Weekly Bulletin (5 November - 11 November)

Activities of the Claimants

China

China begins to build desalinator

China began construction on a desalinator in the so-called Sansha city on Saturday (November 10^th) as part of a larger project that will also include a rainwater purification system. The project, which will be capable of processing 1,000 cubic meters of seawater daily upon its completion, will supply water for residents of Phu Lam Island, where the municipal government is seated, according to a spokesman from local economic planning body. The desalinator will cost 70 million yuan ($11.2 million) to build, while the overall cost of the island's water project is estimated to reach 210 million yuan.

China  to ramp up development on disputed island

China is to ramp up development on Phu Lam Island, a local government chief has said, in a move likely to stoke a growing territorial row with its neighbours. The development of roads, water supply and drainage systems will be stepped up in the Phu Lam Island, Luo Baoming, Chinese Communist Party secretary of southern Hainan Province told state television.

CNOOC finds "big" gas field in South China Sea

China's CNOOC Ltd (0883.HK) has found a "big" gas field in Yinggehai basin of the South China Sea, the chairman of its parent company said, as the offshore oil and gas specialist accelerates developing the vast but under-explored waters. Wang did not elaborate, saying the size of the reserve is being evaluated by the state. A gas reserve of at least 50 billion cubic metres, or about 1.6 trillion cubic feet, is typically considered a major discovery.

Four South China provincial regions conduct joint patrol in South China Sea

China's CNOOC Ltd (0883.HK) has found a "big" gas field in Yinggehai basin of the South China Sea, the chairman of its parent company said, as the offshore oil and gas specialist accelerates developing the vast but under-explored waters. Wang did not elaborate, saying the size of the reserve is being evaluated by the state. A gas reserve of at least 50 billion cubic metres, or about 1.6 trillion cubic feet, is typically considered a major discovery.

China's Liaoning aircraft carrier set for sea trials of take-offs and landings

A 19-day sea trial of China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, starting tomorrow is expected to include take-offs and landings by fighter jets. A navigation warning has been issued by the Liaoning Maritime Safety Administration, banning all civilian vessels from part of the northern Bohai Sea from 8am November 11^th to 6pm on November 30^th.

Chinese Prime Minister calls for efforts to build China into maritime power

Chinese leader Hu Jintao on Thursday called for more efforts to build China into a maritime power. "We should enhance our capacity for exploiting marine resources, resolutely safeguard China's maritime rights and interests, and build China into a maritime power," Hu said in a report to the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.

Philippines

Philippines pushes sea row at Asia-Europe summit

The Philippines pushed its call for an international solution to overlapping claims in the South China Sea at an Asia-Europe summit, saying vital global shipping lanes were at stake. Philippine President Benigno Aquino raised the issue in bilateral meetings with leaders of the European Union as well as with Swiss President Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf and Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg in Laos.

Regional Snapshots

ASEM 9 concludes in Laos

The 9th ASEM Summit (ASEM 9) concluded in Vientiane , Laos, on November 6^th. The summit adopted two important documents, the “Vientiane Declaration on Strengthening Partnership for Peace and Development” and the “Chair’s Statement”. The Vientiane Declaration stresses ASEM leaders’ determination to enhance the partnership for peace, stability, development and prosperity between the two continents and the world over and to support the members to fulfill the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015.

ASEAN, Australia pledge to strengthen cooperation

Southeast Asian countries and Australia vowed to further cooperate in different fields as the 25th ASEAN-Australia Forum concluded here on November 6^th. "The participants pledged to strengthen cooperation in areas such as: combating of transnational crimes, including terrorism and trafficking in persons; promotion of human rights; maritime cooperation; environment, climate change and biodiversity; and food and energy security," said the Co-Chairs' Statement released after the forum.

Vietnam, China discuss less sensitive fields

Vietnam and China exchanged views on projects of priority cooperation in marine environmental protection, marine science research, search and rescue at sea, and natural disaster prevention at the second round of negotiations on less sensitive fields at sea in Hanoi on November 6^th-8^th. The two sides agreed to assign expert teams to promptly conduct research and contribute preliminary opinions on these priority projects, which are scheduled for further discussions at the next round of negotiations in early 2013.

Australia to hold 15^th Annual Chiefs of Defense Conference

The 15th Annual Chiefs of Defense Conference was held in Sydney this week bringing together a number of Asia-Pacific Defence Chiefs. The conference theme was “Two Oceans, One Region: Strengthening security in the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean”. Co-hosted by Australia’s Chief of the Defence Force, General David Hurley, and Commander US Pacific Command, Admiral Samuel J. Locklear, the Conference featured eminent speakers from around the world to examine common regional security issues.

Commentaries & Analyses

Thanks Climate Change: Sea-Level Rise Could End South China Sea Spat

Most of the atolls, banks and islands that make up the SCS are merely a few inches or feet above sea level at high tide.  Often times, they flood over during typhoon season and have to be evacuated.  With environmental predictions of sea-level rise on the order of 3 to 6 feet during the remainder of the 21st century, what would happen if the “dry” areas of the SCS became submerged? With imminent sea-level rise on the horizon, the low-lying islands of the SCS will likely disappear; thus jeopardizing the framework of this pivotal convention, while scuttling the various claims.  For the Chinese, a tremendous amount of EEZ-based territory would be potentially lost as underscored by their infamous nine-dash line that dips deep into the SCS.  In the background of rising sea level, it would behoove China to consolidate and legitimize its claims soon, either through diplomatic means or force, rather than later.  This would likewise be true for the other claimants. 

China Not Amenable To Conflict Resolution On South China Sea

The most important point that is overlooked in academic confabulations on the South China Sea conflict is that China’s rigidity, intransigence and brinkmanship on this conflict is not confined to just gaining control of the vast energy resources and other deposits in the disputed region. China’s overarching template on perpetuating the South China Sea conflict is strategic and military. Strategically and militarily, China views the entire South China Sea conflict through the prism of its global and regional rivalry with the United States. It is a strategic pressure point that is available to China against the United States, with the pressure more on the United States. In addition, China is encouraged to be less amenable for conflict-resolution and regional cooperation in relation to the South China Sea conflict, additionally by the following factors: (1) China’s political and military arrogance flowing from its highly enhanced military profile as a revisionist power (2) China’s asymmetric military preponderance over its neighbours to the dispute (3) Hedging policies of ASEAN disputants in relation to China (4) Lack of a united ASEAN against China’s domineering postures on the conflict (5) United States own China-hedging policy attitudes in relation to China.'

Asia’s Four Big Questions for Obama’s Second Term

Over the past four years, U.S. tensions with China have ebbed and flowed; ties to allies have at times frayed and at times been bolstered. Countries across Asia have, of course, experienced and perceived the first Obama administration in different ways. But for now, as leaders in Tokyo, Beijing, Jakarta, and elsewhere look ahead to the next four years, they are all asking themselves the same four major questions: 1) What is the fate of the Asia pivot? Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell are generally considered to be the pivot’s architects. But in what may prove an unfortunate turn for the pivot, they are also widely expected to depart the Obama administration. 2) Will the Asia-Pacific military balance continue to shift in China’s favor? Maintaining a favorable military balance in Asia is a capital-intensive effort and, with U.S. Central Command necessarily sucking up attention and resources, one the United States is already failing to adequately fund.  Strategic stability in Asia could suffer for it. 3) Will the United States get serious about trade? Now, with the pivot’s future questionable and with the Democratic Party set to expand its majority in the Senate, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (also not an Obama initiative) may see its already-limited momentum stalled. 4) Can the president’s economic plan kick start U.S. growth? America’s economic performance over the past four years has lagged, and export-driven economies on the far side of the Pacific have suffered for it. If President Obama can turn things around—an unfortunately big if—countries across Asia will benefit.

The Asian Tigers of Nationalism

Today, East Asia – especially China – is awash in a sea of nationalism. The patterns of this age-old scourge are familiar, featuring national narratives based on a supposed record of victimization. In China’s case, the narrative revolves around “the century of shame,” when China was too weak to defend itself against encroachments on its sovereignty, and the idea that it should never have to succumb again. Whether this outbreak of nationalism will end soon depends on the willingness of governments in the region – not just China’s – to take a stand and appeal to their publics to cease and desist. China, lacks the institutional framework needed to channel this sentiment into the political process. This does not mean that opposition disappears, much less moderates itself; rather, it simmers and incubates – and gathers strength. China needs to rein in these processes. However it is done, China has no choice but to embrace a world order based on stable relationships among countries – including its own neighbors. Indeed, whether nationalists like it or not, this is the future that China has, in effect, already chosen. China’s leaders need to stand up and articulate more clearly to the country’s restive public this vision of membership in an interdependent world.