Weekly Bulletin 7/10-13/10

Activities of the Claimants

China

China advocates direct talks of South China Sea countries

China said on October 7^th that the involvement of countries outside the South China Sea region on the maritime disputes will only complicate the situation. "The involvement of countries outside the region on the South China Sea issue is more out of political purposes," said Liu Zhenmin, vice foreign minister, at a press briefing. "This is not conducive to the increase of mutual trust and consensus among countries in the region, but only complicates the situation, "Liu said. He said China advocates and supports that countries to discuss the South China Sea issue on the China-ASEAN leaders' meeting as this is an issue within the region.

CNOOC issues exploration tender, includes South China sea blocks

State-run CNOOC (0883.HK), China's top offshore oil producer, has issued a tender to invite foreign firms to bid for oil and gas blocks in the East and South China Sea, according to a statement on the company website. CNOOC said it would offer 25 offshore blocks for foreign participation this year, including 17 in the South China Sea and three in the East China Sea.

Details

China warns US, Japan, Australia not to gang up in sea dispute

China said on October 7^th the United States, Australia and Japan should not use their alliance as an excuse to intervene in territorial disputes in the East China Sea and South China Sea, and urged them to refrain from inflaming regional tensions. On October 4^th, Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry raised the maritime disputes during a trilateral strategic dialogue in Bali, Indonesia. A joint statement from the U.S.-Japan-Australia meeting opposed "coercive or unilateral actions" that could change the status quo in the East China Sea and called on claimants to maritime disputes in the South China Sea to refrain from destabilising actions. "The United States, Japan and Australia are allies but this should not become an excuse to interfere in territorial disputes, otherwise it will only make the problems more complicated and harm the interests of all parties," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said on October 7^th. In the press conference on October 11^th, Hua Chunying also said: “China's position on the South China Sea issue is very clear freedom of navigation on the South China Sea is never a problem and will not be one in the future. Other countries should respect the joint efforts and consensus of China and ASEAN countries.”

China raises seven-pronged proposal on promoting China-ASEAN cooperation

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang put forward a seven-point proposal on further broadening and deepening cooperation between his country and the ASEAN. He pointed out that the basis for advancing cooperation is to strengthen strategic trust and consolidate good-neighborliness, and the key to deepening cooperation is to focus on economic development and expand mutual benefit. China and the 10-member bloc should seize opportunities and push forward their broad, deep, high-level and all-dimensional cooperation, said the Chinese premier, who also raised a seven-pronged proposal on the framework of bilateral cooperation in the coming 10 years. First, the two sides should discuss the signing of a treaty on good-neighborliness, friendship and cooperation. Second, the two sides need to beef up security exchanges and cooperation. Third, the two sides should launch negotiations on upgrading their free trade area. Fourth, China and ASEAN need to speed up the construction of inter-connectivity infrastructure. Fifth, the two sides should cooperate to enhance regional financial cooperation and immunity to risks. Sixth, the two sides should promote maritime cooperation, joining hands to build a 21st-century maritime Silk Road. Seventh, China and ASEAN need to rev up exchanges in culture, technology, environmental protection and other areas. On the sidelines of ASEAN Summit in Brunei, China premier also calls for "peace" in South China Sea. "A peaceful South China Sea is a blessing for all," Li told the leaders during a summit in Brunei We need to work together to make the South China Sea a sea of peace, friendship and cooperation."

Taiwan risks tensions with survey of disputed Spratlys

Taiwan has conducted a natural gas and oil survey in the disputed Spratly Islands, a legislator said October 9^th, the latest in a string of moves that risk stoking tensions over the South China Sea archipelago. A team of technicians from the state-run CPC Corporation, Taiwan sailed to Ba Binh Island, on October 7^th, legislator Lin Yu-fang's office said in a statement.

Chinese Premier to visit Vietnam

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will make an official visit to Vietnam from October 13^th-15^th at the invitation of Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung. The upcoming visit, the first by a high-ranking Chinese leader since the country’s new leadership took office, is of great significance to reinforcing political trust and promoting the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between Vietnam and China. They also will exchange their views on regional and international issues of common concern.

Vietnam

Vietnamese Premier calls for secure regional architecture for East Asia

At the eight East Asia Summit (EAS) in Brunei on October 10^th, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung attached the importance to setting up and promoting a regional architecture for peace, security and prosperity in East Asia. The Vietnamese leader said the EAS should promote its active, decisive role in ensuring peace, security and development cooperation in the region, by building strategic trust, complying with international law, and formulating mutual conduct standards. As regards the East Sea issues, PM Dung emphasized the importance of ensuring peace, stability, security and trust building in the East Sea, addressing disputes by peaceful means on the basis of strictly abiding by international law, including the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982 UNCLOS). He also urged ASEAN and China to effectively implement the Declaration of the Conduct of Parties in the East Sea (DOC) and work towards the formation of a Code of Conduct in the East Sea (COC).

The Philippines

Philippines mulls submarine acquisition

Northern Luzon Command head Major Gen. Gregorio Pio Catapang said on October 7^th in a state news report that the Philippine Navy needs the stealth warships to monitor the Philippines' coastal territories. Catapang said this amid the Chinese's presence in Philippine-claimed areas in the South China Sea. The official said the military plans to purchase the conventional-powered or diesel-electric submarines, which are generally cheaper than nuclear-powered units. Also being eyed is the acquisition of six frigates for anti-air warfare, 12 corvettes for anti-submarine warfare, 18 offshore patrol vessels and three anti-mine warfare ships.

Philippines calls for rules-based solution to sea disputes

Addressing the UN on October 9^th, Philippine Permanent Representative to the UN Libran Cabactulan also told the world body that the country’s arbitration bid against China would benefit the global community as it sought to ensure freedom of navigation in the critical trading route. “It is paramount for all states to contribute in creating peace, order, stability and predictability in the seas. Allowing the disputes to fester for years … will perpetuate more uncertainties; it is untenable,” Cabactulan said at a committee-level meeting on the Rule of Law of the UN General Assembly.

India

India seeks peace in disputed South China Sea

India on Thursday said a stable maritime environment, including the right of passage and unimpeded commerce in the South China Sea in accordance with international law, is essential to realise the collective regional aspirations of Asian countries. Addressing the East Asia Summit at Brunei’s capital city, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh welcomed the commitment made by the concerned nations to resolve the South China Seas issue with a consensus. “A stable maritime environment is essential to realise our collective regional aspirations. We should re-affirm the principles of maritime security, including the right of passage and unimpeded commerce, in accordance with international law, and peaceful settlement of maritime disputes,” Singh said.

Japan

Abe confirms Japan's support for Philippine coast guard

9^th October | Kyodo News

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Wednesday confirmed Japan's plans to support Manila's capacity-building efforts for its coast guard amid increasing tensions between the Philippines and China over their overlapping claims in the South China Sea, Japanese officials said. Abe told Philippine President Benigno Aquino that the process is under way toward swiftly providing 10 patrol ships to the Philippines as unveiled during his visit to Manila in July, the officials said.

Australia

Australia warns of conflict risk in South China Sea

Attending the East Asia Summit in Brunei Darussalam, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said he believed simmering tensions between China and a number of other countries over claims to several groups of strategically important islands as well as significant oil and gas reserves, were reducing but the risk of war remained. He backed calls for a code of conduct, arguing an orderly resolution of differences in the disputed territories was vital to trade, which in turn was crucial to Australian jobs and prosperity for all. "Almost 60 per cent of our trade goes through the South China Sea, so strategic stability is very important," he said.

The U.S.

US tacitly backs Philippines in China dispute

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry gave tacit backing to the Philippines' stance in a tense maritime dispute with China on October 10^th, saying that all countries had a right to seek arbitration to resolve competing territorial claims. The United States has refrained from taking sides in the dispute, one of Asia's biggest security headaches, but has expressed a national interest in freedom of navigation through one of the world's busiest shipping channels. "All claimants have a responsibility to clarify and align their claims with international law. They can engage in arbitration and other means of peaceful negotiation," Kerry told leaders at the East Asia Summit in Brunei, including Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. "Freedom of navigation and overflight is a linchpin of security in the Pacific," he added.

Regional Snapshots

Vietnam, China discuss Tonkin Gulf issues

Vietnamese and Chinese experts agreed to bolster cooperation for mutual development in the waters off the Gulf of Tonkin at their fourth round of negotiations in Beijing, China from October 7^th-9^th. In a friendly, frank and constructive atmosphere, both sides vowed to push forward negotiations, especially those related to demarcation of maritime boundaries in the waters off the Gulf of Tonkin based on the common perception of the two countries’ leaders.

23rd ASEAN Summit wraps up in Brunei

The 23^rd ASEAN Summit and related meetings closed in Brunei’s capital city Bandar Seri Begawan on October 10^th, wrapping up the year Brunei plays ASEAN Chair. During the summit and related meetings, ASEAN leaders focused their discussions on the formation of an ASEAN Community which is scheduled to be completed by 2015. They voiced their support for building ASEAN’s post-2015 vision and agreed to boost regional linkage and connectivity and further deepen relations between the ten-member group and its partners while promoting the bloc’s central role and enhancing its contributions to peace, stability and development in the region. ASEAN and its partners touched upon and proposed a range of practical measures in order to promote peace, stability, security and development cooperation in the region. The leaders also devoted much time to deliberating regional and international issues of mutual concern, including the East Sea question. They stressed the significance of the maintenance of peace, security and stability in the region as well as the East Sea, the peaceful settlement of disputes, the observance of international law and the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law on the Sea, the full and efficient implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the East Sea, and the early achievement of a Code of Conduct in the East Sea.

US, Japan urge early solutions to East Sea disputes

The US and Japan on October 10^th called for all involved parties to accelerate diplomatic solutions to disputes in the East Sea. US Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters on the sidelines of the 8th East Asia Summit in Brunei that a Code of Conduct in the East Sea (COC) is a necessity for the long term. He added that all sides claiming territory in these waters have a responsibility to align their claims with international law. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he looks forward to the early conclusion of a Code of Conduct which is legally binding and stressed that the sea should be ruled by law and not by force.

Indonesia, India to further strategic partnership

Indonesia and India, two largest economies in Southeast Asia and South Asia will further boost strategic partnership in the coming time. The agreement was reached at the talks between Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Jakarta on October 11^th. They also exchanged views on bilateral, regional and global issues of mutual concern.

Commentaries & Analyses

With Russia’s Help, Vietnam Adopts A2/AD Strategy

By Carl Thayer

In May 2012, Vietnam and Russia raised their long-standing strategic partnership to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Russian sales of military equipment, technology and military training are the centerpiece of this relationship. Under a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on Naval Cooperation, the two parties established a joint working group to work out the modalities of naval cooperation in 2013. This year Russian and Vietnam exchanged visits by their respective defense ministers and reached new agreements on arms sales, the transfer of military technology and long-term service arrangements. Russia’s Defense Minister General Sergei Shoigo made a working visit to Hanoi in March at the invitation of his counterpart General Phung Quang Thanh. At a joint press conference they announced agreement on continuing high-level visits, cooperation in military technology, professional military training, an annual defense dialogue at the deputy minister level and further arms sales. The two ministers also discussed establishing a joint venture to maintain, overhaul and repair Soviet-era and Russian military equipment and munitions acquired by Vietnam. General Shoigo once again raised the issue of streamlining administrative procedures for Russian naval ships to visit Cam Ranh Bay for repair and maintenance and for crew rest and relaxation. Ten days after General Thanh’s visit it was announced that Vietnam had signed a contract for the purchase of an additional twelve Sukhoi Su-30MK2 multirole jet aircraft armed with anti-ship missiles in a deal valued at US$450 million. The planes are to be delivered in three batches of four planes between 2014-2015. Vietnam has previously purchased 20 of the aircraft from Russia. Vietnam’s new submarine force, combined with additional Su-30s, will increase its ability to project power into its maritime zones in the South China Sea and provide an enhanced anti-access area denial capability.

China plays down friction over maritime claims

By Kittipong Thavevong

Chinese officials have portrayed the Asian power as a reliable and peace-loving close neighbour of Southeast Asia, at a time when top Chinese leaders make official visits to the region.  They also played down China's growing military might and its territorial conflict with certain member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean). They said it was just a "friction" that would not affect the overall Sino-Asean ties. Ma Mingqiang, secretary-general of the Asean-China Centre, which promotes cultural exchanges between China and Asean countries, compared both sides to close neighbours. "Close neighbours are better than faraway relatives," he said in Beijing. Jin Cheng, director general of Yunnan Provincial International Regional Cooperation Office, pointed to "inseparable connection" between China and Asean, with partial common borders and ethnic peoples on both sides of the borders. A senior Chinese diplomat in Beijing blamed "the media's extreme preoccupation with the South China Sea problem". He said the issue should not define China's ties with Asean. When Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Indonesia and Malaysia as part of a Southeast Asian charm offensive, he announced that China was committed to closer cooperation with Asean. This year also marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of a strategic partnership between Asean and China. Chinese foreign ministry officials also allayed concern over China's growing military might. Speaking to a group of Asean journalists during their recent trip to China, Qin Gang, spokesman for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that due to its long borders, China needs sufficient military power to defend itself. An official from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said sufficient military power was to avoid "mistakes" in the past, when a militarily weak China was repeatedly occupied by foreign powers.

Japan’s Pivot Should Be Sustained

By Phuong Nguyen

When Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visits Cambodia and Laos in October, he will become the first Japanese prime minister to tour all 10 ASEAN member countries in his first year in office. Japan has always been an important economic player and enjoys positive public sentiment in most Southeast Asian countries, but its policy toward Southeast Asia never went beyond the 1977 Fukuda doctrine, in which Japan stressed the building of mutual trust with Southeast Asia and pledged to forever renounce military power but it has never risen to a regional leadership role. Now, with its policy of rebalancing to Southeast Asia, the Abe government looks determined to revamp the country’s geopolitical identity in Asia. Governments in Southeast Asia find themselves in sync with the rationale behind Japan’s rebalance. In the context of Washington’s rebalance, key U.S. allies in Asia will need to step up efforts to safeguard common security interests in the region. For Japan, this means taking on greater responsibility for maritime security and freedom of navigation in the East and South China seas. In the past, governments in Southeast Asia did not always understand or recognize the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance to Washington’s wider engagement in Asia. Yet, they now see a strong Japan that dares to lead and a vibrant U.S.-Japan alliance as critical to regional stability and the shaping of future geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. The best scenario for the autonomy and stability of Southeast Asian states is one in which Washington views its alliance with Japan and overall Asia strategy as two sides of the same coin. A strong alliance with Japan affords the United States the resources to sustain its engagement with and role of security provider in the Asia Pacific, especially in the context of ongoing budget constraints in the United States. As much as ASEAN welcomes the U.S. rebalance, it is concerned about whether the policy can be sustained in the long run. Already the Syria conflict and the peace process in the Middle East have begun to consume much of the White House’s and State Department’s energies. In this context, Tokyo should realize that it is the only other actor in the Pacific theater with the tools and credibility to effectively champion democratic values, the rule of law, peaceful resolution of conflicts, and freedom of navigation and commerce. The Abe government has an opportunity to not only reverse Japan’s decline, but also help shape the future of the region, this time with support from Southeast Asian friends.

US-China tensions flare over South China Sea

By Peter Symonds

Tensions over the South China Sea flared again at the East Asia Summit (EAS) in Brunei, as US Secretary of State John Kerry sought to exploit maritime disputes to drive a wedge between China and members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). The EAS followed ASEAN talks and a two-day Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit on. Kerry, who was standing in for President Obama, insisted that all countries had an interest in the South China Sea to ensure freedom of navigation and the principle of unimpeded lawful commerce. The new Chinese leadership of President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang attempted to defuse the issue by conceding multilateral talks with ASEAN on a joint Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. The two leaders have been on a diplomatic offensive throughout South East Asia: Xi visited Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as attending the APEC summit, and Li will visit Thailand and Vietnam after taking part in the Brunei talks. Without naming the US, Li pointedly told the East Asian Summit: “Countries that are not parties to the disputes should not get involved. Freedom of navigation in the South China Sea has never been an issue and will never be one.” A joint statement issued after Li’s meeting with ASEAN leaders declared that all sides would “work towards the conclusion of a Code of Conduct… based on consensus.” In his remarks to the summit, Kerry deliberately fuelled the on-going dispute between China and the Philippines, tacitly backing the latter’s decision to take its claims to the UN for non-binding arbitration. “All claimants have a responsibility to clarify and align their claims with international law. They can engage in arbitration and other means of peaceful negotiation,” Kerry declared.