Weekly Bulletin 16/9-22/9

Activities of the Claimants

China

China takes new step in Sino-US ties

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has called for "sustained political resolve, persistent commitment and tireless efforts" by both China and the US to turn the proposed new model of major-country relations into reality. In a September 20^th speech to the Washington-based think tank Brookings Institution, Wang, on his first official visit to the US since taking office, hailed the consensus reached by Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Barack Obama in June on building a new model of major-country relations as "strategic, constructive and path-breaking." "It has charted the future course for our relations, and will surely produce a positive and profound impact on the Asia-Pacific region and the evolution of the international landscape," Wang said. Wang elaborated on the essential features of the new model as "no conflict or confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation."

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The Philippines

Philippines focuses on code of conduct, arbitration case

The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said on September 17^th that it was shifting its focus to the establishment of a code of conduct in the disputed South China Sea and the arbitration case with China before the international Permanent Court of Arbitration. DFA Spokesman Raul Hernandez said this when asked in a press conference about the planned filing of another diplomatic protest against China for the concrete blocks it placed near Scarborough shoal. He said they are shifting their focus “on the expeditious conclusion of a legally binding code of conduct in the [South China Sea]”. “And also to focus on our preparation of our memorial for the arbitration case with China [before the Arbitral Tribunal],” he said.

Indonesia

Managing South China Sea disputes is 'litmus test' for regional co-operation

Indonesia's foreign minister says Southeast Asia's regional bloc faces a "litmus test" as it seeks to manage disputes in the South China Sea. Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said on September 19^th there's now a "good degree of common understanding" within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations on broad goals for a proposed code of conduct. In an address webcast by the Asia Society, Natalegawa said that until recently some nations viewed the code as a "magic wand" to address core disputes. But he said Indonesia suggested more modest goals: to avoid security incidents, to promote confidence and on how to prevent escalating into full-blown conflict.

The U.S.

US reiterates yet again it is not seeking a military base in PHL

The United States said on September 20^th that it was not seeking a permanent base in the Philippines as the allies expand military cooperation at a time of tension with China. "I want to make a point very clear that the United States is not seeking to create or to reopen any military bases in the Philippines," State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf told reporters. Harf said that the United States was talking with the Philippines about how "to promote security and stability for our nation and in the region."

Regional Snapshots

Vietnam, Japan boosts military cooperation

Vietnamese Minister of National Defence, General Phung Quang Thanh and Japanese defence minister Itsunori Onodera affirmed to do their best to strengthen friendship, mutual trust and understanding between the two armies at their talks in Hanoi on September 16^th. At talks, the two defence ministers also discussed ways to promote defence ties in the coming time. Defence Minister Thanh also asked the Japanese side to help Vietnam with technology and equipment dealing with unexploded ordnance left from wars. The two ministers also shared their views on international and regional issues of mutual concerns. They also agreed to promote defence policy dialogue at senior level and provide training for officers.

Japanese defense minister, Thai premier discuss South China Sea

Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera discussed security issues on September 18^th with Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who doubles as Thailand's defense minister, including simmering disputes in the South China Sea between China and some ASEAN members, a Thai government spokesman said. The spokesman, Theerat Ratanasewi, said both sides expressed hope for concrete progress on the implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, in order to move forward talks on forging a legally binding code of conduct to prevent territorial and maritime disputes from flaring up. Onodera told reporters after the meeting that he hoped to see the problems in the South China Sea resolved in accordance with the rule of law and through dialogue.

US, PH launch war games

The Philippines and the United States launched war games September 18^th at a naval base facing turbulent waters claimed by China, as the allies sought to highlight their expanding military ties. About 2,300 marines from both sides are taking part in the annual exercises which this year are being staged alongside the South China Sea. “Multilateral exercises and agreements are essential in our cooperation and operational readiness as a multi-capable force, ready to defend our country’s sovereignty and integrity,” Philippine Navy vice-commander Rear Admiral Jaime Bernardino said in a speech at the opening of the exercises. The three-week Philippine-US Amphibious Landing Exercises (Phiblex) will involve two US warships, as well as a series of live ground fire exercises and jungle survival training.

Seminar shows shift in regional approach to East Sea issue

The regional seminar on ASEAN and the East Sea in Phnom Penh, which closed on September 20^th, showed a shift in the approach of both ASEAN and China to the East Sea issue, the Vietnamese head delegate to the event said. Dr. Nguyen Hung Son, Deputy Director of the East Sea Institute under the Vietnam Diplomatic Academy, said Chinese delegates no longer asked whether the East Sea is an issue between China and the ASEAN, and whether a Code of Conduct on the East Sea is necessary. Instead, they now focused their attention on the possible impacts on the ASEAN-China strategic partnership if the two sides fail to control the situation on the East Sea , and measures to build such a Code of Conduct. Similarly, ASEAN delegates focused the discussion on measures to enhance the bloc’s common voice and solidarity regarding the East Sea issue, as well as how countries without any claim on the East Sea can contribute to ASEAN’s joint efforts to address this issue.

Commentaries & Analyses

Cooperation Or Trust: What Comes First In The South China Sea?

By Sam Bateman

A ‘Chicken and Egg” situation has emerged in the South China Sea. What comes first – cooperation as a maritime confidence-building measure (MCBM), or strategic trust? This dilemma is largely explained by the reality that the concepts involved means different things to different people. One school of thought is that arrangements for functional cooperation on issues such as resources management, marine scientific research and marine environmental protection are MCBMs or trust-building measures. The other school of thought is that this functional cooperation cannot proceed without strategic trust. A way forward is evident with getting out of this dilemma. While it is possible that part of the current situation may be due to differences of interpretation and understanding with some subtleties of trust and confidence being ‘lost in translation’, there is also a pressing need to get back to basics. Maritime cooperation is an MCBM that helps build trust and confidence. Cooperation on managing the South China Sea and its resources should proceed even as disagreements are negotiated at the political level and the sovereignty disputes remain unresolved.mThe essential requirement to cooperate in managing the South China Sea and its resources should be separated from military CBMs and strategic trust. We should think differently about maritime cooperation as a MCBM on the one hand, and military measures on the other. We should detach cooperation from operational military MCBMs such as arrangements of the incidents at sea (INCSEA) type. These two strands of thinking can be taken forward through different forums. The Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum (EAMF) is appropriate for developing modes of maritime cooperation while the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting–Plus (ADMM-Plus) forum can deal with MCBMs related to military activities.

South China Sea Festers

By Michael Mazza

With all eyes focused on Syria, and reasonably so, the peace that has held in Asia for the past three decades continues to slowly slip away. And while recent developments in the South China Sea, in particular, may seem like par for the course, they point to a less stable future. China-Philippines relations are in apparent free fall. Earlier this month, the Philippines’ defense ministry provided evidence that China is preparing to build a structure on the disputed Scarborough Shoal. Manila recalled its ambassador for consultations. Looking further to the west, the Vietnamese and Chinese foreign ministers have recently reaffirmed their desire to resolve disputes peacefully, but their countries continue to prepare for less optimal outcomes. What’s more, Southeast Asian countries are having problems amongst themselves. Most recently, in late August, Malaysia indicated a split with its fellow South China Sea claimants with respect to their approach towards China. In an interview, the Malaysian defense minister said that “just because you have enemies, doesn’t mean your enemies are my enemies,” and suggested that Chinese patrols of disputed territories do not constitute a notable threat. Moreover, with the United States trying to reassert its own presence in the region—most notably, by negotiating with Manila to establish rotational naval and air presence in the Philippines—Beijing may see value in forging ahead with its South China Sea agenda now. Best to grab what we can, while we can, before the Americans arrive in force, the thinking may go. It has been a busy summer in the South China Sea, and disturbingly so. But as summer turns to fall, scorching temperatures may only give way to even choppier waters.

New nadir for China-Philippine ties

By Richard Javad Heydarian

When China, mainly in reaction to Hagel's push for a 20-year-long rotational military presence in the Philippines, and shortly after his tense exchanges with Chinese officials over rising tensions in the South China Sea, rescinded its invitation to Aquino and subsequently denied that it had earlier sought his presence, it signaled to many analysts a hardening of Beijing's position. The situation was complicated when Filipino officials claimed that Chinese officials made "subsequent concerns and conditions to the President's attendance". The cancellation of Aquino's visit was thus touted by officials as a decision to "stand firm in the defense of the country's national interest". Subsequent reports suggested that Chinese officials made Aquino's visit conditional on the Philippines withdrawing its UNCLOS case at The Hague and pulling out its troops and grounded vessel at the contested Co May Shoal - conditions to which Manila would never agree. The depth of the diplomatic crisis was seen when the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs recalled its top representative to China, Ambassador Erlinda Basilio, for a special consultation over the brewing crisis related to China's decision to apparently lay up to 75 concrete blocks in the Scarborough Shoal's vicinity. Filipino officials fear that China is moving closer to consolidating its hold on the contested feature, similar to how it won control of the Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands after its seizure by Chinese forces in 1995. Regional leaders are now left with little option but to push for a multilateral solution to the deepening territorial tensions at the forthcoming ASEAN Summit in early October. However, any multilateral resolution of the South China Sea disputes will require a parallel improvement in bilateral relations between the Philippines and China, of which there is currently few, if any, signs.

The American Role in Asia's Territorial Disputes

By Robert Menendez

What can the U.S. do to maintain peace and stability in the region and to help the parties involved manage and resolve maritime disputes? First, it is essential that all parties exercise self-restraint. The use of coercion, threats or force to assert disputed claims in the region must be renounced as unacceptable. This principle was recognized in the 2002 Asean-China Declaration of Conduct. The U.S. must continue to support Asean in its efforts to make meaningful progress toward finalizing a comprehensive new Code of Conduct to establish rules of the road and clear procedures for addressing disagreements. Second, American leadership matters profoundly in Asia, and the U.S. should support efforts by parties in the region to develop appropriate crisis-management mechanisms so that any unintended engagement by military or paramilitary forces in this region does not spiral out of control. The recent establishment of a "hotline" between China and Vietnam is a welcome step in the right direction. Third, the U.S. should redouble efforts to work with states of the Asia-Pacific region to develop a functional problem-solving architecture that can support the resolution of disputes through collaborative diplomatic processes consistent with recognized principles of international law. We may not be part of the Asean-China discussions, but we can and should support their efforts to create a collaborative diplomatic mechanism to help manage maritime disputes as part of this larger effort. Fourth, the U.S. can play a significant role in bolstering the region's maritime security capacity, including maritime domain awareness. Initiatives such as developing common coordination mechanisms, operating procedures, maritime domain awareness, and capacity-building efforts for maritime police are examples of the sort of partnership that the U.S. can offer. Fifth, the U.S. should continue to be clear that we will stand by our allies and our treaty commitments. The U.S. must continue to demonstrate our enduring commitment to the region. As an Asia-Pacific nation, the United States has a vital interest in working with all nations in the region in developing, institutionalizing and sustaining a rules-based order for the Asia-Pacific. That starts with putting in place effective mechanisms to manage maritime disputes that threaten to pull the region apart, and supporting and encouraging the peaceful resolution of disputes in the Asia-Pacific maritime domain. A binding China-Asean Code of Conduct would be a significant step in the right direction to help build the stable, peaceful and prosperous Asia-Pacific that all the nations of the region want and need.