Weekly Bulletin (26 August - 1 September)

Activities of the Claimants

China

China Rejects Multilateral Intervention in South China Sea Disputes

China's defense minister issued a blunt rebuke to Southeast Asian counterparts on August 29^th, saying Beijing rejected any multilateral approach to resolving competing territorial claims in the South China Sea. Defense minister Gen. Chang Wanquan said disputes over the South China Sea shouldn't harm China's relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations because the 10-member regional bloc doesn't have a direct role in the disagreements. "These disputes should be resolved by the countries directly concerned," Gen. Chang said. "We oppose any attempt to internationalize or complicate the disputes."

China will not "shy away" from South China Sea row

At a meeting with ASEAN foreign ministers in the Chinese capital, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said: "We did not shy away from problems that exist.” "Currently the South China Sea situation is stable and when we look at other places in world, we should dearly cherish it." 

Taiwan to spend US$100m on work at disputed Spratlys

Taiwan plans to spend more than $100 million to build a dock big enough for warships in the Ba Binh Island, a legislator said on August 29^th. Once it is completed, large supply ships and even naval frigates will be able to berth, said Lin, a legislator from the ruling Kuomintang party who sits on parliament's defence committee. The current pier caters only to small patrol boats. Once the dock work is completed the runway on Taiping will be extended, Lin said.

Vietnam

China’s stamps violate Vietnam’s Hoang Sa island sovereignty

The Department of Posts under the Ministry of Information and Communications on August 28 officially objected to China Post’s issuance of stamps that violate Vietnam’s sovereignty over Hoang Sa (Paracel) archipelago. The act by China Post is not in conformity with Article 8 of the Universal Postal Union’s Convention, the department said. It demanded that China Post respect the truth and abolish the stamps, envelops and postcards which were printed with the images of islands of Hoang Sa archipelago.

Vietnam Strengthens Coast Guard

Vietnam is adding three patrol vessels to its coast guard to take a stronger stance in defending its territorial claims in the South China Sea. In conjunction with launching the ships, Vietnam renamed its maritime police agency to the Vietnam Coast Guard, signaling a greater role in enforcing claims of sovereignty in the waters off its 3,200-kilometer coastline. Training and funding will be increased.

The Philippines

UN tribunal gives first order on Phl's case vs China

The United Nation's Arbitral Tribunal in the Hague has given the Philippines until March 30^th, 2014 to make all the necessary submissions in its case on the territorial dispute with China. The Arbitral Tribunal has issued its first Procedural Order, which establishes the initial timetable for the arbitration and adopting Rules of Procedure. "The Arbitral Tribunal directs the Philippines to fully address all issues, including matters relating to the jurisdiction of the Arbitral Tribunal, the admissibility of the Philippines’ claim, as well as the merits of the dispute," it said in a press release dated August 27^th.

China asks Philippines' Aquino to call off visit in apparent snub

China has asked Philippine President Benigno Aquino to call off a visit for the opening of a trade fair, Manila said on August 29^th, in an apparent snub, but Beijing insisted it had never invited him in the first place. "The president has decided not to proceed to the China-ASEAN Expo taking into consideration China's request for the president to visit China at a more conducive time," Philippine Foreign Ministry spokesman Raul Hernandez said in a text message.” "On the part of the Philippines, we will continue to abide by our principled position that bilateral relations can advance despite differences." China's Foreign Ministry, in a statement given to Reuters, said Aquino had not been invited. "China never extended an invitation to the Philippine president," it said, without elaborating.

Up to 5 Chinese ships circling Scarborough, Co May Shoal

Armed Forces chief Gen Emmanuel Bautista said 2 to 5 Chinese ships are circling the Co May Shoal and Scarborough shoal at any given time and some have gone as close as 2 nautical miles or about 4 kilometers to Co May Shoal. These are combinations of Chinese Maritime Surveillance (CMS) ships, fisheries law enforcement vessels, and fishing ships. Bautista said CMS ships and China PLA navy vessels sometimes escort the fishing vessels.

Singapore

Singapore affirms stance on Southeast Asia territorial disputes

Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has expressed his hope that all concerned parties will keep calm and restrain themselves to maintain a peaceful environment without tension in Southeast Asia. The PM affirmed his country’s consistent stance on the territorial disputes between China and several ASEAN member nations during a meeting with the press on August 26^th on the occasion of his ongoing visit to China . The Singaporean leader stated that all countries in the region will be negatively impacted if tensions or clashes arise. He said he had a candid exchange with his Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang on a number of issues relating to bilateral ties.

Malaysia

Malaysia Splits With Asean Claimants on China Sea Threat

Malaysia differed with fellow Southeast Asian claimants in the South China Sea on the threat posed by China, dismissing concerns about patrols off its coast. Malaysia is not worried about how often Chinese ships patrol the areas it claims in the waters, Defence Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said in an interview in Brunei yesterday. Chinese Navy ships in March visited James Shoal off Malaysia, near where Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) and Petroliam Nasional Bhd. have oil and gas operations. “Just because you have enemies, doesn’t mean your enemies are my enemies,” Hishammuddin said on the sidelines of meetings with counterparts from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as well as the U.S. The Chinese “can patrol every day, but if their intention is not to go to war” it is of less concern, he said. “I think we have enough level of trust that we will not be moved by day-to-day politics or emotions.”

India

India opposed to use of force in the South China Sea

Against the backdrop of growing Chinese assertion in South China Sea, India on August 29^th said it was opposed to the use of threat and force to resolve the disputes and urged the countries concerned to resolve the issues peacefully in accordance with international conventions. "We oppose the use or the threat of use of force. We hope that all parties to disputes in the South China Sea region will abide by 2002 Declaration on Conduct there and work together to ensure peaceful resolution of disputes, in accordance with international laws. "We urge all parties concerned to take forward these discussions towards adoption of a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea on the basis of consensus," he said.

The U.S.

US firm to build Phl $18-M coast watch system

An American firm has bagged a contract to build a coast watch center aimed at boosting the Philippines’ maritime border security. Massachusetts-based company Raytheon said it had been awarded a contract to design and construct a National Coast Watch Center by the Philippine government last July. The project costs $18 million or about P795 million. It covers support integration of data from various agencies in the coast watch center, installation, training and radio communications. The construction of the National Coast Watch Center is Raytheon’s first border security-related contract in Southeast Asia. The contract will end on July 31th, 2015.

Hagel issues warning over Asian maritime disputes

Pentagon chief Chuck Hagel warned fellow defence ministers on August 29^th that a growing number of maritime incidents and tensions in disputed Asian waters increase the risk of a dangerous international confrontation. "Actions at sea to advance territorial claims do not strengthen any party's legal claim. Instead, they increase the risk of confrontation, undermine regional stability, and dim the prospects for diplomacy," Hagel said, according to a prepared text of his remarks.

US wants extended access to Philippine bases

The United States wants to use Philippine bases for extended periods of up to 20 years, a Manila official said on July 31^st as the two sides are in talks on a wider US military footprint in Asia. The negotiations aim to allow more US troops, ships, aircraft and other equipment to pass through the Philippines, which had hosted tens of thousands of US troops until 1992. "For the Americans, they typically have agreements like these that have a duration of 20 years. Right now, the Philippine delegation is looking at a much shorter duration," negotiator Carlos Sorreta, a Philippine assistant foreign secretary, said in statement. He gave no specific time frame for the Philippine counter-proposal, with the statement adding the "substantive issue of duration" would be "subject to further discussion".

US affirms to continue re-balancing ties with Asia-Pacific

US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel said on August 26^th that his country will continue the re-balancing of its relationship in Asia-Pacific region. The Defence Secretary told the press after meeting with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in Jakarta that the region is important for the future of the US as Washington has built friendship and partnership for years. "We have relationships, we have alliances, we have interests all over the globe. But this area is particularly important to the future of the US ," he said.

Regional Snapshots

Philippines, Vietnam hold talks to boost defense amid China tension

Vietnamese Defense Minister General Phung Quang Thanh met his Philippine counterpart Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin at Camp Aguinaldo on Monday amid China’s aggressiveness on its excessive claims over the disputed South China Sea. “Both officials assessed joint activities of the two defense and military establishments and explored other cooperative initiatives to include humanitarian assistance and disaster relief cooperation given both countries’ experience on natural disasters,” the Department of National Defense issued in a statement. They also exchanged views on recent security issues on mutual concern particularly on the situation in the South China Sea and the US’ policy of re-balancing in the Asia-Pacific.

Defence Minister attends ADMM Retreat

On August 28^th, ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) Retreat took place in Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei. Discussions at the Retreat focused on regional and global defence and security, especially the importance of defence cooperation towards building an ASEAN Political-Security Community by 2015. The ministers reaffirmed their promise to cope with defence and security challenges via ADMM and ADMM Plus (ADMM+) mechanisms which, according to them, should be strengthened. On the fringes of the event there was an informal ASEAN-US meeting where US Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel said his country wants to work with ASEAN member nations in all fields and backs the regional cooperation mechanism in which the bloc plays a central role. The US wants the East Sea disputes to be settled peacefully and it will make continued contributions to regional peace and stability, Hagel said.

ADMM+ reaffirms need for closer defence cooperation

The second ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) Plus concluded on August 29^th in Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei with the signing of a joint statement reaffirming the need for closer cooperation among member countries. In the statement, defence ministers from ASEAN member states and dialogue partners underscored the necessity to guide their relationships by fundamental principles mentioned in the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, especially the renunciation of the threat or use of force, and restraint. The ministers also reiterated their commitment to reinforcing their defence ties in promoting peace and stability in Asia-Pacific based on the principles of equality, mutual respect and benefit, and compliance with international law.

East Sea issue need to be resolved peacefully

Speaking at the ASEAN+, Vietnamese Defence Minister said that the countries should settle East Sea disputes through peaceful measures and dialogues, based on international laws, especially the United Nations Law of the Sea 1982 and the declaration on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of Sino – ASEAN relations, soon establishing the COC and ensuring maritime security and safety. He stressed that countries should promote their cooperation within the ADMM Plus framework, with ASEAN’s centrality, like in the ADMM Plus HADR/MM in June in Brunei.

ASEAN, China celebrate decade-long ties

A Special Foreign Ministers’ Meeting took place in Beijing on August 29 to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the strategic partnership between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China. During the meeting, the ministers shared their positive views on the comprehensive development and important achievements in bilateral cooperation during the past decade in all fields, including politics, economics, trade, investment, culture and people-to-people exchange. The meeting also gave much space to underline the significance of maintaining peace, stability and maritime security, safety and freedom, as well as the peaceful settlement of disputes in the East Sea based on the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982 UNCLOS), the full and effective implementation of the Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the East Sea (COC) and the soon formation of a Code of Conduct (COC) in the East Sea.

Aquino, Hagel discuss expanding US military presence in Philippines

Philippine President Benigno Aquino and Pentagon chief Chuck Hagel discussed expanding the US military's presence in the Philippines on August 30^th as the Asian ally looks to defend its territorial claims in disputed waters. Hagel said he and Aquino "reaffirmed the progress being made" in talks begun earlier this month to allow a bigger US military footprint in the Philippines, which had hosted large US military bases until 1992. "This progress is welcome and encouraging. I noted that our negotiating teams are working hard to finish the framework agreement in the near future," he told reporters. The discussions, which resumed in Washington on August 29^th, would allow more US troops, aircraft and ships to temporarily pass through the Philippines at a time when Washington is refocusing its attention in Asia after wars in the Middle East.

Commentaries & Analyses

China Moves to Isolate Philippines, Japan

By  Zachary Keck

In recent weeks both the Philippines and Japan have made a number of overtures to China aimed at mending strained bilateral ties. However, China has now roundly rejected the overtures from both nations. On Thursday last week the Philippines’ Foreign Ministry announced that Aquino was cancelling his visit to China next week at the request of the Chinese government. Beijing, for its part, denied having invited Aquino in the first place. China has also repeatedly rejected Japan’s calls for a leader or foreign minister summit. Most recently, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Li Baodong said that there would most likely not be a summit with Japan and the sidelines of the G20 summit in St. Petersburg this week. Beijing’s rejection of the Filipino and Japanese overtures does not signal that China is abandoning or moving away from regional diplomacy. To the contrary, China has been mounting something of its own charm offensive throughout the Indo-Pacific. Last month, for instance, Foreign Minister Wang Yi spent six days in Southeast Asia.. Thus, China has only been reluctant to engage Japan and the Philippines diplomatically This is almost certainly aimed at isolating Beijing’s disputes with Japan and the Philippines from its relations with other regional powers. In other words, China hopes to reduce regional concern over its rising power and greater assertiveness by portraying its spats with Japan and the Philippines as rare exceptions to the general rule of China maintaining positive relationships in the region. The aim of this policy is to shift the blame for the disputes onto Tokyo and Manila, reduce the amount of balancing China faces, and complicate Japanese and Filipino efforts to make common cause with other regional states.

Managing the Disputes in the South China Sea: Can ASEAN Take the Bull by the Horns?

By Aileen S.P. Baviera

Following the ASEAN Summit, China’s newly appointed Foreign Minister Wang Yi went on a regional tour of Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Brunei, where he delivered a message that many in the ASEAN wanted to hear: talks on the regional code of conduct would proceed and China would actively participate in it. ASEAN has accepted the proposal and announced the formation of an Eminent Persons and Experts Group. But there are also signals  from both China and the ASEAN countries  that any optimism as to the future of ASEAN-China relations, particularly in relation to a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, must be balanced with a dose of realism. One signal is that some Chinese voices still emphasize that the main task ahead is implementation of the 2002 Declaration of Conduct (DOC) rather than the crafting of a more binding Code of Conduct (COC). The DOC, a political declaration rather than a treaty, was the outcome of three years of negotiations between China and ASEAN that were originally intended to lead to the adoption of a legally binding code of conduct. Another concern is that China may use the prospect of an early conclusion of a COC to either persuade the Philippines to withdraw the case for ITLOS arbitration that it had filed against China in January. Or to try to isolate the Philippines from the rest of the ASEAN for choosing a unilateralist, legal way out even when the prospect of a more consultative and pragmatic political solution, that is preferred by the rest, looms.  Yet another concern—and one which all parties to the Code must weigh carefully— is that a binding agreement,  especially one that focuses on conflict prevention and the avoidance of armed confrontations at sea, is bound to create constraints on the presence and activities of their defense and law enforcement authorities. It requires a leap of faith to believe that all parties will equally abide by commitments made. Finally, how will a code of conduct that applies to the parties to the dispute or even to ASEAN and China together, be received by other user-States and extra-regional powers who operate in the South China Sea? These issues are being flagged, not to dampen enthusiasm for the long awaited COC, but to provide early warning of possible pitfalls in order to anticipate and avoid them. This code of conduct was needed yesterday, and could have prevented much adversity and alacrity among neighbors. But now is a good time to start.

Japan aid to the Philippines a warning to China

By Yoichiro Sato

On 27^th July, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe offered to provide the Philippines with 10 coast guard patrol ships through a yen loan as part of a naval agreement. The increasing bullishness of Chinese maritime forces in the East and South China Seas is one of the reasons for Japan to give assistance to the Philippines. While the addition of 10 patrol boats to the Philippines Coast Guard will not significantly shift the maritime power balance away from China, Japan’s aid is a clear message that it is watching China’s actions very carefully. Second, in the eyes of the current conservative Japanese political leaders, President Obama’s commitment to ‘rebalancing’ must be backed up by tangible force deployments. In this sense, Abe’s aid decision was also an attempt to spur greater US commitment to regional security. Finally, Japanese aid to the Philippines is a signal to ASEAN that it backs ASEAN solidarity on the South China Sea. It is crucial for both ASEAN and Japan to prove their diplomatic relevance in the face of an increasingly bullish China. Japan’s effort may not be able to create a solid containment network against China as such, but it should support a united ASEAN free of Chinese interference. Japan’s aid to the Philippines demonstrates its willingness to help ASEAN remain unified. Given these factors, Abe’s decision to boost aid to the Philippines has three implicit aims: to deter China; awaken the United States; and assure ASEAN, which should be feeling a boost in confidence thanks to Japan’s willingness to play an active security diplomacy role in the region.

Seeking Peace in the South China Sea – What the U.S. can do?

By Khanh Vu Duc

Given that war is undesirable for all parties involved, including China, the question then is what can be done to prevent such outcome. What preventative measures can the United States hope for in resolving the disputes? At the heart of the South China Sea dispute is the question of sovereignty over the sea and the islands within it. Due to the sensitivity over the question of sovereignty, the South China Sea disputes can't be resolved without first addressing this salient point. On the other hand, focusing too hard on it, as is the current case, could accelerate the path to conflict. Therefore, as an interim measure, the question of sovereignty should be set aside in acceptance of a modus vivendi, or agreement to disagree, particularly with regards to the Spratly Islands dispute given its multinational dimension. The nature of this particularly dispute will require all claimant states to work together towards finding an acceptable solution. Joint development of resources might not be accepted by all those states involved. However, it would be a solid step forward to reducing tension in the region. The US can't tell China what to do, but it can convince its partners involved in the disputes to consider an internationally-supervised joint development program. International law cannot be trusted to secure peace, even if in the short-term; whereas a multilateral solution in the form of a joint development and exploration of resources, although difficult to implement, is a probable and potentially workable solution. For those concerned states unwilling to participate, the US should make clear to them that this is not a permanent solution but a stopgap measure to prevent, or at least reduce, the possibility of hostile confrontation.  Although a modus vivendi would table the question of sovereignty, the question remains an obstacle to long-lasting peace in Asia-Pacific. Eventually, if not this generation then the next, China and the claimant states must reach a settlement on the sovereignty of those disputed territories in the South China Sea. Such an agreement to disagree, however, would at least give peace a chance and buy time to find a more permanent solution.