Weekly Bulletin (3 September - 9 September)

Activities of the Claimants

China illegally expanding structures on Da Vanh Khan (Mischief Reef)

Rommel Banlaoi, executive director of think tank Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research, said the latest structures to be spotted in the area were a windmill, solar panels, a concrete platform suitable for use as a helipad and a basketball court.“Improved facilities bolster PRC’s (People’s Republic of China’s) effective occupation and increased vigilance in the disputed areas,” Banlaoi said.

China improves far-sea territory monitoring

The satellite remote sensing images of the Scarborough Shoal, Diaoyu Islands (called "Senkaku Islands" in Japanese) and Paracel Islands have been included in the state's dynamic monitoring and management system, according to the State Oceanic Administration of China.The system uses the satellite remote sensing, aerial remote sensing and ground surveillance to three-dimensionally and dynamically monitor the activities in the offshore area and provides decision support and information service for the Chinese governments of all levels, the marine sectors and the public.

China gives Cambodia aid and thanks for ASEAN help

Four loan agreements for unspecified projects worth about $420 million were signed when Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen visited China over the weekend, Cambodian Secretary of State for Finance Aun Porn Moniroth told a briefing late on Monday(3^rd September). Another three loan agreements, worth more than $80 million, are expected to be signed this year, Aun Porn Moniroth said, adding that Wen had also promised a grant of 150 million yuan ($24 million) as "a gift" for Cambodia to use on any priority project. "The Chinese government also voiced high appreciation for the part played by Cambodia as the chair of ASEAN to maintain good cooperation between China and ASEAN," Aun Porn Moniroth said.

“Countries outside the region should respect the choice made by countries concerned in the South China Sea issue”

In a press conference, China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei stated that: "The South China Sea issue should be solved through friendly consultation and negotiation between directly-concerned sovereign states, which is a consensus reached by China and ASEAN countries during the signing of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). Countries outside the region should respect the choice made by countries concerned in the South China Sea issue, keep to their pledge of not taking a position on the South China Sea issue and make more contribution to regional peace and stability, instead of the other way around."

Taiwan MPs visit Spratlys as garrison stages drill

Three Taiwanese legislators flew to a hotly-contested island in the South China Sea on Tuesday (4^th September) as garrison forces there held a live-fire drill, officials said, risking stirring up new tensions in the area. he lawmakers left an airbase in the south of Taiwan at around 7:00 am (2300 GMT Monday) on board a C-130 transport plane, arriving at Taiping, the biggest islet in the Spratlys, three-and-a-half hours later."The group observed a live-fire drill conducted by the coastguards," Hsieh Chin-chin, a coastguard spokesman said.

China pledges the safety of navigation in the South China Sea

Speaking at the meeting with U.S Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Beijing September 4, 2012, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jieche stated:”I want to add that the freedom and safety of navigation in the South China Sea is assured. There is no issue currently in this area, nor will there ever be issues in that area in the future.” He said that the South China Sea disputes should be solved through direct negotiations and friendly consultation, and he also insisted on the Chinese’s claims over the sovereignty of the disputed areas.

China urges U.S. to respect its sovereignty, territorial integrity, key interests

China on Wednesday (5^th September) urged the United States to earnestly respect its sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as take its key interests and people's feelings into consideration. The call was made by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao during his meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Wen also urged the U.S. to play a constructive role in dialogues and cooperation in Asia-Pacific affairs to maintain the region's overall peace and stability.

China warns over the U.S intervention in the South China Sea

Regarding the South China Sea issue, China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei said: "we noted that the US stated on different occasions that it would not take a position on the sovereignty dispute over the South China Sea. We hope that the US will live up to its words and make more contributions to regional peace and stability, instead of the other way around."

China to upgrade maritime satellite network

Chinaplans to launch eight satellites providing ocean and land data before 2020, a Chinese senior official said. "The planned satellite launches, including four satellites observing the color of the sea, two observing ocean currents and two maritime radar satellites before 2020, have been approved by the National Development and Reform Commission," Jiang Xingwei, director of the National Satellite Ocean Application Service, told China Daily at the third Digital Ocean Forum in Tianjin. The new satellites will greatly improve China's ability to observe and supervise the marine environment, he said. China already has three satellites that monitor its territorial waters and islands, including the Diaoyu Islands (called "Senkaku Islands" in Japanese) and Scarborough Shoal.

The Philippines

Philippines hails Clinton remarks on South China Sea

Philippine Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin said Clinton's backing for a peaceful resolution of the disputes and the passage of a "code of conduct" were objectives the Philippines had also been seeking. "We have long been trying to finalise (the code). This code of conduct will minimise any confrontation in the area," Gazmin told reporters.

US plane joins Philippine coastal exercise

A United States navy surveillance plane joined Philippine security forces on Thursday(6^th September) in an exercise aimed at safeguarding coastal areas in the strife-torn south, the Filipino exercise director said. The PC-3 Orion flew over the Davao Gulf in the south from an airport in the central Philippines in a mock mission to help local authorities track a sea-borne vessel, said Philippine Navy Captain Robert Empedrad. The exercise will help the US Navy to coordinate with the Philippine Navy, coastguard, maritime police and other agencies in securing the southern region of Mindanao, Empedrad said.

Singapore

Singaporean Prime Minister starts China visit

Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong arrived in Chengdu in southwest China's Sichuan Province on Sunday afternoon, starting a six-day official visit to China. During his stay in the province, he will visit a project resulting from cooperation between Singapore and Sichuan, as well as Yingxiu Town, which was the epicenter of May 2008's devastating earthquake. Besides Sichuan, Lee will also visit Beijing, where he will meet Chinese leaders including President Hu Jintao, top legislator Wu Bangguo, Vice President Xi Jinping and Vice Premier Li Keqiang.

Singapore calls for ASEAN solidarity

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, in his speech at the Central Party School in Beijing, has acknowledged that competing territorial claims in the South China Sea are a major issue for ASEAN. He said ASEAN should not take sides but instead adopt a position that is neutral, forward-looking and encourages the peaceful resolution of issues. He believes the 6-point principles, proposed by Indonesia and accepted by ASEAN, achieve this. Singapore also hopes that ASEAN and China will soon begin talks on a code of conduct in the South China Sea.

The U.S.

US submarine tender arrives in Subic

The submarine tender USS Frank Cable (AS-40) arrived for a 12-day routine port call at Subic Bay Monday morning, the Philippine Navy said. The ship, which provides support to Los Angeles class submarines, will stay until September 15. The stay will include replenishment and rest and relaxation for its crew, said navy spokesman Colonel Omar Tonsay.

The U.S. urges concerned parties to cooperate in solving the South China Sea dispute

In the meeting with her Indonesian counterpart Marty Natalegawa at Jakarta, U.S Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated the U.S “national interest” in the South China Sea. She pointed out:”We (the U.S.) believe the nations of the region should work collaboratively together to resolve disputes without coercion, without intimidation, without threats, and certainly without the use of force.”

Hillary Clinton visits ASEAN secretariat

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited the ASEAN Secretariat on Tuesday (4^th September), emphasizing the United States' commitment to see ASEAN continuing its growth as a vibrant, open region that is committed to regional and global peace and prosperity, a statement released by the ASEAN Secretariat said. Clinton also said she believed the ASEAN-United States relationship is stronger and more effective, adding that the United States views ASEAN as central to regional stability and economic progress in Asia Pacific.

Hillary Clinton:”It’s in everyone’s interest that China and ASEAN engage in a diplomatic process toward the shared goal of a code of conduct”

In a press conference with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Yiechi, U.S Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that achiving the Code of Cunduct of Parties in the South China Sea is in everyone’s interest. She reiterated that the United States does not take a position on competing territorial claims. The U.S interest is in the maintenance of peace and stability, respect for international law, freedom of navigation, and unimpeded lawful commerce.

Regional Snapshots

Vietnam, China hold strategic defence talks

The third Deputy Minister-level strategic defence talks took place in Hanoi on September 3 under the co-chair by Vietnam’s Deputy Defence Minister, Sen. Lieut. Gen. Nguyen Chi Vinh and Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, Sen. Lieut. Gen. Ma Xiaotian. For the Vietnam-China ties, Mr Nguyen Chi Vinh holds the view that it is urgent for both sides to continue with cooperation and dialogue to step up political trust between the two Parties, States and armies. Sharing the view with Deputy Minister Vinh, general Ma stated that China wants all disputes to be solved peacefully, without the use of force or threat to use force and with the observance of international law.

India, China to resume joint military exercises

Joint military exercises between India and China will be resumed after a four-year gap, defence minister AK Antony announced on Tuesday after talks in New Delhi with his Beijing counterpart. The two emerging Asian nations have had an often fractious relationship over their shared border, and they halted joint military exercises in 2008 due to a series of diplomatic spats including over visa issues.

International conference on East Sea (South China Sea) issues

Almost 150 scholars, researchers and diplomats from 20 countries, including Vietnam, gathered at the second international conference on the East Sea held by the Maritime Institute of Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur on September 4-5. Themed “Geo-strategic Developments and Prospects for Dispute Management”, the event focused on six main contents, including the East Sea disputes and their impact on the security environment in the Asia-Pacific, assessment of the current situation in the East Sea, international legal context of East Sea disputes, mechanism to settle disputes, long-term measures and the orientations for settling the disputes.

Australia, Indonesia sign framework for closer defense cooperation

Australiaand Indonesia are set to broaden cooperation in a number of defense-related areas after ministers from both countries signed an agreement on security and defense on Wednesday (5^th September). The document covers broad aspects of cooperation, aiming to strengthen and develop cooperation in the fields of defense policy, inter-agency relations, counterterrorism, maritime security, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, military logistics, medical services support, peacekeeping and intelligence.

Japan, Singapore urge settling of South China Sea row based on international law

Japan and Singapore on Saturday (8^th September) urged China and Southeast Asian countries with competing territorial claims in the South China Sea to resolve their differences in line with international law, including the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and his Singaporean counterpart Lee Hsien Loong agreed to promote tie-ups at a summit of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations and its dialogue partners slated for November in Phnom Penh, where the South China Sea issue is expected to top the agenda, a senior Japanese official said.

Philippines,U.S., Australia could hold trilateral military exercises

Philippine Department of National Defense spokesman Peter Paul Galvez said that the Senate’s ratification of the Philippines-Australia Status of Visiting Forces Agreement in July allows Australian and Filipino forces to conduct joint military exercises. “It's currently being explored,” said Galvez, referring to the possible exercises between the three countries. “It is possible to do that now with the SOVFA [ratification]. It's currently being studied how that can be done,” he said. Galvez said that the US also has to agree to involve the Australian troops in the joint exercises.

China's Xi cancels Clinton meeting

China's likely next president Xi Jinping has cancelled a meeting with the visiting US Secretary of State, a US official said Wednesday (5^th September), amid friction between the two global powers. "We were informed after 11:00 pm last night by the Chinese side that for unexpected scheduling reasons, the meeting between Vice President Xi and Secretary Clinton is not going to happen today," said the official, who requested anonymity.

New peace council prefers silent tactics

The newly formed Asian Peace and Reconciliation Council (APRC) will adopt non-interference and silent and quiet diplomacy as its strategy, said its chairman Surakiart Sathirathai. The council consists of 16 founding members who are mostly former presidents, prime ministers and diplomats.

Commentaries & Analyses

China’s not so scary navy

The PLAN is acquiring the hardware it needs to prosecute a major regional naval showdown. Simultaneously, an increasingly-capable, but still limited number, of vessels can fight pirates, rescue Chinese citizens trapped by violence abroad, and make “show-the-flag” visits around the world. But the PLAN is not set up to confront the U.S. at sea more than 1,000 miles from China. Even if the PLAN surged production of key vessels such as replenishment ships, the resources and steps needed to build a globally-operational navy leave Beijing well over a decade away from achieving such capability in hardware terms alone. Building the more complex human software and operational experience needed to become capable of conducting large-scale, high-end out-of-area deployments could require at least another decade. Meanwhile, however, China’s challenges at home and on its contested periphery remain so pressing as topreclude such focus for the foreseeable future.

The bottom line is that China’s present naval shipbuilding program aims to replace aging vessels and modernize the fleet, not to scale-up a modern fleet to the size and composition necessary to support and sustain high-end blue water power projection.

China’s Greatest Challenge: Not America, But Itself

The China that Xi and the incoming leadership inherit is one in the midst of a delicate transition. The export-led system that China’s leaders had relied on for the past several decades benefited their country tremendously. In the process, however, the model also strained Chinese society in significant ways, for which the consequences are now only beginning to emerge. The build-up of internal pressure, coupled with the inability of developed economies to sustain China’s export-oriented economy, means that efforts to rebalance—internally and, in the process, externally—must take place.

It is imperative that U.S. policymakers realistically assess China’s internal challenges if they hope to understand Beijing’s intentions and insecurity, its policies’ impact on the globalized economy, its relations with Washington, and, ultimately, what type of power it will be within the existing international system. For what matters most is not so much Xi’s ability to present himself and his country abroad—which is, nevertheless, no doubt, important—but how successful he will be in guiding China through a decade of painful but necessary transitions. In this, perhaps all countries are not so different after all: that, as a legendary American politician once said, "all politics are local."

When will the U.S. ratify UNCLOS?

Of course, Secretary Clinton’s lectures about the Code of Conduct would be more credible if the United States were a party to UNCLOS. But Congressional Republicans continue to stall ratification of the treaty. Senate Democrats will likely bring UNLOS to a vote after the November elections, during the lame-duck session of Congress, when some representatives might be less averse to casting a controversial vote. But even then, despite universal support for the convention from Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, and U.S. multinational corporations, republican Senators might still marshal a blocking coalition. And later in the future, the treaty’s prospects obviously hinge on the November elections. The 2012 republican platform expressly condemns the treaty—in a notable departure from the Republican administration of George W. Bush. While Mitt Romney has remained silent on the issue this year, he would be unlikely to support ratification. It is high time for the United States to ratify the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. With tensions rising in the South and East China Seas, the need is only growing.

Island Grabbing in Asia

The three bodies of water in East Asia -- the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea -- are home to hundreds of disputed islands, atolls, and shoals. And in the last few years, the diplomatic and militaristic struggles to assert authority have become increasingly brazen. there is little reason to suspect that Beijing, Hanoi, Manila, Seoul, or Tokyo will relent in the coming years. A desire for cheap and nearby energy will only increase, and as Asian economies grow, nationalistic impulses will become more assertive. Government officials have been quick to exploit these impulses for their own political advantage, but they also recognize that increased tensions and belligerency could undermine efforts to promote economic cooperation in the region, further slowing growth. Eventually, therefore, they are likely to seek an alternative to violent confrontation. This could involve joint development of the disputed areas (as Malaysia and Thailand have chosen to do in a disputed chunk of their own offshore waters) and accelerated development of renewable resources.

Everything You Think You Know About China Is Wrong

For the last 40 years, Americans have lagged in recognizing the declining fortunes of their foreign rivals. Could the same malady have struck Americans when it comes to China?Could the same malady have struck Americans when it comes to China? The latest news from Beijing is indicative of Chinese weakness: a persistent slowdown of economic growth, a glut of unsold goods, rising bad bank loans, a bursting real estate bubble, and a vicious power struggle at the top, coupled with unending political scandals. Many factors that have powered China's rise, such as the demographic dividend, disregard for the environment, supercheap labor, and virtually unlimited access to external markets, are either receding or disappearing. Perceptions of a strong and pushy China also persist because of Beijing's own behavior. The United States should reassess the basic premises of its China policy and seriously consider an alternative strategy, one based on the assumption of declining Chinese strength and rising probability of an unexpected democratic transition in the coming two decades.It is of course premature to completely write off the Communist Party's capacity for adaptation and renewal. China could come roaring back in a few years, and the United States should not ignore this possibility. But the party's demise can't be ruled out, and the current signs of trouble in China have provided invaluable clues to such a highly probable seismic shift. U.S. policymakers would be committing another strategic error of historic proportions if they miss or misread them.

The Neverending Story: Drama in the South China Sea

Chinacould gain a great deal from backing the formulation of an effective COC. Its image in the region would receive a considerable boost; calls for greater U.S. involvement in the region would diminish; and the chances of conflict over some tiny island would recede. However, these attractive aspects of cooperative diplomacy are outweighed by Beijing’s instinct not to give any ground where sovereignty issues are concerned. “When it comes to high-stake, high-politics issues, such as territorial disputes and strategic rivalries, international agreements have limited impact,” suggests Zhang Baohui, an associate professor at Lingnan University in Hong Kong. “Overall I think China is a status quo power on the South China Sea issues,” Zhang but observes that upholding the status quo cuts both ways: China won’t facilitate a lasting solution, but it won’t be the one to provoke a confrontation either. It will only react forcefully to perceived provocations on the part of others, as in its recent dispute with Manila. But what is China’s ultimate objective in all of this? “They just want to play for time, and to drag it out as long as possible,” argues by Storey, a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore. “What is China’s end game? I don’t think they know themselves.” Sadly, there is no Plan B for the South China Sea. China and ASEAN appear locked into the futile process of formulating a Code of Conduct that won’t address the types of conduct that actually need addressing.