Weekly Bulletin (4 March - 10 March)

Activities of the Claimants

China

Chinese submersible set to dive

The deep-sea submersible, Jiaolong, has undergone a series of upgrades and will head to the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean in June for a series of dives. "Jiaolong is entering a trial period ahead of a busy schedule," said Liu Feng, director of the China National Deep Sea Center. Liu said the first dive will be in the South China Sea in June, for scientific research, while the rest will likely be conducted in two areas in the western Pacific in July, pending approval by the International Seabed Authority for China's application to explore for cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts.

China Carries Combined Patrol in South China Sea

A joint Chinese sea and air patrol is being carried out in the South China Sea for the first time. Wu Jiansheng heads the Maritime Safety Administration for the province of Guangdong said: "In view of complicated maritime environment and wide navigable waters, we need a helicopter to join the patrol." The helicopter will be patrolling for illegal fishing and overloading.

Chinese helicopter patrols South China Sea

A Chinese maritime helicopter carried out a patrol mission in the South China Sea on March 4^th afternoon, the Guangdong Maritime Safety Administration said. The helicopter took off from the Haixun 31, a marine surveillance ship, to monitor maritime traffic in waters near Tu Nghia Island of the Spratly Islands. The administration said it was the first time for a Chinese maritime helicopter to be dispatched to patrol the South China Sea. The Haixun 31 is one of three Chinese marine surveillance ships that departed on February 28^th from Sanya Port in south China's Hainan Province to carry out patrol missions in the South China Sea.

China defense budget to grow 10.7% in 2013

China plans to raise its central government defense budget by 10.7 percent to 720.2 billion yuan (114.3 billion U.S. dollars) in 2013, according to a budget report submitted to the national legislature for review on March 5^th. The military spending will be used to improve living and working conditions of service people, make the armed forces more mechanized and information-based, and safeguard national security, the report on draft central and local budgets for 2013 says.

Chinese fleet returns after South China Sea patrols

A Chinese patrol team returned to Guangzhou on March 5^th after covering 2,455 nautical miles in the South China Sea to carry out illegal observation and patrol operations.

Chinese officials see establishing the so-called Sansha city as an important move

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi on March 6^th said that the establishment of the so-called Sansha city in the South China Sea last year was an important move taken by the central authorities after taking into consideration the situations at home and abroad. He added that establishment of the so-called Sansha city will bring great opportunities for the development and opening up of Hainan Province.

China speeds up construction in the so-called Sansha City

On the sidelines of the first session of the Chinese National People's Congress, Xiao Jie, mayor of the so-called Sansha said the local government has vowed to "delay not a single day" to accelerate the city's construction in the South China Sea. More office buildings will be built for local villagers' committees, Xiao said, adding that the city is also preparing ship routes and logistics supports for opening the islands and their surrounding waters for tourists.

Chines Premier stresses building consolidated national defense and powerful armed forces

Wen Jiabao, premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, delivered the report on the work of the government on behalf of the State Council at the First Session of the 12th National People's Congress on March 5^th. When speaking of the proposals for this year's work of the government, he stressed that "we will accelerate the modernization of national defense and the armed forces, build consolidated national defense and powerful armed forces, resolutely safeguard China's sovereignty, security and territorial integrity, and ensure peaceful development of the country".

Chinese fleet patrols South China Sea

A marine surveillance fleet departed from Sanya in south China's Hainan Province on March 8^th for patrols in the South China Sea. The team, consisting of three China Marine Surveillance ships -- Haijian 83, Haijian 262, and Haijian 263, as well as Haijian B-7103 helicopter, will illegally patrol waters around Hoang Sa Islands for nine days. He said the patrolling missions will include inspecting the islands and marine resources and ecology, and setting up a profile for each island.

China marine surveillance detachment stationed in the so-called Sansha City

A China Marine Surveillance detachment was officially stationed in so-called Sansha city on March 9^th. Yang Zhong, deputy head of the detachment, said the team will carry out patrolling and observation missions including the management of maritime space and protection of marine ecology and islands.

China to regroup marine bodies

Amid tense territorial disputes, China plans to restructure the country's top oceanic administration to enhance maritime law enforcement and better protect and utilize its marine resources. The move will bring China's maritime law enforcement forces, currently scattered among different ministries, under the unified management of a single administration, according to a report delivered by State Councilor Ma Kai at the annual parliamentary session on March 10^th. The new agency will still be named the National Oceanic Administration (NOA). It will have under its control the coast guard forces of the Public Security Ministry, the fisheries law enforcement command of the Agriculture Ministry and the maritime anti-smuggling police of the General Administration of Customs, Ma said.

China launches fishery patrols in South China Sea

China's fishery authority said on March 10^th that this year's fishery patrols in the South China Sea have been launched to ensure the safety and legitimate interests of Chinese fishermen. By March 10^th, 21 medium and large patrol ships and over 3,000 personnel had been dispatched to missions in key fishery areas, according to Liu Guimao, a senior official with the South China Sea Fishery Administration under the Ministry of Agriculture.

Taiwan officials: Military conflict in East, South China seas unlikely

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense said on March 9^th that military conflict over territorial disputes in the East and South China seas was unlikely at present but suggested that accidental clashes were possible. The ministry said in a report that regional stability has been challenged by North Korea's threat to cancel its 1953 cease-fire agreement with South Korea, its nuclear test last month and a rocket launch in December.

Vietnam

Vietnam reaffirms sovereignty over Hoang Sa, Truong Sa

In respone to the question: “China has sent marine patrol vessels to patrol the East Sea including Hoang Sa (Paracel) and Truong Sa (Spratly) archipelagos of Viet Nam.  How do you comment on this?”, Vietnamese Spokeperson Luong Thanh Nghi said: “Viet Nam affirms its sovereignty over Hoang Sa and Truong Sa archipelagos. Any activity in these areas without the consent of Viet Nam is an infringe upon Viet Nam’s sovereignty, to which we are resolutely opposed”.

Singapore

Singapore stresses importance of strengthening regional ties

Singaporean Foreign Minister K Shanmugam has stressed the importance of strengthening regional relationships to protect Singapore's interests in an unpredictable environment. He said in Parliament on March 8^th during the debate on his ministry's spending plans that ASEAN is strategically vital to Singapore as a buffer and an influence multiplier. However, he said, 2012 was not a year ASEAN could be proud of. ASEAN's unity and credibility were painfully tested by the South China Sea territorial dispute during Cambodia's chairmanship, while the ongoing developments in the South China Sea will continue to present challenges. Mr Shanmugam also said Brunei's chairmanship of ASEAN this year will be crucial. He described Brunei as an experienced and committed member and added that Singapore is confident it will promote consensus through consultations with all ASEAN members and dialogue partners.

The U.S.

U.S. Admiral: Chinese activities have raised tensions with neighbors

At the hearing themed: ”The Posture of the U.S. Pacific Command and U.S. Strategic Command”,  Admiral Samuel J. Locklear said that China’s strong rhetoric about the indisputable nature of its claims, combined with active patrolling by civil and military ships and aircraft in the air and waters surrounding Scarborough Reef and the Senkakus/Diaoyu Islands, has raised tensions with the Republic of the Philippines and Japan respectively. He also added that China has also used other economic and diplomatic tools to pressure those countries to accede to Chinese claims. 

Regional Snapshots

Russian Defence Minister pays first visit to Vietnam

5^th March | Vietnamplus

Russian Minister of Defence Sergei Shoygu on March 4^th began his two-day visit to Vietnam at the invitation of his Vietnamese counterpart, General Phung Quang Thanh. The visit is expected to help enhance the existing friendship between Vietnam and Russia and promote cooperation in military engineering, thereby boosting further defence relations between the two countries.

Command ship of US 7th Fleet to dock in Manila

The command ship of the United States 7th Fleet docked at the Manila South Harbor on Marth 7^th for a routine port call. In a statement, the US Embassy said the USS Blue Ridge (LCC-19) will make a port call and goodwill visit “that highlights the strong historic, community and military connections between United States and the Philippines.”

Philippines, Vietnam agree to boost defense cooperation

Defense officials of the Philippines and Vietnam have agreed to explore ways to boost the defense cooperation between their countries. The Defense department on March 6^th said that the matter was discussed during the meeting of the Joint Defense Cooperation Working Group of the two countries last week in Manila. “The meeting served as a mechanism for reviewing bilateral defense cooperation leading to a discussion of specific proposals on how to enhance defense cooperation between the two countries,” the department said in a statement.

India-Vietnam pact to protect vessels

India and Vietnam have firmed up an agreement on maritime cooperation which makes it mandatory on merchant vessels to help and protect each other's vessels in distress. The Indian Express has learnt that the pact, which has 18 clauses, has been approved by the Union Cabinet on March 7^th, after it was vetted by the Ministries of External Affairs and Home Affairs among other government agencies.

Russia seeks closer naval ties with Vietnam

Russia is looking to step up naval cooperation with Vietnam in the latter’s strategic Cam Ranh Bay in the East Sea though Vietnam is downplaying it, calling the cooperation “normal.” Asked whether recent bilateral talks on naval cooperation convey a message about the sovereignty dispute in the East Sea, Minister of Defense Phung Quang Thanh said: “It is a normal issue. Other countries [also] want to cooperate with the Vietnamese Navy.” Cam Ranh Port in central Vietnam was used by the US military during the Vietnam War which ended in 1975.

Commentaries & Analyses

5 Ways to Build a Stable U.S.-China Strategic Relationship

ByLewis A. Dunn, Ralph Cossa, and Li Hong

The relationship between the United States and China, one country an established power, the other a rising power, will decisively shape the 21st century world. Of the many aspects of this relationship, one of the most important is the strategic relationship, with “strategic” meaning the many ways that the two countries’ plans, doctrines, capabilities, postures, and actions interact across the nuclear offensive and defensive, outer space, and cyber realms. Building a stable and cooperative “win-win” strategic relationship serves the interests of both the United States and China. It would contribute to both countries’ security interests, not least by avoiding dangerous military competition, confrontation, or even conflict between our two countries in the years ahead. Five areas stand out for possible future dialogue and action. First, a top priority in the dialogue process between China and the United States should be to put in place a robust and continuing set of exchanges and other types of official interaction between our two militaries and defense establishments. Second, a process of mutual strategic reassurance to reduce misunderstandings and lessen mutual uncertainties is needed between our countries. Third, despite differences between the United States and China on the subject of transparency, the time appears ripe for new efforts in this area. A first step could be a sustained dialogue among experts on each country’s perspectives on the benefits and risks, possibilities and limits of transparency. Fourth, traditional treaty-based arms control between the United States and China remains premature. Even so, the two countries could begin a dialogue between their experts on arms control verification technology, practice, and experience as part of their overall commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Finally, despite important areas of non-proliferation cooperation, the two countries’ assessments of non-proliferation challenges, as well as their basic approaches to meet those challenges, often differ.

China and the South China Sea Disputes: New Strategies Interspersed with Old Ones

By Lye Liang Fook

While much has been written about the merits or demerits of the individual claims in the South China Sea (SCS), very little has been devoted to the new strategies adopted by China on the SCS issue. These new strategies ought to be highlighted as they have a direct bearing on the course of the SCS disputes as well as efforts to conclude a Code of Conduct on the SCS which the new ASEAN Secretary General Le Luong Minh wants to move towards.  First, China has used the strategy of stepping up of efforts to conduct oil and gas explorations in the SCS including in areas disputed by the ASEAN claimant states. Another new strategy that China has adopted is to step up its harassment and even disruption of foreign vessels that carry out seismic surveys, oil explorations or fishing in the SCS. In March 2011, the Philippines complained of harassment of its oil exploration vessels by Chinese patrol ships off Reed Bank (located 50 miles from the Philippine province of Palawan. Furthermore, China has become more adept at using administrative and legal measures to assert its claims in the SCS. China raised the administrative level of Sansha from a county-level to a prefectural-level city with the authority to administer their surrounding waters. Going further, the Hainan authorities (which administers Sansha city) passed legislation in November 2012 that authorizes its border police to board and turn back foreign ships illegally entering the province’s waters. Perhaps, even more significantly, is China’s resolve to go to the hilt in challenging the claims made by the ASEAN states. China has shown that it is prepared to up the ante and apply a host of measures ranging from political and diplomatic pressure to increasing its naval assets and even applying economic means to force the other party to back down.

Who's Bluffing Whom in the South China Sea?

By Vu Duc Khanh

Of all the scenarios of a conflict involving China, what can be certain is the potential for an immediate American intervention. While it is questionable that the US would directly intervene in any skirmish between nations, it is likely that Washington would use the conflict as an excuse for deploying a larger, if not more permanent, security force in Asia-Pacific. Although an increased American footprint would not be welcomed by all in the region, the US would prove to be an appropriate balance against China. Conversely, China would find an increased American presence unacceptable and a nuisance. Of course, neither country is likely to find itself staring down the barrel of the other's gun. China's plans for the region would undoubtedly be under greater American scrutiny if Washington decides to allocate more assets to Asia-Pacific. For the US, returning in force to Asia-Pacific would prove to be a costly endeavour, resources the country may or may not be able to muster. Yet, even if this is true, Washington's calculations may determine that the security risk posed by China in the region outweighs whatever investment required by the US. In conclusion, China's dispute with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Island, however heated, will prove to be a peripheral issue with respect to China's dispute with the several claimant states over the Spratlys. Ultimately, it is not improbable that China would seize one or several of the Spratlys under foreign control as a means to demonstrate its resolve in the disputes and the region; but to do so is to engage in unnecessary risk. The consequences stemming from such action are too great for Beijing to ignore. Although it is unlikely that China's neighbors would be able to mount more than a diplomatic protest, the fuss deriving from such an incident could prove more burdensome for China than it is willing to risk. The real consequence for China of any and all conflict in the region is and has always been an American intervention. As is, it would benefit Beijing to seek a peaceful, mutually agreed upon resolution, rather than brute force.

China: New leaders, same assertive foreign policy

By Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt

China's legislature meets last week to seal a power transfer to new leaders, but don't hold your breath for signs that the new team will ease up on the tough Chinese foreign policy that has ruffled feathers in its neighborhood recently. As the National People's Congress opened in Beijing, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Fu Ying warned that the country had sent an "important signal" to the region that it would respond "decisively" to provocations on territorial disputes. That means we can expect Beijing to continue with its "reactive assertiveness" foreign policy tactic. China has perfected this approach in its ongoing maritime disputes in the South and East China Seas. The approach allows Beijing to use perceived provocations as a chance to change the status quo in its favor -- all the while insisting the other party started the trouble. New Chinese leader Xi Jinping has played a key role in crafting China's response in its maritime disputes and was central to Beijing's response to Japan's island purchase announcement. He was put in charge of a maritime security leading group in mid-2012, then the "Office to Respond to the Diaoyu Crisis" in September. After taking control of both the communist party and the military in November, his rhetoric essentially formalized the reactive assertive tactic by repeating the importance of "peaceful development" while pledging zero tolerance for those who would harm China's "sovereignty, security or development interests." That is not to say that Beijing is necessarily looking for external troubles, as it remains preoccupied with maintaining the momentum of economic development and preventing domestic problems from erupting into potentially destabilizing unrest. But unfortunately, there is little appetite in Beijing for blunting the edge of China's "reactively assertive" foreign policy. If anything, opinions are going the other way. As Fu Ying put it: When facing provocations, the Chinese public "hopes that China will be even more assertive." If there is any perceived slight, no matter how minor, expect China to pounce.

Click here for pdf file.