Weekly Bulletin (19 August - 24 August)

Activities of the Claimants

China

China will defend its maritime rights

Military relations between China and the United States are steadily improving but Beijing remains determined to defend its maritime rights, the country’s defense minister said on August 19^th during a US visit. Although General Chang Wanquan and his US counterpart, Pentagon chief Chuck Hagel, struck an optimistic tone after more than three hours of talks, the Chinese official made clear Beijing would not make concessions when it comes to its core interests. “We always insist that related disputes be solved through dialogue and negotiation,” Chang told a joint news conference at the Pentagon. “However, no one should fantasize that China would barter away our core interests, and no one should underestimate our will and determination in defending our territory, sovereignty and maritime rights,” he said.

US spying raises tensions with China

US surveillance activities around China are soaring, while US vessels and planes are coming closer to Chinese ships and aircraft in China's exclusive economic zones in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, said Guan Youfei, director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Ministry of National Defense. "Any country would feel uneasy and threatened under such high-frequency reconnaissance," Guan said. "It goes against the good momentum of building a new type of relationship between the two militaries."

2 Chinese ships still in Co May Shoal

Philippine local fishermen reported on August 23^rd to the satellite office in Puerto Princesa City of Kalayaan Mayor Eugenio Bito-onon the presence of the two Chinese paramilitary vessels near Co May Shoal.  Bito-onon said the fishermen left the area for Palawan after cooking and eating their meals without the Chinese ships seeing them.

Taiwanese surveying ships end illegal data-gathering mission for Ba Binh Island

A Taiwanese naval surveying ship has completed its mission to gather underwater nautical information of the maritime area of Ba Binh Island, a local newspaper said on August 24^th. The nautical data gathered by Da Guan survey ship (達觀艦) is expected to be used as a reference for Taiwan government's ongoing project to expand the Ba Binh Island wharf next year, the United Evening News said.

Vietnam

Exhibition affirms Vietnam’s Hoang Sa, Truong Sa

After Hanoi in the north and Ha Tinh province in the central region, Ho Chi Minh City in the south is the next stop-over for the exhibition “Vietnam’s Hoang Sa, Truong Sa – Historical Evidence”. The event, which kicked off on August 22^nd, displays nearly 150 maps and documents affirming Vietnam’s sovereignty over Hoang Sa and Truong Sa archipelagos.  The exhibits include versions of documents in traditional Chinese, Vietnamese and French languages issued by Vietnamese feudal states from the 17th century to the early 20th century, 95 maps published by Vietnam, China and Western countries from the 16th century, and four atlases published by China in 1908, 1917, 1919 and 1933.

The U.S.

US Secretary of Defense Hagel to tour Southeast Asia

US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel departed on August 22^nd on a tour of Southeast Asia to bolster US military ties with regional partners who face increasing concerns over maritime disputes with China. Hagel announced he will fly to Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei and the Philippines in a week-long visit, with a meeting of ASEAN defence ministers on August 28^th-29^th serving as an anchor for the trip. Rival territorial claims in the South China Sea are expected to feature high on the agenda of the ASEAN discussions in Brunei next August 28^th-29^th, officials said.

United States Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel reiterates support for a Code of Conduct

United States Defense Secretary reiterated support for a resolution of the disputes in the South China Sea on August 25^th. "We continue to call on all parties to exercise restraint in keeping with the 2002 Declaration of Conduct (DOC) and to resolve any incidents peacefully without using intimidation, coercion or aggression," Hagel told a room of military personnels during his trip to Malaysia's capital Kuala Lumpur.

Regional Snapshots

Chinese ships head for search exercises with US Navy

Three Chinese ships are sailing east to join rare naval drills with the United States as Beijing ramps up its military diplomacy amid regional territorial disputes and other tensions. The ships left the port of Qingdao on August 20^th to participate in search-and-rescue drills with the U.S. Navy in the waters off Hawaii. Afterward, the ships will continue on to Australia and New Zealand for similar exercises  The naval drills build on a commitment to create stronger ties made by President Barack Obama and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at a June summit in California, and are an “important mission of military diplomacy,” deputy navy commander Xu Hongmeng said, according to the military’s official newspaper, People’s Liberation Army Daily.

Cambodia, China pledge to boost ties

Cambodian and Chinese top diplomats on August 21^st pledged to maintain and further boost bilateral ties and cooperation for the mutual benefits of the two countries and peoples. The pledge was made during an August 21 talk between Cambodia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Hor Namhong and visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Phnom Penh. Speaking at a joint press conference after the talk, Wang said the ties between Cambodia and China have been profoundly strengthened and developed day by day since the establishment of their ties in 1958.

Singapore PM to visit China

Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will pay an official visit to China from Aug. 25 to 31 at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying announced August 21^st.

Asia-Pacific navies to hold joint drill in South China Sea

The navies of the 10-member ASEAN and eight other countries, including the United States, Japan, China, Russia, India, will participate in a joint exercise in Indonesian waters of the South China Sea next year, the Indonesian Navy announced August 22^nd. It said "Komodo Multilateral Exercise 2014," aimed partly at countering maritime threats, will take place in April 2014 in the waters off the Natuna and Anambas archipelagos, located between the Malaysian Peninsula and the island of Borneo.

India, China conduct 5th strategic dialogue

The 5th round of the India-China Strategic Dialogue was held on August 20^th in New Delhi by Indian Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin. During the 4-hour meeting, the two delegations discussed bilateral, regional, and global issues…The two sides also planned for the China visit by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh by the end of this year.

US, Philippines vow freedom of navigation

The United States and the Philippines have vowed to maintain freedom of navigation in a Southeast Asia increasingly beset by maritime territorial rows, the two military allies said. The military chiefs of the two countries made the pledge in the United States on Thursday as their governments held talks on expanding the American military presence in the Philippines, a joint statement said. “We share a common interest in maintaining freedom of navigation, unimpeded lawful commerce, and transit of people and goods across the seas,” said Armed Forces of the Philippines chief General Emmanuel Bautista and General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff.

U.S., Malaysia vow to increase military cooperation

U.S. and Malaysian defence officials said Sunday that the two countries would continue to boost military ties and eyes on more areas for cooperation. Speaking at a joint press conference with his Malaysian counterpart Hishammuddin Hussein, U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel said the United States is committed to strengthening the military partnership with Malaysia. "U.S. is committed to continuing to assist Malaysia's military, as it increases its capability in areas like humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, peace keeping, maritime security and counter terrorism,"he said.

Commentaries & Analyses

Japan and the Philippines unite against China

By Julius Cesar I. Trajano

When it was created in 2011, the purpose of the Japan–Philippines Strategic Partnership was simply to facilitate the exchange of goods, services, people and investments between the two economies through the implementation of the Japan–Philippines Economic Partnership Agreement. But ever since Abe was elected, the relationship has shifted focus to maritime security cooperation. So it was no surprise when Prime Minister Abe promised 10 patrol vessels to the Philippine Coast Guard through a loan agreement. In itself, this should not alarm anyone. Both the Philippines and Japan are maritime nations who want to ensure maritime security and freedom of navigation in the region’s vital Sea Lines of Communication. In context, however, this cooperation can be seen as a clear response to a common threat — China’s maritime build-up in the East and South China Seas. The relationship with Japan is just one element in the Philippines’ broader strategy: to intensify defence cooperation with its allies to compensate for its limited military capability and insecurity. Manila’s multilateral approach to security in the South China Sea is also a bid to counter Beijing’s insistence on bilateralism, which may legally and strategically undermine Manila’s territorial claims. This is why President Aquino will give the United States and Japan access to the Subic Naval Base, a former US military facility facing the South China Sea. Japan, too, gains from increased cooperation. The Philippines will play a role in Japan’s nascent defence strategy of deploying Japanese marine troops and surveillance drones to protect its remote islands in the East China Sea. Also, a better relationship with the Philippines fits in with Japan’s foreign policy strategy of re-engaging ASEAN. But Japan cannot be an effective counterweight to China on its own. China is not likely to be intimidated. It is only the United States, still the dominant Pacific power, which can guarantee peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific through its military presence. Still, the revitalised partnership will be useful, and it is not just about counter-balancing China. Prime Minister Abe and President Aquino pledged to bolster economic cooperation at a time when both Japan and the Philippines are undergoing an economic renaissance and gaining international confidence by combining fiscal stimulus with economic reform. Japan’s and the Philippines’ strategic and economic interests are converging. Their relationship is no longer defined by the bitter memories of brutal Japanese occupation. Instead, their priorities are to ensure economic growth and counter China’s assertiveness.

‘Weathermakers’ can control South China Sea political storms

By Tang Siew Mun

In ASEAN 46th Ministerial Meeting in Bandar Seri Begawan, the group took a step toward resolving its disputes in the South China Sea. The success of the meeting made it a contrast with last year’s summit in Phnom Penh, where foreign ministers were unable to agree on a joint communiqué for the first time in ASEAN history. The success of the meeting made it a contrast with last year’s summit in Phnom Penh, where foreign ministers were unable to agree on a joint communiqué for the first time in ASEAN history. As chair, Brunei deserves high praise for its astute and effective handling of the meeting, which secured an agreement between ASEAN and China to commence official consultations on the formulation of a Code of Conduct on the South China Sea. But it is too early to celebrate just yet. Getting ASEAN and China to the negotiating table is only the first step. If the Code of Conduct is to help maintain peace in the South China Sea, the talks must be concluded quickly. Undue delay could lead to frustration among the claimants, who may well take matters into their own hands to strengthen their respective positions, and in doing so ratchet up the tension again. For the Code of Conduct negotiations to conclude quickly ASEAN must convince the Philippines to fully commit to the negotiating process. Through formal or informal channels, ASEAN must win over the Philippines. After all, the best way for Manila and ASEAN to prevent armed conflict is to conclude a Code of Conduct with China. It would be counterproductive for the Philippines to adopt a hedging strategy by availing itself of the benefits of the Code of Conduct process while cosying up to the United States and Japan for military support. Manila’s attempts to cultivate US and Japanese political and military support only weakens ASEAN’s longstanding efforts to manage the South China Sea through diplomacy and undermines China’s commitment to the Code of Conduct. While sailors and fishermen can’t do much about changing weather patterns, national leaders can be the masters of political storms. Whether they can control the South China Sea depends on the success of negotiations for a Code of Conduct. The failure of the process, in contrast, could imperil regional security.

Pacific pivot sparks US-China arms race

By George Gao.

Analysts have noted evidence of a new conventional arms race between the the US and China. The US and China have the world's highest defense budgets, running up to US$682 and $166 billion in 2012, respectively, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). China has invested in a range of anti-ship, land attack, and ballistic missiles, as well as counter-space weapons and military cyberspace "capabilities", according to a 2013 US Department of Defense (DOD) report. "Conventional arms competition between the US and China is primarily over US military access to the region," said Bonnie Glaser, a senior adviser for Asia in the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). "China is developing (A2/AD) capabilities that seek to deny the US such access in a crisis, and the US is determined to sustain access and operational maneuverability," she said. While China is expected to streamline and modernize its nuclear force, specifically for second-strike or retaliatory purposes if another country instigates the first strike, analysts don't see the arms race extending into the nuclear realm. "Right now, I don't see a high probability of China dramatically increasing the size of its nuclear forces," said Elbridge Colby, co-chair of a working group that penned the report "Nuclear Weapons and US-China Relations" published by CSIS. China ''does not appear to want to engage in a nuclear arms race with the US, both because that would likely spur countervailing responses by the US and other countries in the region, and because it views too much expenditure on nuclear arms as wasteful," Colby said. Asked for ways to prevent the US and China from entering into a classic security dilemma and arms race, Shen Dingli, Chinese security expert said: "If the US would cease to do its pivoting; if the US would cease to build up its missile defense; if the US would cease its space military program, and if China would follow suit."

Manila, Beijing, and UNCLOS: A test case?

By Alex Calvo

The decision by Manila to initiate international arbitration proceedings against Beijing under UNCLOS prompts the question of whether right or might will determine the fate of territorial claims in the South China Sea. The question is whether international law and diplomacy will play a significant role in securing a peaceful settlement, or at least an interim compromise that countries can live with for some decades, or whether it will be pushed aside leaving the fate of this area to be determined by force of arms. The answer to this question need not be black or white, in the sense that international law does not operate in a vacuum. While made of rules and institutions, it reflects at least to some extent the balance of power at any given time. The case could also end in a compromise agreement featuring international law and the simultaneous amendment of international law. A wide range of options remains open. Countries are rearming, yet they keep talking. What is clear is that, whichever scenario prevails, the consequences will be felt throughout Asia and the Pacific and beyond for decades to come.