Weekly Bulletin (2 September - 8 September)

Activities of the Claimants

China

Li Keqiang offers Asean cautious backing for South China Sea accord

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told Asean leaders on September 3^rd China was serious about wanting a peaceful resolution to disputes over the South China Sea, though he signalled Beijing was in no rush to sign a long-mooted accord on maritime conduct. "South China Sea disputes should not, and will not, affect the overall China-Asean co-operation," Li said at the opening of China-Asean Expo in Nanning in Guangxi. Li said China had always advocated talks on the South China Sea on the basis of "respecting historical reality and international law". He repeated that talks on the dispute should only be carried out between the parties directly concerned - Beijing's standard line, which rejects the involvement of outside parties such as the United States or multilateral forums.

Building allegations rejected by China

Philippine Defense Department spokesman Peter Galvez said on September 3^rd that China laid 30 blocks on the Scarborough Shoal. Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin told parliament members that the concrete blocks were a "prelude to construction", AFP reported. Manila's claim is "not in accordance with the facts", Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said on September 4^th. "Given the current situation, Chinese government vessels continue regular patrols in the waters off Huangyan Island (Scarborough Shoal) to safeguard the sovereignty and order of the waters. "It is unquestionable that this is China's lawful right and in China's interest," Hong said.

The Philippines

Defense chief Gazmin: US troops not aimed at China

As talks on the increased rotational presence of the US troops in the Philippines went in full swing, Philippine Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin said China should not be worried by the impending boost of American presence here. “They shouldn’t be agitated because we have a treaty with the Americans, and that includes helping us to be capable of protecting our territories and addressing disaster operations,” Gazmin told reporters at Camp Aguinaldo. He also emphasized that the presence of the Americans is not directed towards China or any other country.

Concrete blocks by China seen in Scarborough Shoal

Concrete blocks, believed to have been laid out by the Chinese, were spotted in the disputed Scarborough Shoal which appears to be “a prelude to construction,” Philippine Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin was quoted as saying in a radio report on September 3^rd. The defense chief made the disclosure in a budget hearing at the House of Representatives where he said: “Concrete blocks were sighted which is a prelude to construction.” He added that three coast guard ships were also seen last August 31^st.

Navy aerial survey shows 75 concrete blocks dotting Scarborough Shoal

At least 75 concrete blocks have been laid out apparently by the Chinese in the disputed Scarborough Shoal, the latest aerial survey of the Philippine Navy showed. “We have seen there 75 concrete blocks scattered in a two-hectare area in the northern portion…each block would be approximately two feet by two feet,” Philippine Defense spokesman Peter Paul Galvez told reporters on September 4^th. “These may serve as foundations, platforms, a prelude to construction,” he said.

Philippines to protest planned Chinese construction at Scarborough Shoal

Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario on September 4^th said the Philippine government will file a diplomatic protest against China following Manila’s discovery of concrete blocks in Scarborough Shoal. Speaking to Reuters on September 4^th, Del Rosario said “We think that China is trying to stay ahead of the CoC. We think that they have an assertion agenda that they are trying to complete before they are able to sit down and negotiate a CoC." "This kind of activity places the region in jeopardy in terms of peace and stability," del Rosario said. "If the Philippines is the target of China today, another country could be the target tomorrow. So this should be considered as a regional issue."

Philippines recalls envoy to China

The Philippines has recalled its ambassador to China for consultations, the foreign department said on Thursday amid fresh tensions in a seething maritime territorial row. Ambassador Erlinda Basilio flew back to Manila as the defence department this week accused China of laying 75 concrete blocks on disputed territory in the South China Sea, foreign department spokesman Raul Hernandez said. "She was asked to come home for consultations, and she will (be in Manila) for the next few days," Hernandez told reporters.

Regional Snapshots

USS Freedom VBSS Team Trains with Malaysian Navy during SEACAT

Sailors assigned to USS Freedom's (LCS 1) visit, board, search and seizure (VBSS) team conducted a boarding exercise with the Royal Malaysian Navy September 4^th as part of Southeast Asia Cooperation and Training (SEACAT) 2013. SEACAT highlights the value of information sharing and multilateral cooperation in scenarios that give participating navies hands-on practice in maritime security operations. The two-week exercise began September 2^nd at Singapore's Changi Naval Base.

Philippines, Japan hold ‘frank discussions’ on sea disputes

The Philippines and Japan on Thursday had “very frank discussions” on the territorial disputes in regional seas without specifically mentioning China, which has been aggressively asserting its claim to islands that are within both countries’ territories. In a statement, the defense department said Yamamoto’s visit was “aimed to further reiterate Japan’s position and views under the administration of Prime Minister Abe on regional security issues, especially [in] the East China Sea.” Gazmin and Yamamoto “acknowledged [that] the common concerns of the Philippines and Japan are issues related to maritime security,” the statement said.

Xi, Obama discuss Asia-Pacific

Beijing asked Washington to maintain an objective and fair attitude and press countries to make tangible moves to safeguard peace in the Asia-Pacific. The region has an important opportunity for development, but it also faces "issues including maritime interests, as well as island disputes", Chinese President Xi Jinping told his US counterpart Barack Obama in a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, on September 6^th. Observers said Xi made the remarks to tell the US not to play a negative role in the issues regarding the South China Sea issue and Diaoyu Islands, and to make sure that Washington's rebalancing policy in the Asia-Pacific does not hurt China's core interests. "The Asia-Pacific is a region that best displays shared interests of China and the United States, and the scope for bilateral cooperation is larger than the differences," Xi said. The US expects all parties to resolve disputes through diplomatic reconciliation, and it is willing to contribute to this, Obama said.

Vietnam, Singapore cooperate in submarine rescue

Vietnam and Singapore navies have signed an agreement on submarine rescue procedures cooperation, underscoring the fine defence relations between the two sides. The document was inked during an official visit to Singapore of Commander of the Vietnamese People’s Navy Admiral Nguyen Van Hien, who is also Deputy Defence Minister, which started on September 6^th . During the three-day visit, the Admiral met with Rear-Admiral Ng Chee Peng, the Singaporean Chief of Navy and also signed a Memorandum of Understanding confirming information exchanges about non-military shipping and maritime activities between the two navies. The two countries’ armed forces regularly interact through high-level visits and professional training.

Commentaries & Analyses

China in the regional order: it’s not about parity

By Robert A. Manning and James J. Przystup

To answer the question, ‘what is America’s ultimate aim in Asia today?’, there is no mystery about American aims in Asia: it is simply a rules-based order with unimpeded access to the global commons. To the degree that other stakeholders are willing and able to help enforce such a system, they are welcome as partners. The question we posed remains unanswered. Parity does not tell us what regional order China would like to preside over.  It is not parity when China pronounces that the entire South China Sea lies under its sovereignty, as sketched in its mysterious nine-dash line. It is not parity when China announces it has created a capital on one of the Spratly Islands from which it will administer the South China Sea territories. It is not parity when China claims the Diaoyu/Senkakus because it has determined that the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki is an ‘unequal treaty’. (What treaty signed by the loser of a war has not been unequal?) To be sure, China seeks a larger voice in shaping rules. And this is happening, though one could argue about the pace and scope. But in areas where new rules are urgently needed to be written for governance, such as cyberspace and outer space, it is less a question of ‘sharing power’ than pooling resources. But to do so a nation must see itself as a steward of the global and regional order, one that those in the Indo-Pacific see as mutually beneficial and preferable to any alternative being offered. So far, in Asia, China behaves more like a bully with a chip on its shoulder.

Salami slicing ASEAN solidarity

By  William Choong

No one can dispute the fact that the South China Sea has been a sea of contention in recent years. And now Malaysia has added confusion to the already torturous mix. Speaking to Bloomberg News in Brunei last month, Malaysian Defence Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said that the Chinese navy could conduct patrols off Malaysia’s coasts as long as China’s ‘intention is not to go to war’. He added that Malaysia and China had built ‘enough level of trust that we will not be moved by day-to-day politics or emotions’. On the sidelines of meetings with counterparts from ASEAN as well as the US, he said that ‘Just because you have enemies, doesn’t mean your enemies are my enemies. His comments must have raised many eyebrows across Southeast Asia, and a frisson of excitement in Beijing. If Hishammuddin’s comments are to be construed as the collective position of the highest echelons of the Malaysian government, it would represent quite a turnaround in Kuala Lumpur’s approach to the South China Sea. In March 2009, then premier Abdullah Badawi paid a visit to the Malaysian-occupied Swallow Reef in the Spratly Islands to support Malaysia’s territorial claims. In May that year, Malaysia and Vietnam submitted a joint claim to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea—a move which resulted in a Chinese protest and Beijing’s first official submission of its now-infamous nine-dashed line claim to the South China Sea. From another standpoint, Mr Hishammudin’s comments can be understood more fully if one considers the broader context of relations between China and Malaysia. China is now Malaysia’s largest trading partner. Compared to other disputants, Malaysia has a relatively small claim to the South China Sea. Compared to the Philippines, which claims 53 features in the South China Sea, Malaysia claims only 12. China’s strategy towards the South China Sea dispute is clear: divide and conquer members of ASEAN, and slice the salami until the group is left with very little. And China can afford to wait, based on the Deng Xiaoping dictum of ‘hiding one’s capacities and biding one’s time’ (taoguang yanghui). The sad truth is that ASEAN can’t.

South China Sea: Chinese Stealth 'Block by Block'

By Carlyle A. Thayer

The August 31^st aerial photos of concrete blocks at Scarborough Shoal is a new development. It illustrates China’s assertion of sovereignty by stealth. It is of course a major violation of the spirit and letter of the 2002 Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). China’s construction activities come on the eve of the 6th China-ASEAN Senior Officials Meeting and the 9th Joint Working Group Meeting on Implementation of the DOC in Suzhou, Jiangsu province, scheduled for 14-15 September. Perhaps China has timed its construction activities in tandem with these meetings. If the Philippines protests too loudly, China can call off talks saying Manila is violating the spirit of the DOC. Or the Philippines may be intimidated from raising its protest too loudly for fear of offending fellow ASEAN members who have invested in the forthcoming round of meetings. China is playing wedge politics. No matter how this plays out China gains because bit by bit it is exerting control over Scarborough Shoal. The only plan on the horizon is the August 22nd Joint Vision Statement issued by the Philippines and the United States. The Joint Statement includes a provision for creating a joint force posture “that assures freedom of navigation and provides for common defense of each nation’s sovereign territory.” Unfortunately for Manila China’s actions were taken before the joint force posture was created. In any event, it is unlikely that the U.S. would countenance the use of force against Chinese facilities. Three Chinese paramilitary ships remain on station at Scarborough Shoal denying Filipino fishermen and Philippines Navy access to the area.

Could a maritime conflict start a Sino-American war?

By Mark Valencia

There is now little doubt that China and the U.S. are going to clash. The as yet unanswered questions are will the conflicts become “physical,” and if so how and why? China, according to Gompert - until recently the second-highest-ranking U.S. intelligence official in the Obama administration, is particularly worried about a long war in which the technically superior U.S. forces would prevail. So their military is developing plans and tactics for early and swift strikes to take out U.S. carriers, air bases, and command and control networks, including satellites. Meanwhile, the U.S. military has come up with its “air-sea battle” plan “designed to cripple such forces — missile launchers, air and submarine bases, and command and control centers before they can be unleashed.” Gompert argues that as a result “crisis instability” involving the two is increasing rapidly. Crisis instability occurs when “the price of failing to attack before the opponent does mean defeat. Each side knows the other is thinking the same way and so has all the more incentive to act preemptively if war seems imminent. Or probable. Or maybe just possible. Given the penalty for attacking second, such spiraling logic can turn confrontation into conflagration.”  This is where maritime issues come in. The critical questions are “if in a crisis, China’s military leaders advised its political leaders that U.S. forces were preparing for war and China’s only chance to avoid defeat was to strike first — would “Beijing” say “no”? And if senior U.S. military leaders advised the president that China was preparing for a pre-emptive strike would he or she risk the loss of key assets by waiting? Needed now is an agreement on a set of voluntary guidelines for military and intelligence-gathering activities in foreign EEZs and on definitions of permitted and prohibited conduct there. Such guidelines will provide indicators of friendly (and unfriendly) behavior and help parties avoid unnecessary incidents without banning any activities outright. Specific guidelines have been proposed by a group of international experts sponsored by Japan’s Ocean Policy Research Foundation. The most relevant of these voluntary guidelines would be the increasingly meaningful obligation to only use the ocean for peaceful purposes, and to refrain from the threat or use of force, as well as provocative acts such as collecting information to support the use of force against the coastal state, or interfering with naval electronic systems.