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Activities of the Claimants

China

China's aircraft carrier returns from S China Sea

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China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, returned to its homeport in Qingdao, north China’s Shandong province on January 1st after completing a series of scientific tests and training programs in the South China Sea. The aircraft carrier underwent a comprehensive test of its combat system and conducted a formation practice during its 37-day voyage. The Liaoning's combat and power system and its seagoing capability have been further tested during the voyage. The Chinese navy dispatched aircraft, naval vessels and submarines to participate in the tests.

China mulls revamping military regions

China is considering reorganizing its seven military regions into five in a bid to respond more swiftly to a crisis, the Japanese daily Yomiuri Shimbun reported on January 1st. Each of the new military regions will create a joint operations command that controls the army, navy and air force as well as a strategic missile unit, the major daily said citing senior Chinese military officials and other sources. The planned revamp would mark a shift from the current defense-oriented military that relies mainly on the army to one that ensures more mobile and integrated management of the army, navy, air force and strategic missile units, Yomiuri said. On January 3rd, Chinese Ministry of National Defense confirmed that China is to establish a joint operational command system "in due course", with observers saying this will result in more-coordinated and combat-capable forces to efficiently respond to a crisis. 

The Philippines

Philippines starts deployment of troops in Spratlys

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The military on January 4th started its rotation of Air Force and naval contingents for deployments in Thi Tu Island (the Philippines calls it Pag-Asa Island) in the Spratlys. Originally scheduled before Christmas, the airmen were not immediately relieved by their counterparts at Armed Forces of the Philippines-Western Command (AFP-Wescom) headquarters in Palawan due to the prevailing weather system hovering over the region for the entire month of December.

Thailand

Code of conduct talks must remain free of rivalry

Thailand wants neither geopolitics nor competition between regional powers to affect negotiations between Asean and China over the South China Sea dispute, a senior diplomat says. Permanent secretary for foreign affairs Sihasak Phuangketkeow said if the geopolitical situation is unstable, it could affect the negotiations between Asean and China on the code of conduct in the South China Sea. Mr Sihasak will chair the senior official meeting between Asean and China in April in Thailand to work on details of the code of conduct, but he also plans to talk with Asean member countries before the meeting to seek consensus and strengthen Asean's position for the negotiations. 

Vietnam

First Kilo submarine arrives at Cam Ranh port

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The Kilo-636 submarine, named Hanoi, was directed to the Cam Ranh port in the central province of Khanh Hoa on January 3rd. Heavy lift vessel Rolldock Sea , carrying the submarine, arrived at the Cam Ranh port on January 1st after a six week voyage from St Petersburg . The submarine is scheduled to be handed over to the Vietnamese side on January 10th. The second, to be named Ho Chi Minh, is expected to arrive in Cam Ranh bay next March. The submarine is the first of the six diesel-powered 636 Varshavyanka (kilo)-class submarines that Vietnam bought from Russia to modernise its navy, enhancing the capacity to defend the country’s territorial waters.

Regional Snapshots

China, Cambodia boost comprehensive cooperation

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Chinese and Cambodian leaders have agreed to enhance the traditional friendship and comprehensive cooperation between the two countries in the coming time. The consensus was reached by Chinese Premier Le Keqiang held talks with Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Hor Namhong during their talks in Zhongnanhai on January 2nd as part of the latter’s visit to China to attend the first meeting of the China-Cambodia Inter-governmental Coordination Committee held in the same day. The host affirmed that the Chinese Government always pursues friendship policies with Cambodia and will continue to assist the country in developing its economy and further promoting its bigger role in regional and international affairs. For his part, Cambodian Deputy PM Hor Namhong said China’s development not only brings prosperity to itself but also to peace and development in the region.

Resolve on South China Sea key to ASEAN chair

Myanmar must avoid bowing to any form of international pressure on the South China Sea dispute when it takes the ASEAN chairmanship next year, a Burmese government official says. U Aung Htoo, deputy director general in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ ASEAN Affairs Department, said Myanmar would seek to emulate the approach of Brunei and work toward a diplomatic solution to the dispute. On October 10th, participants at East Asia Summit – the 10 ASEAN members and eight other countries, including the United States, China and Japan – welcomed “positive progress” on official consultations toward the code of conduct. U Aung Htoo said Myanmar will try to add further momentum to these initial talks. “China has now agreed to the principle of a code of conduct to resolve the South China Sea dispute. We can’t go against China and we will try our best to handle the dispute with China’s agreement as much as we can,” U Aung Htoo said. 

Vietnamese, China foreign ministers hold phone talks

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on December 30th held phone talks to exchange New Year greetings and views on bilateral ties. Hailing positive developments in the Vietnam-China relationship over the past year, the two sides agreed to enhance coordination in effectively implementing the common perceptions reached by the high-ranking leaders of the two Parties and States. They were unanimous in fostering the Vietnam-China comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership to a new level of development in 2014.

Commentaries & Analyses

Muted Asean response to China's ADIZ

By Dylan Loh Ming Hui

Why are Asean countries slow to react to China’s ADIZ in East China Sea? Firstly, it is likely that Asean states are adopting a "wait and see" approach to assess if the ADIZ would be enforced and if it could be legitimately accepted. The logic among Asean members seems to be: Why risk the ire of China and get drawn into the episode unnecessarily when there are bigger, more influential countries willing to "take the hit" and do the pushing back? Secondly, some Asean countries might also perceive the impact of the ADIZ on Asean to be minimal -- hence, no cause for concern -- because the dynamics of the East China Sea disputes are evidently different from the South China Sea. Thirdly, the structure of Asean -- particularly decision-making by consultation and consensus the "Asean Way" -- discourages attempts to make quick, concerted responses. Therefore, any collective response is difficult considering the divergent views on China amongst Asean countries. But Asean's sluggish reaction could be interpreted by China as a sign of acquiescence, which may embolden Beijing even more. Surely, if China can successfully wrest control of the skies through the ADIZ in the East China Sea -- where tensions are higher and relationships more strained -- there would not be any real obstacles to implementing an ADIZ in the comparatively calmer South China Sea? Until Asean can start acting collectively, more nimbly and display more solidarity, there is little within the capacity of Asean to deter China from trying to dominate the airspace over the South China Sea and beyond.

South China Sea: Slim hopes of early resolution

By Idayu Suparto

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Discussions on a South China Sea Code of Conduct are expected to gather pace in the months ahead after stalling for several years. However, temperatures are still raised in the region and it remains to be seen whether Myanmar, a long-time ally of China, can shore up enough credibility during its maiden chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to preside over discussions on the Code, saidthe analysts. Dr Thayer, who conducts research on security in South-east Asia, said: “I think the Myanmar government has made a decision that it will gain more by being a good chair of ASEAN and reflecting the group’s consensus. But it may not be so proactive on the South China Sea (dispute). It may just go with the flow and preside over (the issue) and intervene where necessary.” It is against this backdrop of complex and, at times, competing interests of individual countries that the common imperative of regional stability and security has to prevail over. While several countries are laying claims to the disputed territories in the South China Sea, Manila and Beijing have emerged as the main protagonists. Dr Simon Tay, Chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said: “Right now, between the Philippines and China, there is so much distrust. There aren’t really any conditions for both sides to de-escalate.” Furthermore, Beijing’s recently move to announce a ADIZ over disputed islands in the East China Sea and its assertion that it could impose similar zones in other areas hardly helped matters, the analysts pointed out. With tensions over the ADIZ in the East China Sea still simmering — and a possible UN tribunal ruling on the dispute between Manila and Beijing — analysts are not optimistic about an early breakthrough in the discussions on the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea. Dr Thayer said: “We have a positive momentum but it is likely to be very protracted. We haven’t really seen what China’s hand is going to be but, so far, that’s a positive development.”

Vietnam ropes in stakeholders to China territorial dispute

By P. K. Ghosh

Following talks between Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong during the Vietnamese leader’s recent high-profile visit to India, eight agreements were signed. There was also an MoU signed, in which the seven oil blocks in the South China Sea were offered to India — including three on an exclusive basis — as well as joint prospecting in some Central Asian countries with which both Hanoi and New Delhi have good political ties. Aside from India, Hanoi is also targeting Russia and Japan to counter pressure from China as their presence would serve as a deterrent. (Hanoi recently roped in Russia to invest in oil and gas blocks.) Hanoi’s move could make China uneasy as Chinese foreign policy, especially towards the South China Sea and the East China Sea, has undergone a major shift in the last few years. This change in course has ensured that Deng Xiaoping’s ‘24-character strategy’, which acted as a guideline for foreign and security policy, and China’s phase of ‘biding time’, has evolved into a more forceful assertion of sovereignty claims. The new Chinese leadership under Xi Jinping — which is keen to establish its authority in the national politics and thus shy away from being called ‘weak or too generous’ — has upped the ante and signalled an uncompromising stand by regarding the South China Sea as a matter of ‘core interests’. It is not difficult to imagine that the Chinese will be uncomfortable with the current scenario. China is against any ‘outside power’ being involved in the South China Sea, though its own forces are regularly operating in the Indian Ocean region. Vietnam on its part well knows that it makes strategic sense to internationalise the scenario and put into place as many international stakeholders as possible. The only countries that can probably withstand the pressures from and against China are being wooed by Vietnam. They in turn may like to prop up Vietnam as a bulwark against the increasingly hegemonistic attitude of the Chinese. The United States, Russia and India are the countries that fit well into the Vietnamese game plan.

Four Flashpoints to Watch in 2014

By Harry Kazianis

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Without question, 2013 was a jam-packed year for national security, defense and foreign policy watchers in the Asia-Pacific. What will 2014 bring? Below are my top four flashpoints to watch out for in 2014, in ascending order. 4. North Korea Once Again Sparks Tensions: Next year offers countless possibilities for Pyongyang to raise tensions in Northeast Asia – and all are disturbing. From another nuclear or missile test, some sort of aggressive act that sparks a regional crisis or just an outright collapse, North Korea always has the potential to plunge Northeast Asia and the wider region into a state of chaos. 3. U.S.-China Tensions Continue to Grow: The rise of China is certainly a global story with worldwide ramifications. In 2014, look for China’s rise to take a new twist, sparking greater competitive tensions with the United States that are much more out in the open than in years past. From more incidents at sea like the near collision with the USS Cowpens, trade disputes and new trade blocs (perhaps the TTP?), allegations of more spying but from both sides (calling Edward Snowden?), there is no easier prediction to make than that 2014 will not be an easy one for U.S.-China ties. 2. Drama in the South China Sea: It seems tensions here are never ending. Look for next year to continue a familiar pattern. Considering the number of claimants to the various islands, reefs, inlets and rocks along with the natural resources that are thought to lie beneath them, 2014 should provide plenty of stressful headlines. Look for Beijing to continue to press its claims through what calls “Small Stick Diplomacy,” but with a stick that might get a little bit bigger. With Beijing recently deploying its new, but non-functional, aircraft carrier to the region for maneuvers after declaring a new air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, look for China to keep the pressure on in areas like Co Rong Shoal. 1. Drama in the East China Sea: Forget Syria’s civil war, Iran’s nuclear program or America’s drawdown in Afghanistan – there is no more important international hotspot in the world today than in the East China Sea, where tensions between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands are ongoing. Given that the world’s second and third largest economies are locked into a cycle of increasing tensions that could conceivably draw in the U.S., the stakes could not be any higher.