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Activities of the Claimants

China

China does not want to see a conflict at Scarborough Shoal

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In a press conference on January 28th, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei said that the situation over the Scarborough is mainly stable and the Chinese side does not want to see a setback. According to him, last year's Scarborough Shoal incident was caused by Philippine warships' harassment of Chinese fishermen and fishing boats.

“Sansha” taking shape with projects

The so-called “Sansha” authorities vowed to accelerate the construction of infrastructure and a series of projects that were expected to be finished this year. "Within the year, we will finish the operation of the first phase of the new port of Phu Lam Island, a seawater desalination plant, a sewage treatment plant and a garbage collection and transfer system," Xiao Jie, mayor of “Sansha”, said. A new supply ship, the Sansha No 1, will be completed in early 2014 to help transport much-needed materials to the island, Xiao added.

Chinese President Xi Jinping vows no surrender on 'legitimate rights, core interests'

China will remain on a path of peaceful development, yet it will "never give up" legitimate rights or sacrifice core interests, Chinese Party chief Xi Jinping said. China will adhere to an "open, cooperative and win-win" development model, Xi said at a group study session held with members of the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau. However, "no country should presume that we will engage in trade involving our core interests or that we will swallow the 'bitter fruit' of harming our sovereignty, security or development interests," Xi said.

Chinese navy depart for West Pacific training

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A Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy fleet has set off from a military port in east China's Qingdao City for regular open-sea training in the West Pacific Ocean, military sources revealed. The fleet departed on January 29th and comprises three ships -- the missile destroyer Qingdao and the missile frigates Yantai and Yancheng -- carrying three helicopters, all from the North China Sea Fleet under the PLA Navy. During the voyage, the fleet is scheduled to conduct multi-program training sessions in the sea area where China has been carrying out regular patrols, according to the sources. Comprising the missile destroyer Qingdao and the missile frigates Yantai and Yancheng, the fleet entered the South China Sea at 11:40 a.m. on February 1st after taking about five hours to pass through the Bashi Channel.

CNOOC set to increase spending on deepwater drilling

China's biggest offshore oil driller CNOOC Ltd said on January 30th it plans to step up deepwater exploration this year, despite ongoing island disputes between China and its neighboring countries. The State-owned company plans to spend up to $2.66 billion on exploration, up from $2.11 billion in 2012. A total of 140 exploration wells will be drilled, up from 138 in 2012. "Exploration programs in 2013 remain intensive, and more efforts will be made in deepwater exploration," Zhong Hua, CNOOC's chief financial officer, said at a news conference in Hong Kong. CNOOC also plans to start production at 10 new offshore oilfields in Chinese waters this year, with 24 more projects under construction. Seven of the 10 new fields are located in the South China Sea and one in the East China Sea.

China opposes taking sea disputes to UN

Regarding the Philippines' claim to ask for international arbitration on the South China Sea dispute between China and the Phillipines, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei said that “China disapproves of such an act that violates consensus and replaces it by another one.”

The Philippines

Philippines draws up own maritime map

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A new Philippine map officially renaming maritime areas in the western part of the archipelago  the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) and depicting the extent of the country’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) is awaiting the approval of Malacañang. The map, produced by the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (Namria) and covering islands in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) being claimed by China, was “still being reviewed,”  according to the Office of Executive Secretary Paquito Ochoa Jr..

Philippines deploys more troops in Spratlys island

The Philippines has increased the number of troops deployed on five islets, two sand bars and two reefs that it claims in the disputed Spratly islands to bolster its military presence in the contested South China Sea, a senior military intelligence official told Kyodo News. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said at least 126 soldiers were deployed in November last year, 2.5 times more than the previous deployment. Lt. Gen. Juancho Sabban, the Philippine military's commander in the area, neither confirmed nor denied the recent deployment.

Philippines to buy 12 fighter jets from South Korea

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The FA-50s will be the first fighter jets to be operated by the Philippine air force since it retired the last of its US-designed F-5 fighters in 2005, said President Benigno Aquino's spokesman Edwin Lacierda. Lacierda said the jets would be used for "training, interdiction and disaster response" and would use their aerial cameras to survey areas.

Singapore

"The sooner, the better" for COC on South China Sea

Singaporean Foreign Affairs Minister K Shanmugam has reiterated the need for a Code of Conduct (COC) on the South China Sea, saying the sooner it is started the better. Mr Shanmugam pointed out that the actual disputes will take a very long time to settle and stressed that the issue is how countries behave so that the disputes do not escalate into clashes, which could be terrible for the region.

The U.S.

US lawmakers back Philippine decision to take China disputes to UN arbitration

A visiting US congressional delegation expressed support to the Philippine government’s decision to take long standing territorial disputes with China before a United Nations arbitration body. Philippine Foreign Affairs Assistant Secretary Carlos Sorreta said the five-man US delegation led by Congressman Edward Royce (Republican, California), chairman of the House committee on Foreign Affairs, “expressed their full support” to Manila’s efforts “to resolve the situation in a peaceful manner and in accordance to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.”

Regional Snapshots

Vietnam, UK strengthen national defence ties

Senior-Lieutenant General Do Ba Ty, Chief-of-the-General-Staff cum Deputy Defence Minister, on January 28th received UK Defence Under Secretary of State Lord Astor of Hever during his working visit to Vietnam from Jan. 26-30. Ty spoke highly of the fruitful cooperation in national defence between Vietnam and the UK, regarding Lord Astor’s visit as the first by a senior official of the UK Ministry of Defence since the two countries established diplomatic ties four decades ago. The UK defence official pledged to do his best to foster bilateral relations, especially defence ties.

Indonesia, Japan boost defence cooperation

General Eiji Kimizuka, Chief of Staff of the Japan Ground Self-Defence Force, made a working visit to Indonesia on January 28th to enhance the two countries’ defence cooperation. Kimizuka visited the Indonesian army’s Special Forces Command (Kopassus) and held talks with its Commander, Major General Agus Sutomo. They said they hope that there will be further delegation exchanges between the two armies to boost mutual understanding as well as bilateral cooperation, especially in emergency response, disaster relief and rescue.

India, Japan make common cause to thwart China's maritime moves

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Faced with a China that is aggressively pursuing its territorial interests in the South and East China Seas, Japan and India decided to coordinate moves and exercises in the first ever maritime dialogue held here. Interestingly, India decided to hold a maritime dialogue with China over a month before the India-Japan decision. The Indian move to start talks with Japan ahead of the dialogue with Beijing points to a stress on New Delhi's security priorities.

Commentaries & Analyses

Can Military Diplomacy Keep the Peace in 2013?

By Rory Medcalf

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Is military diplomacy a contradiction in terms? Not according to two prominent Australians, who have recently been talking up the prospects for bilateral and multilateral military exercises as a way of managing security tensions in Asia. Recently former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd outlined a roadmap for security cooperation in Asia, especially between China and the United States. Australia’s serving defense force chief, General David Hurley, gave an interview in which he discussed the possibility that Australia would host joint exercises with Chinese forces, and possibly also trilaterally with the Americans, as a way to build habits of communication and predictability. The idea that constructive interactions like this can build trust and reduce risks of conflict is a fine one. A more important test of strategic goodwill and an international diplomatic priority for 2013 should be to encourage China’s navy and other maritime forces to engage constructively with their counterparts in a much more direct form of confidence-building. That is, establishing protocols and communication links for preventing or managing incidents in contested waters. Here the onus is on frontline players – China, Japan, the United States, Vietnam, the Philippines – rather than well-meaning middle powers such as Australia. But progress on this front will first require a basic political decision by China – and other claimants - to eschew the use of risky seamanship and provocative maritime maneuvers as policy tools in advancing maritime claims. As things stand, it is likely to be another uncomfortable year in the waters along China's perilous edge.

Manila Begins Legal Proceedings over South China Sea Claims

By Gregory Poling

On January 22nd, the Philippines fired a legal shot across China’s bow with Secretary of State Albert del Rosario’s announcement that Manila had submitted a motion to the United Nations requesting that China’s South China Sea claims be brought before an arbitral tribunal. Q1: Why did the Philippines choose to seek arbitration? Last year was probably the most damaging to the Philippines’ position in the South China Sea dispute since China occupied Mischief Reef in 1995 over Philippine objections. After three years of steadily escalating the aggression with which it pursued its claims, Chinese vessels forced a months-long standoff at Scarborough Shoal, inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ). In the end, the Philippines simply lacked the muscle to force the Chinese to back down, and Scarborough Shoal is now in China’s controlled. After a year of seeing its own relative weakness, a disappointing lack of support from ASEAN, and continued Chinese intransigence, the Philippines decided to internationalize the South China Sea dispute in a big way. Q2: What is the Philippine case? First, it argues that China’s “nine-dash line” is not supported by UNCLOS, and therefore the only valid maritime claims in the South China Sea are to the territorial seas, EEZs, and continental shelves adjacent to coastlines and islands. Second, the Philippines requests the tribunal to rule on whether certain “islands” occupied by China are islands at all. It also argues that certain high-tide features on which China has built structures are entitled to only a territorial sea, not a 200 nautical mile EEZ or continental shelf. Q3: What comes next? In the formation of an arbitral tribunal under UNCLOS, the next step is the selection of judges. The tribunal will include a panel of five—one selected by each party to the dispute and three from third countries upon which the disputants will agree. Once the five arbitrators are selected, they will determine whether or not the case falls within their jurisdiction. However, the Philippines has intentionally crafted a subtle and strictly limited case to ensure that the tribunal will choose to accept it. Assuming the judges take up the case, Secretary del Rosario predicted that it would last three to four years, before the tribunal will issue its “award”, or decision. The awards of an arbitral tribunal are declared by UNCLOS to be binding on both parties of the dispute. It is also important to note that China cannot obstruct the proceedings of the tribunal. Appendix VII of UNCLOS, which covers the workings of an arbitral tribunal, is explicit that the refusal of either party to participate will neither prevent nor prejudice the decision of the tribunal. The big question will be whether or not Beijing follows the “binding” decision of the tribunal; there are no sanctions or repercussions enumerated by UNCLOS should it fail to do so and the notion of outside interference to force it to abide by the findings is nearly inconceivable. That would be a crippling blow to China’s image. The argument constantly put forth from the Chinese, that a rising China will be a responsible player in the global order and a protector of the global commons, would be undone overnight. Recognizing that, China might well deem the price of refusal too high and abide by the tribunal’s decision.

What’s the real agenda of China?

By Chair Wrecker

There are vital perspectives that will lead to an understanding of why China is unusually aggressive in the South China Sea: First, the Chinese fear the announced US shift of its military power to the Pacific area, to include the South China Sea. The South China Sea is a main artery for China’s needs and it’s to be expected that China will resist US domination of that vital area. Second, it’s a fact that China has a justified fear of not being able to supply its growth requirements with the minerals and energy required. The South China Sea is believed to have beneath it one of the biggest oil and gas deposits. Around the South China Sea are countries like the Philippines that are rich in ore and mineral resources. Third, US interest in the South China Sea, as perceived by China, is intended to control China’s tapping of the oil and gas in the disputed area, as well influence, if not control, those countries that can supply the ore and minerals that China’s economy will need. Fourth, China is paving the way to claim its leadership position in what has been called the China Century — this century. Even the National Intelligence Council, the highest US intelligence body, admitted in their 2025 Global Trends Report that China would overtake the US as the biggest economy and the most dominant world power. This projection was made before the financial meltdown in the US. It’s imperative for a China that will assume the role of a dominant world power to secure its boundaries and its economic requirements.

Economic, Not Security Strategy, Key for Stability in South China Sea

By Philip Haxel

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It is highly doubtful that a US military with shrinking budgets and reduced ambitions will be able to successfully project a posture of dissuasion in a distant region ripe with rapidly modernizing militaries. Alternatively, the US should utilize its diplomatic capital to facilitate economic partnership and institutional capacity building, as a means to defuse tensions. This strategy would entail multiple dimensions. First, US officials should work towards including ASEAN members in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a proposed trade agreement that will reduce trade and investment barriers in the region. Second, US officials should promote the discussion of joint development of resources, particularly in the South China Sea. Precedent for this arrangement can be found in the Malaysia-Thailand joint development area, of which 8.5 trillion cubic tons of natural gas have been extracted since 1990, even as both countries still have formally disputed claims over the territory. Third, the United States should advocate the strengthening of ASEAN’s formal mechanisms to resolve conflicts in a peaceful manner, including the transformation of ASEAN’s 2002 code of conduct in the South China Sea from a declaration to a legal code.  Stability in the Asia-Pacific is essential to the growth of a global economy that continually appears on the verge of reentering recession. In the South China Sea, laying the foundations for economic integration in the present will provide for continued economic dynamism that may preclude the propensity for conflict in the future. The Obama administration would be wise to utilize deft diplomacy composed of positive incentives instead of brute force and zero sum containment policies.

South China Sea code of conduct between Asean and China in peril

ByGreg Torode

If China needed any further excuses to place on the back burner negotiations with Asean over worsening tensions in the South China Sea, the Philippines' actions in the past week may have provided them with one. Manila's move to use the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea to force a ruling on China's controversial claim to virtually the entire South China Sea is as bold as it is intriguing, setting the stage for several years of legal exposure that will not be welcomed by a Beijing increasingly determined to bend the region to its will. It may also complicate an already fractious situation between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, further imperiling already delayed talks over a once-vaunted code of conduct, according to insiders. Manila's gambit may allow China to further delay talks by insisting the time simply isn't ripe. Filipino officials insist they are still committed to the Asean track but say being backed into a corner after 18 years of bilateral diplomacy with Beijing over the sea issue has only placed their sovereignty at greater risk. "With our sovereignty under direct threat, at some point we've got to act to protect our national interests, and that point has arrived," one official said. "It is all about finding the best way to a durable solution and we felt we couldn't wait any longer." Even before Manila's move, Asean diplomats were talking privately of a code not being ready until 2015, or even later. And even if such a document is eventually produced, it might not go much further than the 2002 model. If that proves to be the case, a worried Manila will have lost little by voting with its feet and going to the UN.

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