Sabina Shoal – the new “Second Thomas Shoal” for China

After reaching a temporary arrangement (July 21) to ease tensions at Second Thomas Shoal, China and the Philippines confrontation seemed to move to other areas in the South China Sea (East Sea in Vietnam) in August, of which Sabina Shoal could be considered the most noticeable.

Sabina Shoal – the new “Second Thomas Shoal” for China – Philippines incidents?

Photo: Jam Sta Rosa/AFP/Getty Images

1/ China and the Philippines ships at Sabina Shoal:

On August 19, the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) accused a Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) ship of ignoring China’s warnings and “deliberately colliding” with a Chinese ship in an "unprofessional and dangerous" The Philippines refuted China on the same day[1], accusing China of taking “unlawful and aggressive” maneuvers against two PCG ships (including ramming a Philippine ship twice, causing structural damage).
On August 25, the CCG accused two PCG ships of “deliberately dangerously approaching and ramming” a CCG boat[2]. The Philippines then said that the Chinese navy and coast guard “rammed and deployed water cannons” at the Philippine ships, causing engine failure and forcing PCG to stop the humanitarian supply mission[3]. The PCG also denied the information that China rescued a Philippine personnel who fell into the water.
On August 26, the Philippines accused China of sending an “excessive force” of 40 ships (including Navy, Coast Guard and maritime militia) to obstruct two PCG ships from undertaking humanitarian supplies to the BRP Teresa Magbanua at Sabina Shoal, causing the mission to fail[4].
On August 29, the CCG accused Philippine helicopter H-145 of dropping supplies to PCG ship 9701 (August 28) at Sabina Shoal, warning of unexpected incidents at sea and in the air, and condemning the Philippines for carrying out “risky infringement” in the name of “humanitarianism”[5]. Official information from the Philippine side is still pending up to now.
On August 31, the CCG accused a PCG ship of “deliberately ramming" a Chinese ship, with a video footage attached[6]. The Philippines then blamed the Chinese ship, for “deliberately ramming and colliding with” a Philippine ship despite no provocation from the Philippines, and also attached video footage[7].

Beside Sabina Shoal, the Philippines also accused China of launching flares at Philippine patrol aircrafts near Scarborough Shoal (August 8[8]) and Subi Reef (August 22[9]).

2/ International responses so far

Regarding new developments at Sabina Shoal and some other spots in the South China Sea, the international community has expressed strong concern:

The US Department of State[10] and Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade[11] issued official statements (on August 31 and September 2, respectively) in support of the Philippines and to “condemn” a series of Chinese actions in the South China Sea throughout August.
Many diplomatic missions in the Philippines (namely the US, Australia, Japan, the UK, New Zealand, Korea, France, Germany, the EU and so on) also expressed support for the Philippines and concerns over China in each separate incident through X/Twitter platform.
Notably, the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs[12] also voiced strong condemnation about China ramming a Philippine ship on August 26, stating that Chinese ambitions “has transcended Taiwan and become the major threat to regional stability”, and calling on democracies to unite against that threat.

3/ The above developments indicate some notable differences from the developments at Second Thomas Shoal back in June:

China promoted “transparency” more actively by publicizing the incidents (through both official statements and video footage) on the CCG's official website (China made the first move to announce 4/5 incidents at Sabina Shoal in August). Meanwhile, the Philippines were somewhat in a more passive position. The Philippines often issued statements through the personal account of PCG spokesman Jay Tarriela and somethimes not even officially responded to accusation from the Chinese side (e.g. the information that the Philippines conducted supply mission by a helicopter on August 28).
The domains of incidents expanded to both the sea and the air (although not yet at the level of collision in the air), and the frequency of incidents also increased. Along with that, according to information from the Philippine side, China sent an “excessive” number of ships and forces (40 ships including the Navy, Coast Guard and militia) to block 2 Philippine ships on August 26[13], which may have indicated both sides’ more assertive position.
Taiwan’s reaction was worth noting. After the June 17 collision at Second Thomas Shoal, Taiwan called on both parties to peacefully solve the crisis but this time the language is much stronger, directly condemning China’s action. Taiwan share similar stances with China’s in many previous cases, such as the South China Sea Arbitration Ruling 2016[14] or the submissions[15] by Philippines and Vietnam on extended continental shelf limits, but this time separated itself from China’s position.

With all the abovementioned developments, will China and the Philippines find a way to expand the existing temporary arrangement or negotiate another one to avoid more serious and dangerous collisions at their new “Second Thomas Shoal”?

An original version of the article was published here.

Translated by ND.

Edited by HD.

[1] https://x.com/jaytaryela/status/1825351369756414183

[2] https://www.ccg.gov.cn/wqzf/202408/t20240825_2438.html

[3] https://x.com/jaytaryela/status/1827634561502843071

[4] https://x.com/jaytaryela/status/1828077854539874574

[5] https://www.ccg.gov.cn/wqzf/202408/t20240829_2445.html

[6] https://www.ccg.gov.cn/wqzf/202408/t20240831_2450.html

[7] https://x.com/jaytaryela/status/1829795642484670573

[8] https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1230915

[9] https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1231897