Weekly Bulletin (27 August - 2 September)

Activities of the Claimants

China

China keeps presence at Scarborough

China has maintained its naval presence in waters of the disputed Scarborough Shoal just off Zambales province, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario said Monday (August 27^th). Three Chinese maritime surveillance ships were spotted in the area, according to the last surveillance report received 2 weeks ago by the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs, del Rosario said in an interview with radio dzMM.

China to opens offshore blocks

China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC), thelargest oil and gas producer in China, said on Tuesday (August 28^th) it has opened 26 new offshore blocks. The blocks were the second batch made available by CNOOC, with one block located in Bohai Bay, three in the East China Sea, and another 22 in the South China Sea, according to a statement on CNOOC's website.The 26 blocks cover a total area of 73,754 square km, the statement said.

China to build 11 unmanned aerial vehicles bases

According to the Chinese State Oceanic Administration, 11 unmanned aerial vehicle bases will be built in 11 coastal provinces and regions to monitor the country's vast water areas. Unmanned aerial vehicles can fly in set routes, recording and sending back timely remote sensing data, improving China's capacity in water monitoring, said Yu Qingsong, director of the water management department of the Chinese State Oceanic Administration. Each base will have at least one unmanned aerial vehicle, according to the administration.

Chinese Defense Minister to visit India

Chinese Defense Minister General Liang Guanglie will head a 23-member delegation including high ranking members of the Chinese defense and military establishment during his four day official visit to India, beginning September 2^nd. It will be the first visit by any Chinese Defence Minister to India in the past seven years. During his visit, General Liang will meet Defence Minister A. K. Antony and hold discussions on strengthening defence ties between the two neighbours.

China's aircraft carrier Varyag begins 10th trial

After an almost one-month brief hiatus, China’s aircraft carrier Varyag has departed from Dalian Port to embark on its 10th sea trial. But this time the sea voyage will face some challenge brought by Typhoon Bolaven, which is expected to make landfall in northeast China’s Liaoning province on Tuesday. The Liaoning Maritime Safety Administration has imposed a sea curfew to prevent other vessels from entering the area where the aircraft carrier will undergo trials.

Taiwanese academics visit contested islands in South China Sea

A 14-member delegation from National Taiwan University returned to Taiwan on Wednesday (August 29^th) after visiting Ba Binh Island, the biggest island in the Spratlys, on board a Navy frigate, the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense said in a statement. “Naval officers and soldiers also visited the island to reiterate sovereignty claims over the Spratlys,” the statement said.

Taiwan’s security chief visits Spratlys

Taiwan’s security chief and several top officials have visited contested islands in the South China Sea to press Taipei’s claim to the disputed territory.National security council chief Hu Wei-jen, Interior Minister Lee Hong-yuan, coast guard chief Wang Jinn-wang and other officials landed at Ba Binh Island, the biggest islet in the Spratlys, on Friday (August 31^st) on a military jet, the council said.

Vietnam

Old atlas affirms Vietnam’s sovereignty over Hoang Sa, Truong Sa

The Vietnam Buddhist Sangha Central Committee on August 28^th announced an atlas under the Guangxu reign of the Chinese Qing dynasty, proving Hainan Island to be the last Chinese strip of land in the region. The book was kept in the Phuoc Trang bookcase at the house of Tran Dinh Ba (1867-1933), who copied it when he worked as the Minister of Justice under the Khai Dinh reign (1916-1925).

Vietnam rejects China’s illegal oil bid invitation

In response to the Chinese oil corporation’s invitation for international bids for 26 blocks, including the 65/12, Vietnamese Foreign Ministry’s Spokesperson Luong Thanh Nghi said: “China’s invitation for international bid for the block (65/12) seriously violates Viet Nam’s sovereignty over Hoang Sa, goes against the common awareness reached by the two countries’ high-ranking leaders and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the East Sea signed between ASEAN and China in 2002, and is an illegal and valueless activity.”“Viet Nam rejects the China’s activity and requests Chinese side to immediately annul the international bid for this block.”

The Philippines

Philippine, Chinese leader to meet at APEC Summit in Russia

Philippine President Benigno Aquino III and Chinese President Hu Jintao will likely discuss a territorial row on the sidelines of a regional trade summit in Russia next month, the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs said Wednesday (August 29^th). Aquino will reaffirm in the talks his country's claims to parts of the South China Sea while seeking to ease tensions with China and boost trade, foreign affairs undersecretary Laura del Rosario said. She said the Chinese side had proposed the bilateral meeting, and Aquino would accept."It will be the number one on his priority list," she said.

Philippine Foreign Affairs chief to teach South China Sea dispute

The Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary was at Ateneo Grade School in Quezon City before more than 500 sixth-graders, discussing the ongoing dispute between the Philippines and China over territories in the South China Sea. For about an hour, Del Rosario played teacher to the amused kids, using simple language and colorful visual aids like maps and animation to explain the complex, decades-long territorial rifts that some governments fear could spark Asia's next war.

The US

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to vist Asia-Pacific countries

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton departs on Thursday (August 30^th)for the Cook Islands, Indonesia, China, Timor-Leste, Brunei, and Russia. Victoria Nuland, spokesperson of the US Department of State said: “We are continuing to urge a multilateral conversation about a code of conduct in the South China Sea that is in keeping with international law and the Law of the Sea Treaty. We continue to think that that’s the best way to address these disputes. So I think you will see it come up on many of these stops.”

US helps Philippines fortify defense in Palawan

US Ambassador to the Philippines Harry Thomas on Thursday (August 30^th) turned over to police and local government officials in Palawan province two new patrol boats and two boat-towing pick-ups to support the Philippine National Police Special Boat Unit (SBU) in the island province.The United States is also helping the Philippines build a new SBU outstation on Balabac Island, off Palawan’s southernmost tip close to Sabah in Borneo. Police and local officials in Palawan said the new equipment would not be used for border patrols in disputed parts of the Suth ChinaSea but for surveillance against transnational crimes.

Indonesia

International conference on marine security took place in Indonesia

An international conference on marine security in Southeast Asia was held in Jakarta, Indonesia on August 30^th with the participation of scholars, analysts and defense experts from many countries. Participants agreed that to ensure marine security, internationally recognised legal bases, especially the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, must be respected. The commitments made by the sides concerned, including the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the East Sea (DOC), goodwill, efforts and cooperation aimed at building and strengthening trust among countries inside and outside the region must also be honoured to ensure peace, security and stability in Southeast Asia in general and the East Sea in particular.

Regional Snapshots

Philippine, Japan Coast Guards hold anti-piracy exercise in Manila

The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and Japan Coast Guard started a three-day anti-piracy exercise in Manila Bay."The activities include lectures on piracy laws, interdiction and vessel boarding procedures," the PCG said. Also part of the anti-piracy exercise is the holding of joint diving training at Coast Guard Education and Training Command Dive Training Facility at Muella dela Industria, Farola Compound, Binondo, Manila, it added. PLH 31 Shikishima is one of Japan Coast Guard's biggest vessel measuring 150 meters in length and with 80 crew members.

The US, Southeast Asian nations hold counter-terrorism training

Navy forces from the Philippines, United States and five other Southeast Asian countries commenced counter-terrorism training on Tuesday (August 28^th)at the Malacca Strait, Sulu Sea and Subic Bay.Philippine Navy Spokesman Col. Omar Tonsay said the five-day Southeast Asia Cooperation and Training will deal with surface, air and special operations units of the participating countries. Tonsay said the United States will deploy its USS Safeguard, a rescue and salvage ship which will be serving as the Contact of Interest. The Philippine Navy will deploy 200 personnel, four ships and an airplane. Singapore will serve as the command and control center of the military exercise.

Vietnam, Australia increase defense cooperation

Vietnam’s Defense Minister General Phung Quang Thanh and his Australian counterpart Stephen Smith met with the press in Hanoi on August 29^th on the occasion of Minister Smith’s visit to Vietnam. During the talks, they reviewed defence ties and exchanged measures to strengthen and promote the relationship on the basis of the Memorandum of Understanding on Defence Cooperation signed in 2010. Both noted with pleasure the bilateral defence ties, especially in training cooperation. They agreed to enhance mutual consultation at multilateral forums and bilateral dialogues at strategic and lower levels.

Vietnam, Indonesia look toward strategic partnership

Vietnamese and Indonesian delegations have met in Bali, Indonesia, for the second meeting on the theme Towards the Vietnam-Indonesia strategic partnership. The August 28-29 conference, co-chaired by Deputy Foreign Minister Pham Quang Vinh and Head of the Indonesian Foreign Ministry’s Policy Analysis and Development Agency Pitono Purnomo, focused on the content of the two countries’ strategic partnership, including efforts to enhance bilateral cooperation and regional and global cooperation.

Asian countries to cooperate on joint sea patrol

The Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia are considering joint patrols of their sea borders to combat piracy, smuggling and the movement of al-Qaida-linked militants. The proposal was discussed when Philippine Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin met earlier this week with his Indonesian and Malaysian counterparts. The Philippines has considered joint naval patrols with either Indonesia or Malaysia in the past but a three-way effort would vastly improve security in the volatile region, Gazmin said.

Commentaries & Analyses

Collision Course in the South China Sea

China and the Southeast Asian nations with competing territorial claims seem set on a collision course. Though still low, the probability of conflict is rising inexorably. The current trajectory is lose-lose-lose for all concerned, including China, Southeast Asia and third-party countries in the Pacific Rim, such as the United States, that have a large stake in a peaceful South China Sea. At this point, the focus should not be resolving competing claims. Instead, diplomats must try to lower temperatures and get all sides to implement confidence-building measures to ensure peace and stability in the region. Only when cooler heads prevail can the concerned countries turn their attention to resolving the longer-term questions of the sovereignty and jurisdiction of the islands in the South China Sea. China's recent actions in the South China Sea are likely to severely damage its ability to influence the region and the world on other more important issues. Stepping back from the brink is in everyone's interests. But this has to be done in a way that builds mutual trust and confidence.

Asia’s Roiling Sea

These days, with the sea bounded by some of Asia’s most vibrant economies — China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan and Malaysia — the competition has become a virtual free-for-all. Confrontations over territorial control are alarmingly frequent and could get out of hand, with dangerous consequences. Both China and its neighbors bear responsibility for ratcheting up the tension. But there is no question that China’s economic power and its assertive use of its navy and commercial vessels to project influence has changed the regional dynamics and worried many of its smaller neighbors. China would prefer to deal with territorial disputes bilaterally because it thinks it can strong-arm its neighbors. Washington’s should not be the sole voice for a peaceful resolution. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which includes Vietnam, the Philippines and others, could make a real contribution by adopting a binding code of conduct for managing the South China Sea disputes. But so far it has not. That makes it all the more important for the administration to continue to invest more effort in the South China Sea dispute, both working with China and strengthening alliances with its rivals.

What should the US do in the South China Sea?

President Barack Obama’s famous “pivot” to the Pacific is now on the line. Should the United States simply stand by and let China take all of the disputed islands, it would lose credibility in the region and around the world. In the case of conflicting claims in the South China Sea, the United States should insist that China come to the negotiating table and commit to international arbitration as to who owns what. This will not be easy, and will entail a nuanced approach. Some, such as Michael Auslin of the American Enterprise Institute, have suggested that as a first step the United States should cut off military-to-military dialogue “until it gets answers” on how large China’s military garrisons on the disputed islands may be.“The US should consider postponing future annual Security and Economic Dialogues, “ he says. This would be the wrong approach. Military-to-military dialogue is the first thing that gets suspended when the United States wants to get tough with China and it’s always been a mistake. It is very helpful to have our military and China’s talking to each other, and it would be nose cutting rather than face saving to postpone security and economic dialogue. It is in everybody’s interest to keep China talking, to engage it as much as possible, not only in coming to an agreement in the South China Sea but in other potential sore points as well.

The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

The U.S., China and all of East Asia have now reached an unavoidable moment of truth. Sovereignty disputes in which parties seek peaceful resolution are one thing; flagrant, belligerent acts are quite another. How this challenge is addressed will have implications not only for the South China Sea, but also for the stability of East Asia and for the future of U.S.-China relations. History teaches us that when unilateral acts of aggression go unanswered, the bad news never gets better with age.While America's attention is distracted by the presidential campaign, all of East Asia is watching what the U.S. will do about Chinese actions in the South China Sea. They know a test when they see one. They are waiting to see whether America will live up to its uncomfortable but necessary role as the true guarantor of stability in East Asia, or whether the region will again be dominated by belligerence and intimidation. The question is whether the China of 2012 truly wishes to resolve issues through acceptable international standards, and whether the America of 2012 has the will and the capacity to insist that this approach is the only path toward stability.

The China Challenge

China seems bent on wresting that strategic dominance from the United States so it can become the region’s dominant power. China today represents the most fundamental geopolitical challenge facing the United States. Therefore, not only must next year’s president respond to this challenge, but he must also prepare the nation for it. That suggests a number of policy imperatives. Precisely how America meets this challenge remains an open question. It will take deft, imaginative, flexible and tough-minded diplomacy, mixed with resolve and a clear understanding of the stakes involved. But it also will take recognition that the United States must focus on priorities, must accept that it can’t do everything everywhere in the world, and must avoid distractions as it faces with a cold eye its most pressing tests. Among those tests, none seems more pressing these days than China.

US strategy: between the ‘pivot’ and ‘Air-Sea Battle’

Although the ‘pivot to Asia’ has become a phrase often used to describe increased US engagement, it is the name of a military-operational concept — Air-Sea Battle — that has most captured the imagination of audiences in Asia and in the US itself. ‘Containment’ or ‘Air-Sea Battle’ are the often-used proxy terms that distort the US’s present-day approach and its intentions, and do not capture the nuance in the emerging US strategy and posture. But without a common and broad understanding of the basic strategy, it will be difficult to build and sustain the regional and domestic understanding and support that is necessary for that posture and strategy to be viable over the long term. The current geostrategic window of opportunity for the US may well close before it can sufficiently explain to the region what it is trying to do and how. What is needed, in short, is a public diplomacy term that does for the US and its allies in 21st-century Asia what the term ‘containment’ did during the Cold War. Who would have thought that a US policy initiative might ever be left wanting for lack of a catchy phrase? Maybe the US strategic community should take a leaf out of China’s book and announce a US ‘strategy for harmony and order’ in Asia.

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