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Activities of the Claimants

China

Taiwan to stage live-fire drill on disputed islands

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Taiwanese coastguards said Sunday (12th August) they will next month stage a live-fire exercise in disputed South China Sea islands with new, longer-range artillery and mortars. Taiwan's drill will take place on Ba Binh Island in the Spratlys.

Chinese state-run media:”Attempts to alienate China and ASEAN doomed to fail”

Chinese state-run media Xinhua on August 13th said that Beijing supports a more integrated ASEAN and any deliberate attempt to smear China's positive role in maintaining the unity of the regional bloc is doomed to failure. This article also accused Western media of stoking mistrust and enmity between China and its close neighbors and is hoping for a break-up of the 45-year cooperative mechanism. In addition, Xinhua highlighted that for ASEAN members and China, the South China Sea should become a spot that ties the region together, not one that pulls it apart.

The Philippines

Philippines still sees China “as a friend”

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The Philippines still sees China as a friend despite the two countries' dispute over certain areas in the South China Sea, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario said Tuesday (August 14th). "We look at China as a friend. We look at China as a neighbor. We look at China as a partner. The South China Sea is not the sum total of our relationship [with China]. We should in fact [separate] the contentious issues from the [country's] bilateral agenda” del Rosario said during a budget hearing at the Philippine Senate. Del Rosario added that although the dispute remains unsettled, they still hope to come up with a "peaceful resolution." He explained that the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs is pushing a three-track approach: the political approach of utilizing the ASEAN and the country's international partners; the legal approach of pursuing a dispute settlement mechanism under the UNCLOS; and the diplomatic approach of bilateral consultations with China.

New Cambodian Ambassador appointed to Philippines

Cambodia has nominated a new ambassador to the Philippines, following a diplomatic row over the failed Asean security meeting in July and Cambodia’s positions on the South China Sea. The former ambassador, Hos Sreythoun, was recalled to Cambodia Aug. 6, despite calls from the Philippines government to answer for statements he made in the media criticizing the Philippines for helping derail the Asean meeting.

Vietnam

Vietnam Marine Police receives first patrol aircraft

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The Vietnam Marine Police received the first CASA-212-400 marine patrol aircraft on August 16th at an airport of the Regiment 918 of the Air Defence and Air Force Arm with participation of Lieutenant-General Pham Duc Linh, General Director of the Vietnam Marine Police Force and representatives of other relevant agencies. CASA-212-400 is the fourth-generation multi-functioned military transporter of C212 aircraft with 16.1m in length, 6.5m in height and a 20.2m-wingspan which can perform at speed of 360kph and operate in a distance of 1,800km.

Singapore

Singapore urges ASEAN and China to start talk on COC

Singapore’s Foreign Affairs Minister, K Shanmugam, said ASEAN's failure to issue a joint statement over how to deal with claims on disputed territories in the South China Sea reflects disunity within the grouping. In addition, he said that the ASEAN statement on "Six-Point Principles on the South China Sea" released on July 20th has gone some way to repair the damage to ASEAN's credibility, but more work needs to be done. To maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea, he said ASEAN and all major powers need to work closely with China to promote cooperation and manage tensions in the area  as well as ASEAN and China should start talks on a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea soon.

Malaysia

Malaysia urges Asean to unite over South China Sea issue

Malaysia's foreign minister urged Southeast Asian countries on Sunday (August 12th) to settle their overlapping claims in the South China Sea before bringing them up with Beijing. Mr Anifah said a repeat of confrontation, such as a June standoff between Philippine and Chinese ships over Scarborough Shoal, should be avoided. "We are confident we can resolve this matter. China is also earnest in its desire in finding solutions... This issue can be settled through peaceful means," he told reporters.

The US

America warns over the conspiracy of “divide and conquer” in the South China Sea

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On South China Sea issue, Spokeperson of the U.S. Department of State Victoria Nuland said:“An effort to divide and conquer and end up with a competitive situation among the different claimants is not going to get where we need to go. So, if this bilateral diplomacy is supportive of an overall regional arrangement that results in a code of conduct everybody can live with, then that’ll be a good thing. But if, in fact, it’s an effort to end up in a place where people are – where there’s more tension between the stakeholders, then that’s not going to work.”

Regional Snapshots

Malaysia, China held talks on South China Sea issue

The two sides agreed that any territorial dispute or conflict in the South China Sea should be resolved peacefully via discussions. Malaysian Foreign minister Datuk Seri Anifah Aman said both countries stressed the importance of diplomacy, especially countries involved, to engaged in dialogues to resolves issues, so as to ensure peace in the region.

The US, Japan discussing missile-defense ship upgrades

The United States and Japan are discussing system upgrades for a pair of Japanese destroyers to boost defenses against a ballistic missile attack, an executive at the Pentagon’s top contractor said Wednesday. The potential multimillion-dollar updates to two Atago-class guided-missile destroyers would provide cutting-edge Aegis ballistic missile defenses equivalent to those being added to U.S. Navy ships, said Nick Bucci, who heads such maritime programs at Lockheed Martin Corp.

US missile destroyer to dock in Manila

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The USS Milius, a guided missile destroyer, will arrive at the Manila South Harbor on August 18th for a routine call and four-day goodwill visit. “The ship’s visit highlights the strong historic, community and military connections between the United States and the Republic of the Philippines,” the statement from the US Embassy in Manila said

Commentaries & Analyses

“ASEAN in crisis”

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Some people now question the very survival of ASEAN. The cause of the furore is the widening division in the ten-member grouping over China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea. The division was laid bare publicly at a meeting last month of ASEAN foreign ministers in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh. For the first time in its history ASEAN failed to issue a joint communiqué. Meanwhile, a mood of gloom pervades preparations for the next full ASEAN summit, due in November. This time round, the countries should be able to agree on a common position for public consumption, avoiding another unseemly row. At the moment ASEAN is run on a shoestring. Its members pay paltry sums to keep it pottering along, on the assumption that it would never have to do much. Now, however, some Indonesian policymakers argue that, with the whole notion of regional unity at stake, it is time to beef up the organisation and provide it with the mechanisms, money and manpower needed to argue more forcefully for regional interests. For as Ms Anwar puts it, “if the member countries don’t care enough about ASEAN, why should other powers defer to it?”

China politics, oil needs risk conflict in South China Sea

By Flavia Krause-Jackson and Daniel Ten Kate

China’s assertiveness over a vast stretch of sea has grown in lockstep with its economic clout as it overtook the U.S. to be “There is no advantage for China to back down or enter negotiations,” said Andrew Nathan, a scholar of Chinese politics and foreign policy at Columbia University in New York. “China won’t calm down, and the current posture reflects a long-established strategy to reassert its claims steadily over time without ceding an inch.” On the US engagement, “The Chinese tend to react in very visceral fashion, and that does not always go down well,” said Jonathan D. Pollack, an Asian and Pacific Studies specialist at the Brookings Institution in Washington, in a telephone interview. “Any time they see a U.S. role in anything, they will lash out.” “The U.S. is unlikely to get involved directly, as that would alter a long-standing policy of maintaining neutrality in territorial disputes and complicate its broader relationship with China,” said Taylor Fravel, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “However, the U.S. is likely to speak out when it believes that trends are challenging regional stability or the principle of freedom of navigation.”

Asean at 45, reform or become irrelevant

There have been some informal discussions among officials and academics about the need to come up with the rule of procedure to guide a rotating chair in the future. At the moment, there are no clear rules concerning the Asean chair and its relations with other Asean organs and how the Asean Secretary General and its staff can be of assistance. The Asean foreign ministers took things for granted that they would be able to form a consensus on any issue, albeit disagreements, as in the past four decades. But the Phnom Penh incident changed all that. More importantly, there must be a review of the position of Secretary General and the Secretariat for the benefit of coordination and cross-sectoral cooperation. As a rule based organization, Asean needs to review the charter and undertake further bold reform efforts. Brunei, the Asean chair next year, must seize the initiative now. Without these reforms, Asean will be plagued with growing national interests depleting the common Asean interests which will further weakening Asean as a whole.

South China Sea: New Arena of Sino-Indian Rivalry

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While the world focuses on the rising tension between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, Beijing and Delhi are also engaged in a quiet struggle in the contested waters. By putting up for international bidding the same oil block that India had obtained from Vietnam for exploration, China has thrown down a gauntlet. By deciding to stay put in the assigned block, India  has indicated it’s ready to take up the Chinese challenge. Like other major powers, India is concerned about China’s challenge to the free access to the waters of the South China Sea. Meanwhile, China has been doing its best to roil the waters in the South China Sea. India has so far been a passive observer amidst growing maritime tensions and territorial claims in the region. But now after expanding its footprints in the South China Sea, New Delhi must come to terms with China’s regional prowess. The challenge for New Delhi is to match strategic ambition realistically with appropriate resources and capabilities.

U.S. is right to assail China on its South China Sea claims

The United States is neutral on the territorial claims in the South China Sea. But the State Department’s statement was intended to push back against China’s recent harrying of the Philippines and Vietnam over disputed fishing and oil drilling rights. The U.S. statement called for resolving disputes peacefully. China saw it, quite accurately, as a challenge on behalf of the weaker states in the region and insisted the United States “respect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” China has insisted that it will work out the disputes one by one, and the United States should stay away. But the State Department’s statement accurately asserted that the United States has a “national interest” in the region: not territorial, but to protect regional stability and the huge volume of international shipping that passes through the sea. The sea is clearly a flashpoint. Everyone needs to make sure it does not become a sea of hostility.

China escalates brinkmanship to dangerous levels

The South China Sea dispute between China and its South East Asian neighbours  which has been festering for decades assumed conflictual contours since 2008-2009 after China declared it as a ‘core interest’ for China, and on which it would be ready to go to war to defend its self-proclaimed sovereignty. China’s disruptive strategies in the South China Sea region has now transcended onto a bigger strategic canvass, namely to checkmate the United States and assume the dominant role in Asia. China’s timing of escalated brinkmanship in the last few months is significant, especially as it goes against the grain of any strategic logic. China is always credited by the global strategic community as having strategic patience, long range strategic vision and that China is evolving into a responsible stakeholder in global affairs. But in the present process of China’s escalated brinkmanship on the South China Sea conflict these ingredients are visibly absent. The ASEAN grouping as an organisation had all along been trying to involve China for a dialogue on the South China Sea conflict but without success. China all along resisted that the dispute dialogue be a subject of multilateral discussions. The United States needs to see through the diabolical ‘Salami-Slicing Strategy” being practised by China in the South China Sea and effectively checkmate China before China prompts a United States exit from Asia Pacific.

The Pivot and Its Discontents

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Management of policy toward East Asia, especially China, has been a major accomplishment of the Obama administration. But despite the initial hurrahs, last year’s prominent announcement of a “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific region was unnecessary and possibly counterproductive. The relatively diminishing economic influence of the United States has led to a Chinese belief that Washington now is trying to undermine Beijing’s regional policies to offset its own decline. Chinese and American sentiments will, of course, continue to be bruised by the contradictions of economic relations under any strategic approach. Many assert that it is important to make clear to China that the United States will confront its misbehavior, so Beijing understands that its rising military power will be met and U.S. primacy in the region preserved. Finding the right balance between assertiveness in the face of a rising China and not feeding Chinese nationalism or reinforcing PLA demands will not be easy. The pivot is in fact explicitly directed at China, and repercussions will not be short term. It will encourage China’s military growth and add to the nationalist streak that runs through it. The United States will remain a major player in the Pacific. The most important uncertainties in East Asia relate to what happens in China’s politics and how Beijing deals with its burgeoning economic challenges. The U.S. should stop beating its breasts about remaining a Pacific power.

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