Weekly Bulletin (17 September - 23 September)

Activities of the Claimants

Chinese Vice President meets U.S. Secretary of Defense

Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping met with U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, on 19^th September. At the meeting, Panetta said he appreciates Xi's all-round support to encourage the military-to-military relationship and that he has confidence in better dialogues and communication between the two countries.

China's Xi seeks to reassure Southeast Asia on sea dispute

Speaking at the opening of a trade fair in southern China for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members, Vice President Xi said China's own prosperity could only be guaranteed by having good relations with its neighbors. "The more progress China makes in development and the closer its links with the region and the world, the more important it is for the country to have a stable regional environment and a peaceful international environment," Xi said.

China hopes China-Philippines ties back on track

China's Vice President Xi Jinping that he hopes bilateral relations between China and the Philippines could come back to the right track. "China-Philippines relations have encountered some difficulties. However, through effective communications between the two sides, the tensions have been eased," Xi told the Philippine Interior and Local Government Secretary Mar Roxas, a special envoy of the Philippine President Benigno S. Aquino III. "I hope the situation would not reverse backwards and bilateral relations could come back to the track of normal development," Xi said when meeting Roxas on the sidelines of the ninth China-ASEAN Expo in Nanning, capital of south China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.

China navy takes delivery of first aircraft carrier

China's first aircraft carrier was handed to the navy of the People's Liberation Army, state press said, amid rising tensions over disputed waters in the East and South China Seas. The handover ceremony of the 300-metre (990-foot) ship, a former Soviet carrier called the Varyag, took place in northeast China's port of Dalian after a lengthy refitting by a Chinese shipbuilder, the Global Times reported.

China to promote drones for marine surveillance

China will promote the use of drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), to strengthen the nation's marine surveillance, the State Oceanic Administration (SOA) said. The SOA verified and accepted a pilot program of using drones to undertake remote-sensing marine surveillance in Lianyungang, a costal city in eastern Jiangsu Province.

Vietnam

Vietnamese Prime Minister meets China’s Vice President

Welcoming the Vietnamese PM and delegation, China’s Vice President Xi Jinping described their trip to China a signal of respect from the Vietnamese Party and State to the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. The two leaders agreed upon many solutions to boost the bilateral relations in the time to come, such as increasing high-level visits, expanding cooperation for mutual benefits in all fields, and enhancing ministerial and local cooperation as well as people-to-people exchange. They unanimously asserted that it is necessary to secure peace and stability in East Sea, and soundly settle all issues through negotiations. PM Dung emphasized that the two sides should seriously follow the Agreement on fundamental principles for dealing with sea-related issues and disputes, especially through friendly talks on the basis of international law.

The Philippines

Philippines says coup plotter in secret China talks

The Philippines said a politician who was once jailed for coup plotting had been in secret talks with China over a territorial row, as the tactic appeared to backfire amid bitter infighting. Senator Antonio Trillanes had been "authorised" to hold back-channel talks with Chinese officials to settle a row over competing claims to Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, a spokesman for President Benigno Aquino said. Trillanes claimed he had been responsible for easing tensions with China after the dispute erupted in April, and he had met "top Chinese officials" at least 15 times in Manila and in Beijing since May.

Philippines sends special envoy to China

Newly installed Interior and Philippine Local Government Secretary Mar Roxas confirmed he will be flying to China tonight as the country’s “special envoy”. Roxas said that sometime after his confirmation at the Senate yesterday, he met with Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario and Philippine President Benigno Aquino III and was instructed to fly to China. He was tasked to deliver or relay the President's message regarding several matters concerning the Philippines and China.

The U.S.

US Senator: “Creative American Leadership Needed to Resolve South China Sea Disputes”

Chairing a Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs hearing, US Senator Jim Webb called on the Administration to use American influence to discourage the use of military force or the unilateral expansion of sovereignty claims in East Asia, and to employ the "creative energy of our leadership" to seek the resolution of escalating maritime territorial disputes.

“South China Sea disputes could threaten the global economy, US recovery, or regional security”

In the Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Kurt M. Campbell, Assistant Secretary said “We cannot afford to allow disputes in the South China Sea to endanger the global economy, our recovery, or regional security: diplomatic approaches must prevail.” He also stressed that the U.S. will continue to urge all parties to clarify and pursue their territorial and maritime claims in terms consistent with international law, including the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention.

China opens naval base to US defense chief

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta got a rare first-hand look at a Chinese naval base, as Washington pushes security dialogue with a country that could rival US power in the Asia-Pacific. Chinese officers have promised to give Panetta a tour of one of their newer frigates and diesel submarines, a day after he spoke to army cadets at an engineering academy in Beijing.

Regional Snapshots

Manila to hold ASEAN maritime summit

The third ASEAN Maritime Forum and the first Expanded Maritime Forum will be held in Manila from October 3^rd to 5^th. The meeting is part of ASEAN’s goal of political and security engagement with the regional bloc’s dialogue partners. According to Department of Foreign Affairs Undersecretary for Policy Erlinda Basilio,

the summit will be the first time that these matters will be discussed among the 18 members of the East Asia Summit (EAS): China, Japan, the US, India, New Zealand, South Korea, Russia, Australia and 10 ASEAN members.

Asean mulls 'new political channels' to address maritime disputes

ASEAN lawmakers are considering setting up an advisory group of high-level parliamentarians to create "new political channels" to address disputes in the South China Sea. The proposed body, which would advise ASEAN, is included in a draft political resolution being discussed at the annual meeting of the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Assembly (AIPA) in Indonesia. The "Resolution on the Situation in the South China Sea" is among 11 resolutions expected to be adopted by the ASEAN lawmakers meeting this week.

Indonesia to hold conference on South China Sea issue

Scholars and security experts from eight countries gathered in Jakarta to discuss peace and stability in the South China Sea as well as Asia Pacific and ASEAN unity and regional power engagement and also Indonesia’s role in maintaining peace in the region. The one-day gathering is jointly organized by CASS-India, a leading think tank in the subcontinent, Indonesia’s Institute of Defense and Security Studies (IODAS) and the Institute for Maritime Studies (IMS). Coordinating Legal, Political and Security Affairs Minister Djoko Suyanto will act as the keynote speaker.

China, Malaysia discuss South China Sea issue

Malaysia and China continue to strengthen the existing bilateral ties without letting the overlapping claims in the South China Sea hamper the efforts. The bilateral ties between Malaysia and China were taken greater heights during the half-hour between Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister Ta Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Chines Vice-President Xi Jinping. The deputy prime minister said Malaysia believed that the overlapping claims should be resolved peacefully through dialogues and negotiations between the countries involved, without involving military powers and intimidation, and that it should also be based on international law and not history.

Commentaries & Analyses

China's interest is guarding its subs

The tug-of-war over the South China Sea is seen mainly as a struggle among rival claimants - China, Taiwan and several South-East Asian states - for control of valuable fisheries as well as sea bed oil, natural gas and mineral resources. But recent developments in China's nuclear weapons program suggest there is another important dimension to China's increasing assertiveness in enforcing its claimed jurisdiction in the semi-enclosed sea: protecting a new generation of nuclear-powered submarines armed with atomic warheads and based at Sanya on China's Hainan Island. Okazaki Institute in Tokyo special research fellow Tetsuo Kotani says, ''Without understanding the nuclear dimension of the South China Sea disputes, China's maritime expansion makes little sense.'' These new generation Chinese subs and the nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles they could launch while submerged would be able to target potential adversaries in the Asia-Pacific and US bases in the region. Eventually, with longer-range intercontinental missiles, they could cover the whole of the US from launch points in the deep waters of the South China Sea without having to venture too far from their rock shelter tunnels bored into a mountain that forms part of the Sanya naval base for China's South Sea Fleet. This would give China a more effective deterrent against nuclear attack, one that operated from under the sea in addition to land-based nuclear missiles.

Escalating Tensions in the South China Sea

The United States, as a global power, must necessarily be mindful of a range of dangerous situations around the world. Potentially the most dangerous of these centers on the South China Sea, a narrow waterway wedged between the Asian continent and the Philippines archipelago. Two sets of disputes make the South China Sea more dangerous and unpredictable than the standoffs over Taiwan or the Korean peninsula. The first are overlapping territorial claims by China and four Southeast Asian states: Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. All except Brunei have occupied islands in the South China Sea, and there are regular maritime clashes between fishermen, oil-exploration ships and naval or coast-guard vessels as the claimants refuse to concede ground to their competitors. The other standoff is between China and the United States. Since 1992, Beijing has claimed much of the South China Sea as its territorial waters—meaning that foreign ships and aircraft should seek its permission before entering the waterways it claims. The United States rejects China’s claim and maintains that the shipping lanes in the South China Sea are international waters and therefore open to free navigation. Washington is facing a difficult juggling act in the South China Sea. It is trying to maintain a position of principle on the freedom of navigation, while reassuring Beijing that this isn’t a form of containment. At the same time, it is trying to reassure allies, such as the Philippines, and newer security partners, such as Vietnam, that it will back their stands against their giant northern neighbor.

Too small an ocean

“The Pacific is big enough for all of us,” declared Hillary Clinton, America’s secretary of state. Or is it? Xinhua, the official Chinese news agency, countered this week that the ocean is also “small enough to create conflicts that can threaten peace in the region and the world at large”. Certainly, America and China have recently been bumping heads in the western Pacific but the two sides disagree about the cause of the problem. For America it is China’s increasingly assertive stance on territorial disputes: with South-East Asian countries in the South China Sea, and, farther north, with Japan. To China it is American meddling, which, as Xinhua put it, “has apparently emboldened certain relevant parties to make provocations against China”. The competition is more fundamental, however, than either of these finger-pointing explanations allows. It is the inevitable rivalry between an incumbent superpower and a rapidly rising one. A decade ago Bill Clinton suggested America could use its unprecedented power to create a world in which it would be comfortable living when it was “no longer top dog on the global block”. But it would take a very brave serving president to advocate a negotiated end to American leadership in the Pacific; and perhaps an even braver Chinese leader to agree to limit his country’s rise.

South China Sea: More than Just 'Free Navigation'

The South China Sea territorial dispute increasingly looks like a point of strategic friction between the United States and China. The US vision includes a system of norms and international laws that ensure, among other things, that small states are protected from predation by larger states and that dispute resolution procedures should be fair. China, on the other hand, appears to favor restoring a Chinese sphere of influence in East and Southeast Asia such as the Middle Kingdom enjoyed anciently. Under this arrangement, the rules of international interaction would reflect basic Chinese interests. Beijing would expect regional governments not to take major decisions that run contrary to Chinese preferences. Beijing’s current unwillingness to base Chinese claims in the Law of the Sea treaty may reflect the sentiment that this mostly Western-written body of law will not be needed when China resumes its historical position of regional dominance. Some observers see the China-US contention over the South China Sea as simply a squabble between two great powers that are both seeking regional domination, with each acting in its respective hegemonic self-interest rather than in defense of some higher principle. China is trying to implement a might-makes-right order, while the United States is trying to ensure that smaller countries do not get steamrolled. This is the real issue, and US officials should make it clear.

Make law, not war

Sovereignty over coastal waters has since 1982 been guided by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). That UNCLOS allows for such wrangling is its greatest strength, says Richard Schofield, a borders expert at King’s College London. That UNCLOS allows for such wrangling is its greatest strength, says Richard Schofield, a borders expert at King’s College London. Since it emphasises fairness and historical facts on the ground over dogmatic adherence to geometry, the convention has probably prevented conflict. Lines in the sea, once drawn by big powers, are now subject to reasoned debate. Of the main courts that rule on maritime boundaries—the ICJ, the Permanent Court of Arbitration and the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea—only the ICJ can enforce its decisions. And if a dispute involves overlapping claims, diplomacy will dominate, as is the case in the South China Sea, a hotly disputed space. Yet for the majority of disputes, the courts can provide fair results. It may take decades to finish the job, but a long wait is better than the alternative. In the words of one international lawyer: going to court is always cheaper than going to war.

Little Islands Are Big Trouble In The South China Sea

"I think what makes this situation particularly intractable is that China's economic and strategic interests broadly coincide in the South China Sea," says John Ciorciari, a professor who specializes in international affairs at the University of Michigan's Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy. The economic interests could be enormous. Estimates vary wildly, but one Chinese study has put the potential oil reserves in the South China Sea at 213 billion barrels — roughly 80 percent of Saudi Arabia's known reserves. The natural gas reserves in the region are said to be five times those of the U.S. Speaking in Indonesia ahead of her arrival in Beijing, Clinton reiterated the U.S. position that the various island disputes — which have put China at odds with nearly every one of its maritime neighbors — should be resolved "collaboratively ... without coercion, without intimidation, without threats and without the use of force." No one expects any of the island disputes to break out into a shooting war anytime soon. Instead, the issue is likely to remain on the backburner for now. Ciorciari likens the standoff between China and the various regional claimants to Gulliver and the Lilliputians. The Lilliputians, he says, need some time to tie China into a set of relationships that they hope will give them at least the chance of sharing the [oil and gas] proceeds through joint arrangements rather than have China exercise control over the whole of the South China Sea."