Weekly Bulletin (14 January - 20 January)

Activities of the Claimants

China

China to strengthen combat readiness

The General Staff Headquarters of the People's Liberation Army has pledged to stage more military drills that simulate real combat, urging commanders and soldiers to strengthen their readiness for possible war, the PLA Daily reported. In a directive on military training in 2013, the headquarters said the PLA is determined to improve its combat capability by holding more military exercises to mock real situations on the battlefield, according to the report. All servicemen and servicewomen should always bear in mind the awareness of war and the sense of crisis, the directive said.

China sends maritime patrol vessel 'Haixun 21' to “Sansha”

China's marine patrol ship "Haixun 21" has set sail from Haikou on its first voyage and is headed to the waters around the so-called “Sansha” city.  "Haixun 21" is on its maiden voyage. It will pass by Phu Lam Island before eventually returning to the port in Sanya. The voyage will cover a total of about 600 nautical miles. Zhang Jie, Spokesman of Hainan Maritime Bureau, said, "The main task of this voyage is to test the vessel’s navigation and beacon systems, as well as check on other Chinese fishing boats operating in these waters. All these factors will affect the vessel’s safety."

Chinese shipbuilder secures major contract for patrol vessels

Wuchang Shipbuilding Industry Company Ltd signed a 2.5-billion-yuan contract ($397 million) in Beijing to build nine patrol vessels for the country's marine patrol force, china.org.cn reported. The nine ships are five 3,000-ton vessels and four 5,000-ton vessels, and their design will be based on Haijian 50, a 3,000-ton ship for the China Marine Surveillance fleet, and Haixun 01, a 5,000-ton ship for the China Maritime Safety Administration force. The report did not elaborate on where the nine ships will be handed over when completed.

Chinese surveillance ships patrolling South China Sea

Two fleets of Chinese marine surveillance ships are carrying out separate regular patrol missions simultaneously on the South China Sea, the State Oceanic Administration (SOA) said. Haijian 84 and Haijian 74 left Guangzhou port on Monday (January 14^th) and arrived at the waters south to the Paracel Islands, an administration statement said, adding that they would continue patrolling to the south. The second mission also started, as Haijian 262 and 263 left Sanya to patrol on the waters near the Beibu Gulf.

Vietnam

Viet Nam demands China immediately cancel the wrongful activities

In response to questions from the media regarding Viet Nam’s reaction to China’s recent activities conducted in the East Sea (South China Sea), Foreign Spokesman Luong Thanh Nghi on January 14 stated that: ”Those activities seriously infringe upon the sovereignty, sovereign rights and national jurisdiction of Viet Nam in the East Sea and over Hoang Sa and Truong Sa archipelagos and further complicate the situation in the East Sea. They also run counter to the spirit of the Declaration on Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) and are not conducive to peace and stability in the region as well as to the Viet Nam - China relations. Viet Nam resolutely opposes and demands China immediately cancel those wrongful activities.”

Vietnam sovereignty documents on display

An exhibition showcasing newly-discovered documents relating to Vietnam’s sovereignty over Hoang Sa (Paracel) archipelago opened in the central city of Da Nang on January 20^th. The exhibition, the largest of its kind to date, includes 125 collections of maps, three atlases and 102 books published in Western countries during the 18 th and 19 th centuries. The documents, originally in English, German, French, Spanish, Italian and Dutch, and translated into Vietnamese, affirm Vietnam ’s sovereignty over Hoang Sa and Truong Sa archipelagoes.

The Philippines

Philippines concerns about Chinese new map

Philippine government has ordered the Foreign Affairs Department to verify reports that China published new maps that included the disputed territories in the South China sea, a presidential spokesperson said. “We are aware of the reports released by Chinese media, which is why the Department of Foreign Affairs will be asking our embassy in Beijing to verify that particular report before we make any further comment,” Philippine Deputy Spokesperson Abigail Valte said. The new maps, published by China’s national map publisher SinoMaps Press, will be available to the public by the end of January, according to Xinhua, China’s official press agency.

Philippines open to joint oil development of Reed Bank

Philippine President Aquino is open to the idea of a Chinese company joining an oil and gas exploration in Reed Bank in the South China Sea but says it has to comply with Philippine laws. “We’re talking about Recto Bank here. We can’t split Recto Bank (Reed Bank) with them. Recto Bank is ours. If they want to join, why not? We’re open to investors but they should comply with our laws,” Mr. Aquino said in a dialogue with Radio Mindanao Network reporters. “We believe in our own laws, that there should be dispute resolution. It should be clear that [what] we’re getting into is ours and we will respect what is theirs,” he added.

Philpipines backs Brunei's code of conduct for disputed seas

The Philippines' Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) expressed its support for Brunei's move to pursue a code of conduct among claimants to the South China Sea as the sultanate assumed the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations this January. Assistant Secretary Raul Hernandez, the DFA spokesman, described the Philippines' stance as "hopeful" about the prospects for negotiations among natiobns with conflicting claims to the territories, specifically China.

Philippines to build a “credible defense posture”

Philippine Armed Forces chief Lt. Gen. Emmanuel Bautista vowed to provide a “credible defense posture” for the 125,000-strong military force to be able to address external threats while supporting a peaceful and diplomatic resolution of territorial issues. “We need to upgrade our joint and combined operations capabilities to be able to contain any external threats,” said Bautista, Aquino’s fourth military chief.

Philex Pet keen on having CNOOC as partner to develop Reed Bank        

(Philex Pet) is keen on pursuing a partnership with China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) to explore and develop gas-rich Reed Bank, Philex Petroleum chairman Manuel V. Pangilinan said, noting that any outcome would depend on what Beijing would say. US companies were also interested in the South China Sea project, but no real progress have evolved out of the  talks with the Americans, Pangilinan told local and foreign reporters at a forum organized by the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines (FOCAP).

Brunei

Brunei to seek South China Sea code of conduct

Brunei will pursue a binding code of conduct among competing South China Sea claimants as a top priority during its ASEAN chairmanship, officials said. The tiny, oil-rich sultanate has assumed the chair of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for 2013 at a time when tension over sweeping Chinese claims to the sea have rattled the region. "Brunei sees this as a key threat to regional security and would like to resolve the issue through dialogue with all claimants, including China," said a foreign ministry official, who declined to be named.

Brunei to raise South China Sea issue at ADMM-6

The South China Sea disputes will not overshadow talks at the forthcoming ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting (ADMM) in Brunei. Instead, discussions between the leaders are expected to focus on measures aimed at defusing tensions among disputants in the territorial row, the Bruneian deputy defence minister said in an interview with The Brunei Times. "What's important for defence ministers is ... to see what measures can be undertaken to prevent the situation from escalating," Dato Paduka Hj Mustappa Hj Sirat said.

Singapore

Singaporean Foreign Minister: No immediate solution for South China Sea dispute

Singaporean Foreign Affairs Minister K Shanmugam believes the issues of sovereignty surrounding the South China Sea dispute are not likely to be resolved in the near future. The approach, he said, is to put that on the backburner and agree on a way in which countries can relate and co-operate with one another, as that would preserve peace. One way, he said, is through encouraging the countries claiming territories in the South China Sea to agree to a code of conduct that everyone can be a party to.

Indonesia

Indonesia seeks better climate for resolving maritime rows in Asia

Indonesia wants to help create an climate conducive to peaceful resolution of territorial disputes between China and Japan in the East China Sea and among several countries in the South China Sea, Indonesia Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said in an interview ahead of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's visit here. Speaking to Japanese media organizations, Natalegawa said that while the disputes in the two seas must be resolved by the parties concerned, "Our region has a responsibility to create climate conducive for this resolution to take place." "This means providing norms and rules and providing encouragement for countries to avoid dangerous activities that may cause incidents in the area," he said. "Countries must be assured that if they are responsible, if they are exercising restraint, they are not going to be disadvantaged."

Thailand

Thailand seeks talks on South China Sea

Sihasak Phuangketkaew, permanent secretary at the Thailand Foreign Ministry, said that as a coordinator of Asean-China relations, Thailand will seek a common Asean position on the disputed waters for the bloc's talks on the issue with China. Thailand also plans to hold separate talks with each of the countries that lay claim to disputed areas, as attempts to resolve the conflicts in larger meetings failed last year.

Japan

Japan's Abe nudges China over territorial disputes

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, pointing a finger at China, said that disputes plaguing Asia over who owns strings of tiny island groups in the region, had to be resolved legally. He also listed five principles of his Asean diplomacy, including an “open ocean, ruled not by power but by law ... and we and Asean will protect this with all our might”, he said.

Regional Snapshots

India wants to further defence ties with Vietnam

India wants to further boost defence and security ties with Vietnam, which it considers an important element in its Look East policy. Indian Vice President Hamid Ansari made this remarks when talking with the press on January 14^th before leaving India for an official visit to Vietnam, which is scheduled for January 15^th. He said the two countries have worked closely in the defence and security fields and India will do its best to support Vietnam in such fields as hi-tech capacity building and other programmes.

Vietnam, Japan agree to closer multifaceted links

Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung on January 16^th held talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who arrived in Hanoi earlier on the same day for a two-day official visit. Dung hailed Abe’s first foreign trip to Vietnam since he took office, and spoke highly of his efforts to lift the two countries’ ties to a strategic partnership for peace and prosperity in Asia. The two PMs discussed measures and orientations to bring the bilateral friendship and cooperation to a new height, including the exchange of high-ranking leaders, closer cooperation among ministries and departments, as well as promoting the roles of dialogue mechanisms between the two sides.

US Chevron, China's CNOOC sign production-sharing contracts

US Chevron Corp said it entered into production-sharing contracts with Chinese offshore oil company CNOOC Ltd for two exploration blocks in South China Sea as the U.S. oil company looks to grow in the Asia-Pacific region. Chevron China Energy Co will hold a 100 percent interest in blocks 15/10 and 15/28 in the Pearl River Mouth Basin. The unit will operate the two shallow water blocks, which in total cover an area of about 2,233 square miles (5,782 square km).

Japan, U.S. fighter planes conduct joint drill

U.S. and Japanese fighter jets on January 15^th carried out joint air exercises, an official said, days after Chinese and Japanese military planes shadowed each other near disputed islands in the East China Sea. The five-day exercise involves six U.S. FA-18 fighters and around 90 American personnel, along with four Japanese F-4 jets and an unspecified number of people, the official said.

India-China military officials hold Annual Defence Dialogue

Top defence officials of India and China began two-day fifth Annual Defence Dialogue here to discuss a host of issues concerning the bilateral military ties including resumption of joint exercises this year. The talks were being held between the tri-service Indian delegation headed by Defence Secretary Shashikant Sharma and Deputy Chief of Staff of People's Liberation Army (PLA) Lt Gen Qi Jianghuo, according to Indian officials here.

Commentaries & Analyses

In Disputes Over Asian Seas, Winner May Take Zilch

By Robert A. Manning

It may be Asia’s 21st century equivalent of the assassination of Austria’s  Archduke Ferdinand that sparked World War I. Growing tensions over territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas threaten to disrupt the oft-heralded Asian Century. Whatever the outcome, many see more than just competing nationalisms, the scars of national memory and the rise of an increasingly assertive China behind clashing interests. To many, this is about oil: a widely-shared perception that beneath these disputed waters lays a treasure trove of oil and gas able to satisfy energy needs of dynamic Asian economies. Unfortunately, there is no basis for this conventional wisdom. At the end of the day, the web of overlapping territorial claims in Asia is unlikely to produce an energy bonanza for anyone. It’s a case of “winner take little.” Unless the region can find a way to resolve or at least manage the underlying nationalist passions that drive what are otherwise minor disputes over largely uninhabited islets and shoals, the oft-heralded Asian Century will be shortlived.  

US, China set for a year of surprises

By Brendan O'Reilly

The United States and China have completed their respective leadership transitions. Now the two powers can begin developing their ever-transforming relationship in an atmosphere of (relative) domestic political stability. Last year brought about important changes to the Sino-American dynamic - most notably the US's much-heralded "pivot" to Asia. The Chinese leadership is increasingly vocal regarding perceived US interference in China's strategic front yard. The major trends in the relationship will continue in 2013, although there are some potentially destabilizing developments afoot. There are deepening general tensions in the world's most important bilateral relationship. The US military "pivot" towards Asia, and American backing for Japan in the territorial dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands are causing serious and open strains. Compounding these new sources of tension is a longest-standing disagreement over American weapons sales to the government of Taiwan. The stage is set for a period of increasing - and increasingly open - confrontation between the United States and China in 2013. The confrontational political rhetoric between the United States and the People's Republic of China is increasingly reflected in the opinion of the common people in both countries. According to the Pew Global Attitudes Project, only 43% of Chinese people view the US favorably - down from 58%. 2012 brought the US "pivot" towards Asia and an unexpected escalation of the long-standing territorial dispute in the East China Sea. 2013 may hold yet more policy surprises. Both powers may be preoccupied with domestic concerns, but as China continues its rush to overtake the United States as the world's largest economy, expect the unexpected.

South China Sea 2013: Betting on the American Horse

By Khanh Vu Duc

Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia as well as other Southeast Asian nations, in equal agreement regarding their concern of China's increasing assertiveness, see the US pivot as an effort to balance against Chinese expansionism. Although it is fairly true that the pivot is in response to China's rise, it is questionable whether the US has any plans to engage head on with China. During the third presidential debate last year between President Obama and Governor Romney, the President remarked that China was both an adversary and a potential partner. The language used should be clear indication enough. Although the US and China continue to regard the other with suspicion, they remain too interdependent to sever ties. Knowing this, can any of the aforementioned Asean countries expect the US to be in its corner when push comes to shove? If a deal between Washington and Beijing could be a struck, a compromise in which both parties receive what they desire, what reason is there for the US to engage in conflict with China? If the China can be made an agreeable partner, it could prove a far more capable partner than Asean altogether. The difficulty for many Southeast Asian nations, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, looking to balance against China's expansionism is not what the US will do, but whether they (the countries anticipating a US pivot to the region) can go against China alone. The obvious answer, of course, is no. Unable to go against China alone, these countries must therefore throw their support behind the US, regardless of their confidence in Washington. What the US can promise and whether the US can fulfill its promises are secondary to these countries' immediate concerns, which is China's assertiveness. They view in America an opposing force to this assertiveness, and as such may find that there is little in the way of choice when it comes to picking a side.

Japan's rebalancing strategies with sea

By Kavi Chongkittavorn

In just three weeks, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has sharpened Japan's long-standing ties with Southeast Asia after being returned as leader of the world's third largest economy. His scheduled visits to Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia, were preceded by Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso's high profile trip to Myanmar and Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida to the Philippines, Singapore and Brunei. These shuttles demonstrated Japan's diplomatic resurgence as never before seen in a region that over the past four decades has become so used to the ippon-style docile approach, focusing on economy and development. Although the Abe government will continue to concentrate on its economic assets, strategic elements will now form part and parcel of the new approach. Japan is rebalancing its relations with the ten Southeast Asian countries and at the same time attempting to identify and set priorities over key strategic partners. As the pattern of high-level visits to the region this month revealed, Japan singled out Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines as the four heavyweights - followed by Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei and the remaining countries with the exception of Myanmar. Japan's rebalancing diplomacy comes at the time when Asean is facing humongous challenges in maintaining its centrality vis-a-vis external pressures and growing interests. It remains to be seen whether Japan can bring to fruition its diplomatic awakening, given continued volatile domestic politics and constraints. After all, the region's security landscape in the 21st century is not preordained or monopolised by any hegemonic power.

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