On November 23, RAND published a commentary by scholar Derek Grossman, arguing that Trump 2.0 would pursue a “hawkish” policy toward China, potentially benefiting certain Southeast Asian countries.
 
According to the author, the Philippines stands to gain the most due to its heavy losses resulting from China’s claims in the South China Sea. For Vietnam, Trump 2.0 might overlook trade disputes in exchange for cooperation in competing with China. Similarly, Trump 2.0 could set aside value-based issues to engage Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar for the same strategic reasons. Meanwhile, for Brunei and Malaysia, Trump 2.0 might support their claims in the South China Sea.
 
However, the commentary appears somewhat one-sided due to the following reasons:
    • The author portrays Southeast Asia as a passive player in the U.S.-China competition, overlooking the region’s active efforts to balance influence between the two major powers.
    • The analysis fails to address the challenges posed by Trump 2.0’s China policy and U.S. foreign policy in general. For instance, Trump 2.0 might withdraw the U.S. from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), climate change agreements, or reduce practical commitments to ASEAN, impacting Southeast Asia. Countries like Indonesia and Malaysia could also be concerned about Trump 2.0’s stance on the Gaza conflict.
    • Trump 1.0’s “transactional” approach raises fears of great-power compromises that could adversely affect Southeast Asia.

 

Translated and Edited by NNHD
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