Of course, the international community has a lot on its plate nowadays, not least a massive refugee crisis fuelled by chaos in the Middle East. But the reality is that, as long as China feels free to manoeuvre without consequence, it will continue to do so, fuelling tensions with its neighbours that could easily turn into all-out conflict, derailing Asia’s rise.
A key component of China’s strategy in the South China Sea is the dredging of low-tide elevations to make small islands, including in areas that, as China’s deputy foreign minister for Asian affairs, Mr Liu Zhenmin, recently acknowledged, “are far from the Chinese mainland”.
In China’s view, that distance makes it “necessary” to build “military facilities” on the islands. And, indeed, three of the seven newly constructed islets include airfields, from which Chinese warplanes could challenge the United States Navy’s ability to operate unhindered in the region.
By militarising the South China Sea, China is seeking to establish a de facto Air Defence Identification Zone like the one that it formally — and unilaterally — declared in 2013 in the East China Sea, where it claims islands that it does not control.
China knows that, under international law, its claim to sovereignty over virtually all of the resource-endowed South China Sea, based on an “historic right”, is weak. That is why it has opposed international adjudication. Instead, it is trying to secure “effective control” — which, under international law, enhances significantly the legitimacy of a country’s territorial claim — just as it has done in the Himalayas and elsewhere.
But China’s ambitions extend beyond the South China Sea: It aims to create a strongly Sino-centric Asia. Thus, the country recently established its first overseas military base — a naval hub in Djibouti, on the Horn of Africa — and it has repeatedly sent submarines into the Indian Ocean. Moreover, China is engaging in far-reaching economic projects — such as the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, which entails the construction of infrastructure linking Asia to Europe — that will strengthen its presence in, and influence over, a number of countries, thereby recasting regional geopolitics in its image.
Meanwhile, US President Barack Obama’s administration remains hesitant to back up its much-publicised “pivot” toward Asia with meaningful action — especially action to constrain China. Instead of, say, imposing sanctions or exerting localised military pressure on China, the Obama administration has attempted to pass the buck. Specifically, it has stepped up military cooperation with other Asia-Pacific countries, encouraged other claimants to territory in the South China Sea to shore up their defences, and supported a more active role in regional security for democratic powers like Australia, India, and even Japan.
To put it bluntly, that is not enough.
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