Will "One Theater" Concept Work?

In April, it was reported that the Japanese Defense Minister proposed the concept of "one theater" to his US counterpart, aiming to link the maritime "hotspots" of the South China Sea, East China Sea and the Korean Peninsula into a single strategic area. In June, the press reported that the Philippines had shown support for this approach.

 

In response to this trend, Professor Don McLain Gill (De La Salle University) commented that "one battlefield" is the right strategic approach for the US and its allies to jointly respond to the challenge from China.

 

According to the author, this direction is more feasible now that the Philippines has established a foundation of military coordination with the US and its allies, via a series of Reciprocal Access Agreements (RAA) and Visiting Force Agreements (VFA). The Philippines is also about to have a joint coordination center with the "Squad" countries (the Philippines, Australia, Japan and the US), which could make operations on a common battlefield more doable.

 

However, the author also believes that the approach has many limitations:

 

- First, the scope of the operational space is not yet unified: Japan wants to include the Korean peninsula but the Philippines does not.

 

- Second, US allies have separate calculations. For example, Australia considers the Taiwan scenario to be only local (if it happens), and will not spread to other hot spots, unlike the Philippines. South Korea will want to maintain the interest of the US and its allies in North Korea, instead of sharing this interest to other hot spots.

 

- Third, countries are concerned about the US's long-term commitment to its allies, especially when the Trump 2.0 administration tends to urge allies to share the burden and trade off benefits that could harm allies’ interests, etc.

 

In addition to the limitations the author has mentioned, the concept of "one theater" also has many other unclear points: Is the concept a strategic approach, a way of framing to explain the coordination of resources or a new military tactic? If it is a new military tactic, does "one battlefield" have any added value for the US and its allies compared to the strategies these countries have been pursuing in the region? If it is a strategic approach, will other regional hotspots such as Taiwan or the Yellow Sea be included in this concept by the US and its allies?

 

Also, according to some recent sources, the latest draft of the Trump 2.0 Administration's National Defense Strategy (NDS) prioritizes homeland security and Western Hemisphere security, downplaying US priorities in the Indo-Pacific region, contrary to the Biden-era and Trump 1.0 NDSs. If this is the real future policy direction of the US, resources for deploying "one theater", from the US side, may be limited.