On April 20, 2024, The Diplomat published a commentary by Thomas Lim and Eric Ang, arguing that the “grey zone” activities of the Houthis in the Red Sea and those of China in the South China Sea (specifically the Second Thomas Shoal) has several common characteristics. Read the article here.
 
The article points out three similarities:
    • In both areas, non-military entities are attributed to the conduct of “grey zone” activities: the Houthis are an armed group/movement, whereas China uses coast guard ships and militia vessels.
    • Critical sea routes are the common targets. The Houthis focuses on the Bab al-Mandab Strait, while China targets the supply route of the Second Thomas Shoal.
    • In terms of tactics: both forces conducting “grey zone” activities use legal or public opinion warfare, spreading disinformation to justify their actions and rally international support (albeit at different levels).
This article partly reflects the interconnectedness of the developments in the South China Sea and the Red Sea – a trend witnessed in the past year. In addition to the “grey zone” activities, the two “hotspots” also share other commonalities, such as great power competition, freedom of navigation issues (linked to global trade) or the rule of law at sea, etc. At the 16th South China Sea Conference organized by the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, many speakers highlighted this trend, including Managing Director for Asia and the Pacific of the European External Action Service Niclas Kvarnström (noting that the South China Sea and the Red Sea have many common challenges), and Canadian Deputy Minister of Defense Scott Miller (emphasizing that Canada views the South Sea in the same vein as the Black Sea – Red Sea).
 
However, the article does not dig deep into the differences in the deployment or the root causes of the “grey zone” tactics in these two “hotspots”. For example, the Houthis’ activities may stem from persistent political-economic-social grievances associated with imperialism, which is different from the sovereignty dispute at the Second Thomas Shoal (though there were also colonial involvement in the South China Sea in history). The Houthis’ activities are notably more related to the use of armed force and encountered direct military responses from Western countries while the Second Thomas Shoal incidents have only invited verbal Western condemnation so far.

Translated and edited by NNDH