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Activities of the Claimants

China

Chinese manned submersible may dive in South China Sea 2013

The Jiaolong manned submersible may undertake a deep sea dive mission in the South China Sea in 2013, a commanding officer of Jiaolong said Monday (16th July). The sub, named after a mythological dragon, docked at the port of Qingdao in east China's Shandong Province on Monday (16th July) after making a record dive of 7,020 meters below sea level in the Pacific Ocean's Mariana Trench during a 44-day test mission.

Chinese fleet starts fishing in Spratly Islands

China's largest ever fishing fleet has begun fishing in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, as of Monday (16th July) night. The fleet of 30 vessels arrived in waters around the Yong-shu Reef (Fiery Cross Reef) on Sunday, after a 78-hour voyage from Hainan Province. They'll spend the next five to ten days fishing in these waters. The actual fishing has yet to begin but crews are busy preparing for store the fish.

Chinese fishing operation launched in Spratly Islands

A Chinese fleet of 30 boats from Hainan province plans to conduct an oceangoing fishing operation near waters off Zhubi Reef (Subi Reef) in the South China Sea on Tuesday (17th July) morning. The fleet, organized voluntarily by fishermen, decided to move the fishing operation from waters near Yongshu Reef (Fiery Cross Reef ) of the Spratly Islands to Zhubi Reef (Subi Reef), about 110 nautical miles (203 kilometers) away, the operation's deputy commander, Liang Yapai, said on Monday (16th July).

China's Sansha starts forming government

China on Tuesday (17th July) set up an organizing committee for the legislative body of Sansha, officially beginning the formation of the government of the newly established city in the South China Sea. The committee was set up by the Standing Committee of the Hainan Provincial People's Congress on Tuesday (17th July) morning in Haikou, capital of China's southernmost island province, according to the Standing Committee. It will organize the first municipal congress of Sansha, approving the electoral commission for the election of delegates and convening the first plenary meeting of the municipal congress. The congress will have 60 delegates directly elected, and its Standing Committee will have 15 members, said an official from the Standing Committee.

Armed fishermen

He Jianbin, chief of the Chinese state-run Baosha Fishing Corp., based in Hainan province, urged the Chinese government to make fishermen into Chinese militiamen. “If we put 5,000 Chinese fishing ships in the South China Sea, there will be 100,000 fishermen,” Mr. He stated in a June 28 commentary in the state-controlled Communist Party newspaper the Global Times. “And if we make all of them militiamen, give them weapons, we will have a military force stronger than all the combined forces of all the countries in the South China Sea. Every year, between May and August, when fishing activities are in recess, we should train these fishermen/militiamen to gain skills in fishing, production and military operations, making them a reserve force on the sea, and using them to solve our South China Sea problems”. 

US firms may join CNOOC (China National Offshore Oil Corp) oil plans

US companies may bid for oil exploration projects in the South China Sea, China's largest offshore oil explorer, China National Offshore Oil Corp, said on Tuesday (17th July). "US companies are displaying interest in bidding for the oil and gas projects, which have been progressing as scheduled," CNOOC Chairman Wang Yilin said on the sidelines of the China-US Enterprises Investment and Cooperation Forum. CNOOC, China's third-largest oil company, last month issued tenders seeking joint exploitation of nine offshore blocks in the South China Sea. The move came amid tension between the Philippines and China caused by their dispute over Scarborough Shoal.

Chinese landing ship spotted

A Philippine navy surveillance plane monitoring the activities of Chinese fishing vessels in the disputed Spratly Islands has spotted a Chinese landing ship in Subi Reef, an area only 12 nautical miles from the Philippine-occupied Pagasa Island (Thitu Island). The Chinese troop and logistics ship, a Yuting class with bow No. 934, is armed with three heavy guns, built-in cranes, and a helipad. “We are doing our best with what we have,” Philippine Wescom spokesman Lt. Col. Niel Estrella said of their surveillance and monitoring operations on the current security development in the Spratlys. Estrella said that monitoring operations yesterday (19th July) were hampered by bad weather in the area.

China to deploy military garrison in South China Sea

China's central military authority has approved to form and deploy a military garrison in the newly established city of Sansha. The garrison command will be a division-level command under the PLA's Hainan provincial sub-command, responsible for managing the city's national defense mobilization, military reserves and carrying out military operations. The PLA's Sansha Garrison Command will be under the dual leadership of the Hainan provincial sub-command and the city's civilian leaders.

China pledges to work with ASEAN to safeguard peace in South China Sea

China pledged to make joint efforts with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to safeguard regional peace and stability after the 10-member bloc issued a six-point statement on the South China Sea. "The Chinese side is willing to work together with the ASEAN members to implement the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) comprehensively and effectively," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said in response to a question on the ASEAN statement. Hong added that China is open to consultations with the ASEAN on the conclusion of a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.

Taiwanese university students wrap up visit to Spratly Islands

A group of Taiwanese university students and professors wrapped up a trip on Sunday to the Spratly Islands in the disputed South China Sea as part of Taiwan's all-out defense education, the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense said. The visit was aimed at helping the students gain a better understanding of the country's South China Sea policies, the ministry's defense efforts and issues such as ecological protection, the ministry added. 

Taiwan mulls extending runway in Spratly Island

Taiwan is considering extending the runway on the contested Spratly island in a move that could provoke fresh tensions in the heavily disputed South China Sea, media reported on Sunday (15th July). If approved, the project would extend by 500 meters the runway on Taiping (Ba Binh) Island, the largest in the disputed waters and some 860 miles from Taiwan, the Liberty Times said.

Vietnam

The Law of the Sea of Vietnam made public

On 16th July, The Vietnamese President’s Office announces seven laws and two resolutions. The seven laws include the Law of the Sea of Vietnam, the Law on Pricing, the Justice Assessment Law, the Law on Legal Dissemination and Education, the Law on Advertising, the Law on Water Resources (amended) and the Law on Handling Administrative Violations.

Vietnamese President highlights Vietnam-India strategic partnership

Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang has highlighted encouraging developments in the Vietnam-India traditional friendship and strategic partnership. At a reception given to Director General of the Indian Council of World Affairs, the think-tank of the Indian Ministry of External Relations, Rajiv K. Bathia, in Hanoi on July 18, President Sang spoke highly of India’s official development assistance to Vietnam. He said he believes the launch of the Hanoi-New Delhi direct air route will facilitate trade and cultural exchange between the two nations.

Vietnam supports Indonesian proposal on six fundamental principles on the East Sea (South China Sea)

Vietnam will continue to closely work with Indonesia in the field and together with other ASEAN members push up the building of the ASEAN Community by 2015, Vietnamese Foreign Minister Minh told his Indonesian counterpart Marty Natalegawa, at their talks in Hanoi on 18th July. They agreed that the East Sea is a common interest of ASEAN and the region. Minister Minh said he supports the Indonesian FM’s initiative on bringing into full play the central role of ASEAN on the East Sea issue as well as the proposal on six fundamental principles on the East Sea

Vietnam asks Taiwan to stop violating Vietnam’s sovereignty

A representative from the Vietnamese Foreign Ministry’s National Border Committee has said Vietnam has sufficient legal and historical evidence to affirm its sovereignty over Truong Sa (Spratly) and Hoang Sa (Paracel) archipelagos. The statement was given on July 18th in the context that on July 15th, Taiwan’s Liberty Times website reported that Taiwan is considering extending a runway an additional 500m on Ba Binh island in Vietnam’s Truong Sa archipelago. “Activities of parties in Truong Sa archipelago without Vietnam’s permission violate Vietnam’s sovereignty and international laws, especially the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, go against the spirit of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the East Sea (DOC) and cause tension in the East Sea,” the representative stressed.

The Philippines

Philippine navy ready for deployment in the disputed Spratlys Island Group

Colonel Arnulfo Marcelo Burgos Jr, the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ (AFP) official spokesman said today (18th July) that the AFP is ready to assist the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) in protecting the nation’s sovereignty along the disputed Spratlys Islands. However he clarified that the PCG is the agency which is tasked with the enforcement of the maritime laws, and that the AFP can only supplement and help the PCG in their task.

Philippines warns China fishermen to stay away

The Philippines on Monday (16th July) warned a large Chinese fishing fleet in the Spratlys to stay clear of its waters amid a continuing face-off between the two countries over disputed territory. Philippine Foreign Affairs spokesman Raul Hernandez said the Philippine coastguard would check on the location of the Chinese vessels in the South China Sea, to ensure they do not enter the country's 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). "If these (ships) are going to our EEZ, we will file a protest because this is our EEZ and it is only the Philippines (that has) the sovereign right to explore, exploit and manage the resources in that area," he told reporters.

Others

Indonesian president warns over South China Sea

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono Tuesday (17th July) said there would be no quick resolution to competing territorial claims in the South China Sea, warning tensions must not be allowed to escalate. "It is safe to assume, given the extreme complexity of the overlapping claims, that we will not see a diplomatic resolution of the South China Sea disputes in the short term, perhaps even in the medium term," said Yudhoyono. "Short of a comprehensive resolution, the claimants must do their best to manage and contain the disputes to make sure that it does not escalate or worse lead to the outbreak of military clashes," he told the First Strategic Review Forum in Jakarta.

Indonesia seeks to mend SE Asia rift over South China Sea

Indonesia's top diplomat began a Southeast Asian tour on Wednesday (18th July) to try to patch up an internal rift within the ASEAN group over territorial disputes in the South China Sea, saying the split represented a critical moment for the regional bloc. "Unfortunately last week there were some difficulties but I believe ... what took place in Phnom Penh was an exception, it's not the rule," Indonesia's Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said in Hanoi, the second stop on his regional tour after Manila.

India's ONGC to Continue Exploration in South China Sea Off Vietnam

ONGC Videsh Ltd., the overseas investment arm of ONGC, has accepted Vietnam's proposal to stay invested in Block 128 as Hanoi has offered additional data that can help to make future exploration economically feasible and discovering hydrocarbons commercially viable, a senior executive with the company told Dow Jones Newswires Thursday (19th July). The move is an about-turn, as India's junior oil minister R.P.N. Singh had said in parliament in May that ONGC Videsh had decided to return Block 128 to Vietnam as exploration there wasn't commercially viable. "ONGC has just received a two-year renewal recently," said Phan Tien Vien, chief of exploration division for Vietnam's state-run Vietnam Oil & Gas Group, or PetroVietnam.

Regional Snapshots

US Pacific chief affirms commitment to Philippines

US Admiral Samuel Locklear met with Philippine President Benigno Aquino and voiced his support in helping modernise the country's ill-equipped armed forces, considered to be among the weakest in the region, the presidential spokesman said. Locklear "reaffirmed the long-standing partnership between the US and the Philippines," Aquino's spokesman Ramon Carandang told reporters. The two officials discussed the South China Sea issue in "broad strokes" with no specific details given, Carandang said. He also warned that a possible "miscalculation" in the dispute could threaten regional stability and reiterated that the US and Philippine militaries needed to learn to work together better.

Singapore, US forces take part in South China Sea exercise

The Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN) and the United States Navy (USN) are taking part in the 18th Singapore-US Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) exercise in the South China Sea from 17 to 27 July 2012. This year's exercise will focus on sharpening conventional maritime capabilities such as anti-air, anti-surface and anti-submarine warfare, as well as maritime air operations. 1,400 personnel from both countries are involved in this year's exercise. The SAF and the USN have conducted the CARAT series of bilateral maritime exercises annually since 1995. Exercise CARAT aims to enhance interoperability and professional cooperation between the participating forces of Singapore and the US.

ASEAN announces six-point principle on East Sea

Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Hor Namhong announced the ASEAN’s six-point principle on the East Sea at a press conference in Phnom Penh, Cambodia  on July 20th. He said ASEAN Foreign Ministers reaffirmed member countries’ commitment to i) The full observation of the Declaration on Conduct of the Parties in the East Sea (DOC); ii) The guidelines for the implementation of DOC; iii). Early conclusion of the Code of Conduct (COC); iv) Absolute respect for universally recognized principles of international law, including the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS); v) Pursuit of self-restraint and renunciation of the threat or the use of force among relevant parties; vi) Peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with international law, including the UNCLOS.

Commentaries & Analyses

Sea of trouble for ASEAN

Last week, the odds against effective action by ASEAN to ward off South China Sea clashes and perhaps to foster real problem-solving by the feuding claimants just got a lot longer. An obvious work-around would be for a subset of ASEAN members, the five or six that are most strongly opposed to the South China Sea's incorporation into greater China, to come forward with their own initiative. Ideally, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei, cheered on by Indonesia and Singapore, would sort out among themselves just what it is they claim and do not claim. By clarifying the legal basis of their maritime claims and separating these from the more difficult but geographically much smaller disputes based on claims to land features, they would be able to present a united front to China on this crucial point. China has relied on assertions that its sailors and fishermen traversed "China's South Sea" in the past, evidently considering that and its growing naval strength to be sufficient argument. Conversely, if the ASEAN states with most at stake can forge a common position anchored in principles of international law, they will have a far more compelling claim to support by others - once again, most notably, by the US.

ASEAN and the South China Sea: Deepening divisions

“The worst-case scenario for the United States, and indeed all stakeholders in the South China Sea, is a serious confrontation in which military force is employed. But frankly I think the chances of that happening are not very high. The best-case scenario is for China and ASEAN to agree on a credible and effective CoC that ameliorates tensions, leads to the implementation of confidence-building measures, and thereby creates an environment conducive to a peaceful resolution. I don’t think the chances of that outcome are very high either. So I think what we will see for the foreseeable future is a continuation of the status quo in the South China Sea: tensions will continue to ebb and flow, the claimants will protest each other’s moves, and ASEAN and China will keep the DoC/CoC process going if only to show that they are doing something. How long the status quo can continue is another matter. I think it has a limited shelf life, though what the post–status quo will look like is impossible to say at this point in time. But it could be very messy.”

Taiwan’s South China Sea plan

Strategically located in the middle of the Spratly island chain in the hotly contested South China Sea, Taiping (Ba Binh) Island is a precious real estate. Besides being the largest feature in the Spratlys, the Taiwan-controlled island is home to one of the only two airstrips in the area that is long enough to accommodate large aircraft such as the Hercules C-130. Taiwan is now reportedly assessing the possibility of adding 300-500m to the 1,150m runway. This follows an announcement in February that Taiwan would build a 7-meter-high tactical air navigation (TACAN) facility on the island to facilitate instrument landing. Taiwan’s careful approach does not mean that the military option for Taiping (Ba Binh) has been written off. Whether Taiwan decides to militarize Taiping Island remains to be seen, but so far the tendency seems to point in that direction. Whatever the government does, Taiping will remain a coveted piece of real estate in the South China Sea; finding a balance between defending it, while not making it too attractive that others want to take it by force, will be key to its fate.

The paradox of China's naval strategy

For China, control over the South China Sea is more than just a practical matter and goes to the center of Beijing's foreign policy dilemma: how to assert its historical maritime claims while maintaining the nonconfrontational foreign policy established by former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in 1980. China's regional and domestic environment has shifted significantly from the early days of Deng's reforms, and China's economic and military expansion has already passed Deng's admonition to hide capabilities and bide time. At least four elements of Deng's policies are currently under debate or changing: a shift from noninterference to creative involvement; a shift from bilateral to multilateral diplomacy; a shift from reactive to preventative diplomacy; and a move away from strict nonalignment toward semi-alliances. In the South China Sea, this would mean clarifying its maritime claims rather than continuing to use the vague nine-dash line. China proposed semi-alliance structure is designed to counter the weakness of its non-alliance policy while not leaving China beholden to its semi-alliance partners. The strategy is less about building an alliance structure against the United States than it is about breaking down the alliance structures that could be built against China by getting closer to traditional U.S. partners, making them less willing to take strong actions against China.

China steps up its tide of influence in South China Sea

Nowhere else in the world is energy security so dependent upon what might lie beneath the sea and upon the control and freedom of it shipping lanes. The failure of the Association of South East Asian Nations annual meeting to produce an agreed statement has highlighted the competing claims made by China and a number of ASEAN members to different parts of the South China Sea. Many are concerned China’s claims reflect a kind of Chinese ‘Monroe Doctrine’. In addition, complicating those claims is international law. Not only do the countries’ various claims compete, but the legal bases upon which they are made are different. Although international law permits innocent navigation through territorial waters, it would not be difficult to imagine that a state might argue that oil tankers and LNG carriers would fall foul of this exception in a crisis. And it’s certainly not difficult to see how a crisis can quickly escalate when oil and gas supplies are threatened.

Indonesia’s South China Sea dilemma: Between neutrality and self-Interest

Indonesia perceives itself as a neutral party and potential mediator in the South China Sea disputes. But with self-interests and geopolitical realities that are now unfolding, this perception may soon become untenable for several reasons. Firstly, Indonesia views with caution Chinese creeping maritime assertiveness, supported by its modernised and capable navy and marine paramilitary units. Secondly, it becomes increasingly difficult for Jakarta to understand, let alone empathize with, Beijing’s viewpoint based upon “historical” jurisdiction which is not supported by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Thirdly, Indonesia differs from China on the process of drafting the Code of Conduct of Parties in the SCS (CoC). Fourthly, unlike China, Indonesia does not oppose the participation of external powers, such as the United States, to discuss the issue in regional forums. Jakarta views such involvement as necessary to maintain a “dynamic equilibrium,” namely to prevent one power (China) from becoming too domineering. Last, but not least, while proclaiming itself a non-claimant state, Jakarta tacitly acknowledges its own interests, some of which may run counter to the Chinese wishes.

South China Sea dispute rocks ASEAN

In one of the most embarrassing moments in its four-decade history, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) ended its annual talks in Cambodia this week without issuing its traditional joint statement due to deep divisions over a South China Sea territorial dispute with China. The unprecedented action underscores the extent to which the long-running maritime dispute has dampened solidarity within the 10-member ASEAN grouping and China’s expanding influence in the region as it flexes its economic and military muscle. But there may still be a silver lining in the ominous cloud over ASEAN’s failure to hammer out its basic document. It “could enhance the prospects for reaching agreement on a COC (code of conduct) because China is less likely to feel that all the ASEAN member states are ganging up against it,” Robert Beckman, director of the Center for International Law at the National University of Singapore, told Bloomberg news agency. “There is still a common view that we must, if anything, reinforce our efforts to work on the COC, to begin our talks with the Chinese on the COC,” Indonesian foreign minister Natalegawa said.

What happens now in the South China Sea?

Although the meltdown of the ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting in Phnom Penh last week seemed like an unmitigated disaster, and already has resulted in a flurry of press coverage blasting the organization, the situation in the South China Sea is not necessarily headed for a steep descent into real conflict. At the same time, though some ASEAN nations like Cambodia are drawing nearer to China, while others such as the Philippines are moving closer to the United States, all ASEAN nations value the organization’s coherence, and realize that Southeast Asian states must generally provide a united front on issues if they are to be treated as a major power in East Asia, and if they hope to be the center of any future Asian regional security architecture. The savviest ASEAN officials realize this, which is why everyone from Indonesia’s foreign minister to the ASEAN Secretary-General has, in the wake of the summit, been engaged in back-and-forth diplomacy among ASEAN members to try to get them to agree to some kind of joint position on the Sea, even if that position is weaker than what the Philippines and Vietnam would have wanted.

Beijing plays divide and conquer to win in South China Sea

China wants to resolve the dispute, but only on its own terms. And that will only be possible once China achieves uncontested regional dominance and the other claimants have no choice but to accede to Chinese terms. Beijing is obviously aware that its strategy, in the short term at least, incurs huge diplomatic costs. To offset these costs, China has tried to gain support from some South-East Asian nations so that the other claimants are not able to forge a regional alliance on this issue to isolate China. Because China has ample economic resources to achieve this goal, it may have already succeeded to a considerable degree.In last week's Asean summit of foreign ministers in Cambodia, the regional bloc was unable to reach a common position on the South China Sea dispute, a clear victory for Beijing. But the Chinese strategy is not without risks. Absent a diplomatic solution, China can only expect confrontations with the Philippines and Vietnam over fishing and natural resource exploration to continue and escalate. In the worst-case scenario, accidents could turn into naval skirmishes. Given China's preference for peace and stability in its neighbourhood, one has to wonder whether Beijing has taken precautions to prevent such crises. We can only hope it has.

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