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Activities of the Claimants

China

4 Chinese ships back at Co May Shoal

Four Chinese surveillance ships have returned to Co May Shoal after several months of absence. A Philippine security official who asked not be named said two of the Chinese ships have the 306 and 363 markings on their bows, while the two others look like frigates. “They’ve been spotted near Ayungin since last week,” the security official said.

China: No plans for SEA air zone

China has no plans of establishing an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea, a ranking Taiwanese official said February 17th, citing an assurance from Beijing. Chu-Chia Lin, deputy minister of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), told an international group of reporters that China’s assurance came after Taipei asked Beijing not to establish an ADIZ over the South China Sea. “They said so far they have no intention to put ADIZ in South China Sea,” said Lin. “When mainland China first put ADIZ in East China Sea, we immediately issued our protest… Mainland China said the ADIZ (in East China Sea) is not aiming for Taiwan,” added the Taiwanese official.

The Philippines

Filipino military chief: China claims are nonsense

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The Philippine military chief vowed February 20th to defend the country's fishermen against any Chinese "terror or intimidation" in the South China Sea, the latest sign of sharpening tensions in what is a potential global flash point. In an interview with The Associated Press, Gen. Emmanuel Bautista said Chinese claims to islands just off the Philippine coast are "of course absolute nonsense. Just take a look at the map." "Our fishermen will continue on fishing, assert their rights on those areas. They should go on with their lives and live their life as fishermen, not to bow down to terror or intimidation," Bautista said, referring to an incident in which he said a fishing vessel was sprayed by a water cannon on a Chinese boat. Asked if the Philippine military would defend the fisherman in the event of another incident, he said, "To the best we can, we will support them, especially if there is more aggression and unnecessary use of force."

Philippines to buy 12 South Korean fighters for $422 million

The Philippines is to acquire a squadron of FA-50 fighters from South Korea in a deal worth $422 million (18.9 billion pesos), a senior Philippine defense official said on February 21st, boosting its capability as tension simmers in the South China Sea. Fernando Manalo, undersecretary of defense for finance, munitions, installations and materiel, said the government had reached an agreement with Korean Aerospace Industries Ltd. for 12 of the aircraft and would sign a contract before March 15th. "This is a very important project together with the frigate of the navy because of our objective of building a minimum credible defense," Manalo told reporters.

Indonesia

Indonesia tells China it will not accept an air defence zone over South China Sea

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At a hearing on February 18th by the parliamentary committee on defence and foreign affairs, Indonesia Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa stated “We have firmly told China we will not accept a similar zone if it is adopted in the South China Sea”. “And the signal we have received thus far is, China does not plan to adopt a similar zone in the South China Sea.”

Malaysia

Malaysia Dismisses Talk of Chinese Naval Incursion

Malaysia's foreign minister brushed off a media report that Chinese naval vessels entered its waters last month, maintaining the country's stance of publicly saying little against its largest trading partner's military flexing in the region. "I have not got any confirmation on the presence of Chinese vessels or ships in that region," Anifah Aman told reporters after a meeting February 17th with Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, who is on her first official visit to Malaysia. "Nevertheless, any intrusion into our territory will not get a very good response from us."

The U.S.

Asia-Pacific stability depends on success of ASEAN code of conduct

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U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry increased diplomatic pressure on China on February 17th to resolve maritime disputes with Southeast Asia based on international legal principles, rather than through individual deals as Beijing prefers. Speaking in Jakarta, Kerry said the stability of the Asia-Pacific depended on achieving a binding code of conduct to help nations peacefully address competing claims in the South China Sea and to avoid conflict in one of the world's most strategically important waterways. "It's not an exaggeration to say that the region's future stability will depend in part on the success and the timeliness of the effort to produce a code of conduct," Kerry told a news conference in the Indonesian capital during a trip to Asia and the Middle East.

Full remarks

Australia

Australia backs sea ‘code of conduct’

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop on February 20th voiced her support for the completion of a “code of conduct” aimed at reducing tensions amid China’s aggressive claim to almost all of the South China Sea. Bishop, who is on a visit to the Philippines, said she discussed the matter with her Filipino counterpart, Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario. Bishop said Australia favored the push by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) to craft a “code of conduct” to better manage the issues. “In the case of the South China Sea, we support Asean objectives in concluding a code of conduct with China and we hope that there will be some early progress on that,” she said. “We urge all sides not to escalate tensions,” she added.'

Regional Snapshots

Vietnam, China discuss Tonkin Gulf, sea issues

Vietnamese and Chinese experts discussed the sea area off the Tonkin Gulf during the fifth expert-level negotiation round in Hanoi on February 19th and 20th. The two sides confirmed to seriously implement the common perception of Vietnamese and Chinese high-ranking leaders on strengthening talks on the delimitation of the sea area off the gulf and how to further cooperation for mutual development there. They also discussed specific contents regarding the issues. The fifth round of negotiations on cooperation in less sensitive sea issues between Vietnam and China took place in Hanoi at the same time.

China, US eye dialogue between land forces

Senior military officials of China and the United States on February 21th agreed to strengthen pragmatic cooperation and embark on a dialogue mechanism between the two land forces. During the talks with the US Army Chief of Staff Ray Odierno, Wang Ning, Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) said that the two sides reached a consensus on developing a new model of military-to-military relations based on the new model of China-USrelations. Wang said the two sides should continue to enhance dialogue, boost mutual trust, properly handle differences and strengthen cooperation,especially in the fields of antiterrorism, humanitarian aid, peacekeeping operations and college education. Odierno said the US side believes it is important to establish strong  military relations. Land forces of the two militaries should strengthen communication and cooperation from a long-term perspective.

ASEAN, Japan enhance defence cooperation

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Senior defence officials from Japan and ASEAN member nations gathered in Okinawa, Japan from February 17th-19th for the 5th Japan-ASEAN deputy-ministerial defence cooperation forum to discuss plans for building future defence ability to deal with non-traditional security issues. In his message sent to the forum, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has underlined the significance of the ASEAN-Japan defence cooperation in maintaining peace, development and prosperity in the region. He reaffirmed the cooperation policy between the two sides in all-round aspects, especially in defence, saying that the forum marked a new step of development in the partnership between Japan and ASEAN over the past 40 years. At the forum, representatives from ASEAN’s member nations praised the role played by the host in developing specific programmes and projects to support its ASEAN partners in building their military and defence capacity to cope with non-traditional security issues caused by climate change as well as high-tech crimes.

Commentaries & Analyses

China’s “Nine-Dash Line” is Dangerous

By Zachary Keck

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Recently, the U.S. has lodged its objection to China’s “nine-dash-line” claim to the South China Sea. It is right to do so for two reasons. First, in contrast to what China claims, the U.S. clearly stating its position on the conflict will reduce the chance that the U.S. and China will come to blows over the South China Sea. Directly challenging the legitimacy of China’s “nine-dash line” does carry some risks. In particular, although it’s likely to give China greater pause in pushing its claims in the South China Sea, it also puts the U.S. in a tough spot if China does decide to ignore America’s warning. That being said, the Obama administration has taken adequate measures to minimize this danger by stating that it would strengthen the U.S. military presence in Asia should Beijing cross certain red lines. Thus, while the U.S. has hardened its position, it has not put itself on a collision course with China. The second and more important reason the U.S. is right in challenging China’s “nine-dash line” in the South China Sea is that Beijing’s claim is inherently destabilizing and not just for the Asia. China’s claim to 90 percent of the South China Sea is rooted primarily in the notion that past Chinese rulers have at times maintained sovereignty over the various islands and reefs in the waters.  Allowing China to establish the principle that states can claim territory based on what their country has at times controlled would be disastrous for the simple reason that borders have been fluid throughout history. As a result, there would be a never-ending series of overlapping claims of sovereignty that would place countless states on a path to conflict. Consider Europe, for example. The Ottoman Empire controlled large parts of Europe at various times, giving modern day Turkey the right to claim sovereignty over the continent. France and Germany could each claim sovereignty over most of Western and parts of Eastern Europe owing to the Napoleonic and Nazi Germany eras. Ironically, few states would fare worse than China should its “nine-dash line” principle be upheld given how often parts of China have been invaded and occupied by outsiders. All of this is to say that the principle behind China’s “nine-dash line” is dangerous for the general maintenance of peace and stability in the global system. The United States in particular, but all nations including China, would be derelict in their duties as nation-states to allow it to stand.

The South China Sea diputes: Formula for a paradigm shift?

By Robert C Beckman and Clive H Schofield

Can China bring its maritime claims into conformity with the international law and still protect its legitimate interests in the South China Sea? We believe that it can, and that it would be in China’s interests to do so, not least because this could open the door to serious discussions on joint development in areas of overlapping maritime claims. To begin with, China could trigger a paradigm shift in the disputes in the South China Sea if it were to issue charts indicating the outer limit of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) claims from the islands over which it claims sovereignty. China could limit its EEZ claim to just the 12 largest islands in the Spratlys. Although the total land area of these islands is only about two square kilometres, they all have vegetation and in some cases roads and structures have been built on them. Therefore, it can be argued in good faith that they are “islands” entitled in principle to EEZ and continental shelf rights of their own under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and are not “rocks which cannot sustain human habitation or economic life of their own” that are only entitled to a 12 nm territorial sea. While it may appear that using only the larger disputed islands to generate its EEZ claim would entail a ‘loss’ of potential maritime areas to China, actually the impact would be minimal because of the way in which the islands are grouped in close proximity to each other, allowing a broad sweep of EEZ claims. The islands in question could be given full effect – the full 200 nautical mile EEZ limits – in the direction of the open sea in the central part of the South China Sea. In the direction of the mainland coast or main archipelago of the ASEAN claimants, China could limit its EEZ claim from the selected islands to the theoretical ‘equidistance line’ between the islands and mainland coast or main archipelago. This is the mid-point in the waters from the islands claimed by China to the land belonging to the other claimant states. In summary, if China were to clarify the extent of its EEZ claims as described above it would send a clear signal to the international community that it is willing to pursue its interests in accordance with the rules of international law. This would help restore trust and confidence in the region. It could also trigger serious discussions and negotiations aimed at reaching a consensus on areas of overlapping claims defined in accordance with the provisions of UNCLOS and on provisional arrangements of a practical nature, including joint development arrangements, in these areas of overlapping claims.

Chinese Naval Patrol Prompts Conflicting Regional Response

By  Trefor Moss and Rob Taylor

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A three-week patrol by a Chinese naval flotilla in Southeast Asian waters has drawn conflicting responses from regional governments, exposing confusion over how to react to China's rising maritime power.  The Chinese vessels first conducted a patrol of the Paracel Islands, before proceeding to James Shoal, a reef some 50 miles off the coast of Malaysia in South China Sea areas claimed by both China and Malaysia. The flotilla then proceeded beyond waters claimed by Beijing to the Indian Ocean, where it conducted the first exercises by Chinese military vessels in waters south of Indonesia, before heading back north and holding live-fire drills in the Western Pacific. The ships returned to China on Feb. 11, after 23 days at sea. China's Ministry of Defense said the training it conducted during the mission "was not directed at any country or region, and had no relation to the regional situation," adding, "China has freedom of navigation and other legitimate rights in the relevant waters." Regardless of the Chinese mission's intent, the flotilla highlighted the growing reach of the People's Liberation Army Navy—and the dilemma that poses for China's neighbors. While viewing China's military modernization as a legitimate process, Southeast Asian governments are concerned about its implications, said Mr. Storey of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.  Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam have territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, and they fear China will assert its military power to secure its claims. But at the same time, Southeast Asian officials have shown little appetite for questioning China openly about the flotilla. The Vietnamese government didn't respond to requests for comment and has remained silent on the patrol of the Paracel Islands, though it has strongly criticized such activities in the past. Similarly, Malaysian officials were initially vague about the Chinese flotilla, with Foreign Minister Anifah Aman telling reporters on Feb. 17 that he didn't have "any confirmation on the presence of Chinese vessels or ships in that region." On Feb. 20, however, Chief of the Defense Force Gen. Zulkifeli Mohammed Zin finally acknowledged the Chinese presence near East Malaysia. He stressed that Chinese ships had a right to sail through the area, while adding: "They passed through James Shoal. They did not patrol James Shoal." Indonesian officials also initially appeared reluctant to broach the subject of the Chinese flotilla. However, on Feb. 19 Indonesia's Navy spokesman said maritime security forces were aware of four Chinese warships passing through Indonesian sea lanes in recent weeks. Australia's Defense Minister David Johnston, speaking to The Wall Street Journal after the flotilla's passage, stressed that the Chinese ships had been in international waters and were under no obligation to notify Australia ahead of their arrival in the Indian Ocean. Mr. Johnston said he was "relaxed" about the appearance of the Chinese navy closer to Australia than it had ventured in the past. "I think there's a lot of over-negativity about that sort of thing," he said, arguing for open engagement with China to reduce tensions. Nonetheless, Australian security analysts widely believe the fleet was on a mission to flex China's growing naval muscle despite strains with the new conservative government in Canberra, which has been critical of Beijing's decision to establish an air-defense zone in the East China Sea late last year. "The Chinese wanted to send a message that they will go where they want, and the message has been received that way here," said security analyst Hugh White, a former senior Australian defense department official. The policy of turning a blind eye to China's forays into Southeast Asian waters could soon become untenable, Mr. Storey said: "As the PLA Navy grows in strength, we're going to see more of this."

Tensions Set To Rise In The South China Sea

By Carl Thayer

Over the last month and a half, seven significant developments indicate that tensions in the South China Sea are set to rise in both the short and long term. The five short-term trends include: Philippine defiance of China’s fishing ban; continued inaction by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); the Chinese navy’s repeated assertions of sovereignty over James Shoal; the possibility of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea; and stronger United States opposition to China’s ADIZ and maritime territorial claims. The two long-term trends include new U.S. assessments of the future balance of power in the Asia-Pacific and continued Chinese maritime modernization. Current short-term and long-term security trends appear likely to exacerbate tensions over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The Philippines continues to engage in a war of words with China, while China continues to invest in Second Thomas Reef by stationing warships in the area. Differences in approach between the Philippines and Malaysia make it unlikely the four claimant states can reach a common position for ASEAN to endorse. ASEAN itself appears unable to reach a consensus that Chinese fishing bans in the South China Sea, coupled with the possible imposition of a Chinese ADIZ, are security issues affecting the whole of Southeast Asia. China is continuing its build-up and modernization of both PLAN warships and paramilitary Coast Guard vessels. The former continue to conduct military exercises in areas where China’s nine-dash line overlaps with the Exclusive Economic Zones of claimant states. The latter are increasing in size thus enabling them to patrol and remain on station in the South China Sea for longer periods. The current proactive U.S. challenge to China’s nine-dash line claim and opposition to any ADIZ in the South China Sea is likely to meet Chinese political, diplomatic and possibly military resistance in the form of challenges in contested waters. In the long-term, China’s naval modernization and expansion will result in the relative decline of U.S. naval primacy in the Western Pacific.