is prepared annually by the DOD – with the US Congress as the primary audience – for resource allocations under the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). By emphasizing China's military advancements and associated risks, the DOD might aim to bolster its case for increased budget allocation in the upcoming fiscal year. Externally, the report emphasizes China’s "gray zone" activities in the South China Sea, particularly against the Philippines more than other claimants, which suggests DOD’s prioritization of supporting the Philippines in matters related to the South China Sea.
Translated and edited by NNDH
A full text of the Report could be found at:
Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2024