Weekly Bulletin (24 September - 30 September)

Activities of the Claimants

China

First Chinese made jack-up drilling rig put into service

On September 24^th, the first China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) made jack-up drilling rig CP-300 was brought into use at the Bohai Bay’s new Panjin Port, Liaoning Province. All the indexes of CP-300 are industrial leading both at home and abroad, with maximum operating water depth of 300 feet (91.44 meters), nominal drilling depth of 30,000ft (9,000 meters), once in place 30 wells drillable, and accommodation of 105.

China's first aircraft carrier commissioned

China's first aircraft carrier was delivered and commissioned to the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy on Tuesday (September 25^rd) after years of refitting and sea trials. Overseen by President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, the carrier was officially handed over by the navy's main contractor, the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, at a ceremony held at a naval base in northeast China's port city of Dalian. The carrier, rebuilt from the Soviet ship Varyag, was renamed "Liaoning" and underwent years of refitting efforts to install engines, weapons, as well as a year-long sea trial.

China to reject Philippine warning

A Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman said on Thursday (September 27^th) that the country's use of drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles over Scarborough Shoal (China calls it Huangyan Islands), Spratly Island and their adjacent waters is "justified and legal," and warned that China opposes any military provocation in the South China Sea. Yang Yujun made the remarks at a monthly press briefing in response to comments by a Philippine Department of National Defense  spokesman that Chinese drones may be shot at if they enter the above-mentioned airspace.

China speeds up construction of newly founded city of “Sansha”

The infrastructure projects include road construction, water supply and drainage on Phu Lam Island. According to the plan, seven roads with a total length of five kilometers will be repaired or built to improve the island's traffic situation. Meanwhile, a desalinator capable of processing 1,000 cubic meters of seawater a day will be built on the island to ensure fresh water supplies.

The Philippines

Philippines will respond to China ships

Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario on Wednesday (September 26^th) said the Philippine government may have to respond to the continued  stay of Chinese ships in the waters of the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. "There was an agreement between the two countries that ships will be pulled out from the shoal. The Philippines pulled out their ship but the Chinese did not comply with the agreement," he said.

China free to fly drones only over its own, international airspace

The Philippine Department of National Defense (DND) said Tuesday (September 25^th) that it sees no problem with China’s plan to fly drones to monitor disputed areas that the Chinese are claiming provided they fly within their country’s or over international airspace. However, DND spokesman Peter Paul Galvez said in a phone interview, “If they enter your airspace without your permission, there could be a miscalculation. For example, you might be shot at accidentally. It may aggravate [the situation], instead of being able to contribute to the peaceful resolution of the current dispute.”

The U.S.

US urges China and ASEAN to promote dialogues on sea dispute encouraging

The United States has described as encouraging moves by China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to restart an informal dialogue on the contentious South China Sea issue. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met separately on Thursday (September 27^th) in New York with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and the foreign ministers of all ASEAN-member countries. A senior State Department official said initial talks began in Cambodia two weeks ago and “we expect these meetings are going to continue in the lead-up to the East Asia Summit in November.” He said ASEAN and Chinese foreign ministers described the initial contact as important and positive. In an address before the ASEAN foreign ministers, Clinton said the US was encouraged by the “informal dialogue between ASEAN and China as they work toward a comprehensive code of conduct for the South China Sea as a means to prevent future tension in the region.”

Indonesia

Indonesia circulates draft code of conduct on South China Sea

Indonesia has circulated a draft of code of conduct on the South China Sea to ASEAN foreign ministers that comprises elements of conflict prevention and conflict management for the maritime territorial dispute. “We’re creating a momentum for progress regarding the South China Sea issue. This is the first time that the ASEAN ministers have received the draft of code of conduct,” Indonesia Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said after the ASEAN Informal Meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in the US on Thursday (September 27^th).

Regional Snapshots

Vietnam, New Zealand strengthen defense cooperation

Vietnam and New Zealand have agreed to strengthen cooperation in the near future, including naval affairs, search and rescue, fire prevention and human resources training. The agreement was reached by Deputy Chief of the General Staff of Vietnam People’s Army, Lieut. Gen. Vo Van Tuan and Paul Sinclair, Head of the International Cooperation Department under the Ministry of Defense of New Zealand , at their meeting in Hanoi on September 25^th.

Japan, Australia agree to boost defense ties

Defense ministers of Japan and Australia agreed on Tuesday (September 25^th) to deepen bilateral defense ties and strengthen cooperation in joint operations, said local media.

"We would like to make the Japan-Australian ties more substantive and bridge it with the trilateral cooperation between Japan, the United States and Australia," Japanese Defense Minister Satoshi Morimoto said in a meeting at the ministry with his Australian counterpart Stephen Smith. Smith said he hopes bilateral defense ties between the two countries will go further.

New Delhi hosts Vietnam-India strategic defense dialogue

The seventh Vietnam-India Strategic Defence Dialogue took place in India’s capital city of New Delhi on September 26^th. Vietnamese Deputy Defense Minister Lieut. Gen. Nguyen Chi Vinh and Indian Defense Secretary Shashi Kant Sharma co-chaired the event. At the dialogue, the two sides exchanged views on the current situation of global and regional security, the regional security structures as well as the bilateral defense ties.

Vietnam, China discuss sea area off Tonkin Gulf

Experts from Vietnam and China discussed the sea area off the Tonkin Gulf during the second expert-level negotiation round in Beijing from September 26-27. The two sides agreed that the guiding principles for the demarcation of the area are based on international law, especially the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and related international reality. They also reached an agreement to organise the third round of the negotiations in the first half of 2013 in Vietnam.

ASEAN foreign ministers discusses the South China Sea issue on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session

On the eve of the UN General Assembly session, the Informal ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (IAMM) and related meetings took place. Regarding the East Sea issue, Vietnamese Deputy Minister Pham Quang Vinh stressed that countries should strictly obey and implement fundamental principles on the settlement of disputes through peaceful measures, respecting international law and the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and the full implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the East Sea (DOC). ASE AN should exert effort to ensure the effective implementation of the six-principle statement on the East Sea and the early conclusion of the COC.

Commentaries & Analyses

The Coming Asian Rebalancing

The concept of balancing is a bedrock of international-relations theory. A conceptually studied-to-death phenomenon, it predicts that states will band together with one another when possible to prevent any single state from becoming too dominant within the system or neighborhood of states. Yet across the centuries, that common purpose has always been the same: maintain a relative balance of power and prevent any single state from dominating. Today it’s not the Senkaku but the Spratly, Paracel and Macclesfield Bank islands in the South China Sea that make the Middle Kingdom look increasingly threatening to its Asian neighbors and beyond. Thus, it is hardly surprising to see the beginnings of an Asian coalition against China emerging. It should surprise no one that China seeks to negotiate the dispute bilaterally between the relevant actors, while the less powerful states—Malaysia, Taiwan, the Philippines, Brunei and Vietnam—seek a more collective approach with the United States. These nations are by no means natural allies. However, each one understands that its individual position is best served by working together to check Chinese ambition. It is the essence of balancing. The United States, lurking in the background, provides the ace in the hole. In most cases, they have overlapping claims with one another.

China Launches Carrier, but Experts Doubt Its Worth

The mark “16” on the carrier’s side indicates that it is limited to training, Chinese and other military experts said. China does not have planes capable of landing on the carrier and so far training for such landings has been carried out on land, they said. For international purposes, the public unveiling of the carrier seemed intended to signal to smaller nations in the South China Sea, including the Philippines, an American ally, that China has an increasing number of impressive assets to deploy. American military planners have played down the significance of the commissioning of the carrier. Some Navy officials have even said they would encourage China to move ahead with building its own aircraft carrier and the ships to accompany it, because it would be a waste of money. Other military experts outside China have agreed with that assessment. “The fact is the aircraft carrier is useless for the Chinese Navy,” You Ji, a visiting senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore, said in an interview. “If it is used against America, it has no survivability. If it is used against China’s neighbors, it’s a sign of bullying.”

India: Linchpin Of Asia Pivot?

The January 2012 Pentagon document on Strategic Guidance, entitled “Sustaining Global Leadership: Priorities for Twenty First Century,” gives a prominent place for India in the U.S. strategy, which came as a surprise to many observers. The United States has been exhorting India to move from its “Look East” policy to an “Act East” policy. Although Obama administration officials have often stated that the so-called “pivot” is not aimed at any particular country, the Strategic Guidance document admits that it concerns at least in part the growing influence of China. Happy to avail itself of U.S. military technology but reluctant to raise tensions with its sometime rival, India is understandably cautious about aligning too closely with the United States against China. That is why, in response to Panetta’s overtures, Indian Defense Minister A. K. Antony emphasized “the need to strengthen multilateral security architecture in Asia and move to a pace comfortable to all countries concerned.” Although India may not want to be described as the “linchpin” of the U.S. pivot, the present leadership will nonetheless reassure Washington that it broadly supports U.S. policies abroad, including in the Asia-Pacific.

Can Taiwan Bring Peace to the South and East China Seas?

As tensions have mounted in the East and South China Seas, Taiwan expressed its position in some unhelpful ways, including live-fire drills on the largest of the disputed Spratly Islands. Like every other actor, Taiwan seeks to mix persuasion and coercion to advance its interests. Vague 9-dashed line claim, coupled with recent live-fire exercises in the South China Sea, is not encouraging members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to argue for Taiwan’s participation in multilateral talks.  As a big, small power with a tenuous political position because of China, Taiwan doesn’t advance its own interests by alienating ASEAN states.  More to the point, Taiwan is at risk of missing an opportunity to be part of the regional security dialogue. As with the Philippines, the major potential threat to Taiwan’s sovereignty emanates from a rising China.  Taiwan needs an effective strategy for countering Chinese pressure.   Clearly Taiwan needs stealthy, capable platforms and a better anti-access strategy.  But advanced weapons systems alone cannot provide greater security, and what Taiwan most needs is greater economic and political support.  Trade agreements that prevent Taiwan from excessive dependence on the Mainland and express its trans-Pacific interests, and political integration are areas that need as much attention as military affairs. Taiwan can take the lead in establishing some badly needed constructive dialogue and confidence-building measures.  

US 'pivots' on the Philippines

The Philippines is arguably at the center of the US's declared "pivot" policy towards Asia. Already zeroed in on Asia's booming markets as an antidote to its flailing domestic economy, and seemingly aware of its strategic over-extension in the Middle East, the US has returned to the region in force to counterbalance China's rising power and influence. Many in the Philippines are thus wary of the centrality of US-China relations. Locked in virtual economic co-dependence, Washington likely sees its ties with Beijing as the most consequential bilateral relationship of the next few decades. Many in Manila fear America could for the sake of systemic stability give policy priority to the preservation of great power harmony over defending marginal treaty allies like the Philippines. Moreover, it is not clear whether the US will be able to disengage quickly from the Middle East and South Asia and place strategic priority on its Asia-Pacific "pivot". With Iran threatening to close the strategically important Strait of Hormuz if it comes under attack from Israel, America has recently rapidly bolstered its naval presence in the Persian Gulf. "I doubt that US will be able to fully and smoothly pivot to Asia because it is heavily pinned-down in the Middle East, especially in light of growing tensions over Iran's nuclear program and Israel's constant blackmailing," says Filipino legislator Bello. "Russia and China also have an interest in keeping US pinned down elsewhere, away from Asia." 

Chinese strategic miscalculations in the South China Sea

For China, the South China Sea dispute represents the kind of challenge that could determine whether or how China will indeed ascend to superpower status. Regrettably, China does not yet recognize the extent to which its aggressive course in the South China Sea is damaging its diplomacy with neighboring countries. First, sovereignty disputes with some ASEAN neighbors have severely weakened China's standing in the region and beyond. Second, China’s aggressiveness has resulted in the United States reprioritizing its global strategy with its “pivot” or “rebalance” toward the Asia-Pacific region. Third, troubles with close neighbors also affect the image and position of China in the world. Fourth, China’s dramatic assertion of unilateral sovereignty over the South China Sea has adversely affected the peaceful environment China desperately needs to become a global power. First and foremost, China should take constructive steps to bring about an amicable conclusion to negotiations on the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea, and implement a face-saving policy renouncing once and for all its U-shaped line. Obviously, this will be a difficult decision for China to take. However, the international dividend and return for China’s peaceful rise would ripple far beyond the neighborhood and confines of the South China Sea.