Weekly Bulletin 13/1-19/1

Activities of the Claimants

China

Ocean watchdog builds more patrol ships

China’s ocean watchdog is accelerating construction of 20 coastal patrol ships this year with a new purchasing plan for large and advanced patrol planes and ships underway, Liu Cigui, director of the State Oceanic Administration, said on January 16^th. China is beefing up its maritime law enforcement capacity with its personnel expected to increase to 16,300 in the recently-established China Maritime Police Bureau, according to the SOA’s restructure plan unveiled in July.

China calls on Manila to meet it halfway on fishing rules

China called on the Philippines on January 17^th to meet it halfway on new Chinese fishing rules in the disputed South China Sea, adding that Beijing was always willing to make efforts to resolve such issues via talks. "China's will to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and integrity is unwavering. At the same time, we always put forth efforts to resolve the relevant issue through dialogue and consultations," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said.

China building second aircraft carrier

China is building its second aircraft carrier, which is expected to take six years, and the country aims to have at least four such ships, Chinese and Hong Kong media reports said on January 19^th. After two decades of double-digit increases in the military budget, China's admirals plan to develop a full blue-water navy capable of defending growing economic interests as well as disputed territory in the South and East China Seas. 

Vietnam

Russia hands over the second submarine to Vietnam

Interfax-AVN news agency cited the Russian shipbuilding industry group as saying that the second diesel - electric submarine named Ho Chi Minh was transferred to Vietnam on January 16.The submarine was built by the Admiralty Verfi Shipyards under the Union Shipbuilding Corporation (USC). The source said the check-before-acceptance report signing ceremony was held on January 16^th. The first submarine named Hanoi was handed over to Vietnam on November 7, 2013. It arrived at the port of Cam Ranh in Khanh Hoa province, Vietnam on December 31, 2013. On January 8, it made the first journey to the sea. These are the submarines of the 3rd generation. According to a contract signed between Vietnam and Russia, Russia will build six Kilo submarines for the Vietnam Navy.

The Philippines

Philippines won’t recognize China fisheries law

The Philippines will not recognize the fisheries law implemented by China in the waters off Hainan province, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said on January 14^th. “We don’t recognize it, that’s why we are protesting about its declaration and implementation,” DFA spokesman Raul Hernandez said when asked for a categorical response by media regarding Hainan’s new law. “This law being a Hainan law covers not only their maritime zone but also the maritime zones of other coastal states including the Philippines particularly our 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ),” Hernandez said.

Ignore China's fishing rules, Philippines military chief tells fishermen

Philippine military chief General Emmanuel Bautista told local fishermen to ignore China's new fishing rules requiring foreigners to seek its permission to fish in the disputed South China Sea. "We will ignore the fisheries law of China.... Our fishermen should go on fishing. They should go on with their lives," Bautista told reporters on January 15^th, during a visit to this province. "Should we give in to threats, intimidation, terror, violence of any armed group? We should stand up for our rights," Bautista added. Bautista also announced the Philippines want to acquire 2 more navy ships from treaty ally US to boost its maritime protection. He said at least 6 frigates are needed to effectively guard the country's long coastline. "Within the last year, we realized that there is a real threat out there in terms of securing, defending our territory," Bautista said. In addition,Philippine military plans to add 20.000 troops in the next 3 years.

Troops ready to secure Pinoy fishermen amid China rules

The Philippine government is ready to provide security escort to Filipino fishermen who will operate in the South China Sea as it continues to ignore China’s new fishing policy in the disputed area. Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin said the Philippines would disregard the rules set by China, which has been shoring up its presence in the region. “We have the capability to secure them (fishermen). As said before, we will not follow their rules in our own territory,” Gazmin told reporters Thursday on the sidelines of the anniversary of the Special Operations Command. “Why do we have to secure permission from other countries when they do not own our fishing grounds?” he added.

Philippines to China: No halfway meet, 'join us in arbitration' over disputed territories

The Philippines has rejected China's proposal for the two countries to meet halfway on new Chinese fishing rules in the disputed South China Sea and instead reiterated its challenge to China to “join us in arbitration” on issues related to the latter’s insistence on claiming “undisputed sovereignty" over the South China Sea. “The Hainan fisheries law is only one of the unilateral measures by China to force a change in the regional status quo in order to advance its nine-dash line position of undisputed sovereignty over nearly the entire South China Sea. The nine-dash line claim is in gross violation of international law. It is the core issue that must be singularly and fully addressed. To this end, we reiterate our invitation to China to join us in arbitration as we intend to proceed with or without China for a final disposition,” said Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Raul Hernandez in a text message sent to reporters January 18^th.

Myanmar

Myanmar-China ties to help on South China Sea issue

Myanmar’s close relationship with China will be an advantage in helping to find solutions to territorial disputes in the South China Sea, says presidential spokesman U Ye Htut. “China and Myanmar have had a good neighborly relationship for many years; it is not a hindrance but an advantage in the case of the South China Sea,” U Ye Htut told reporters in Bagan on January 16 ahead of meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers the next day.

Japan

Japan to lodge protest with China over fishing rules in South China Sea

Japan plans to lodge a protest soon with China over new fishing rules Beijing has imposed on disputed waters in the South China Sea, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said January 17^th. Kishida said the government will continue to seek more details through diplomatic channels about the area targeted by the restrictions imposed by China's southern Hainan Province. "If it affects freedom of navigation in the waters, we need to send a clear message to China in cooperation with other countries," Kishida told reporters.

The U.S.

US lawmakers urge tough stance on China sea claims

The United States must not tolerate China's use of military coercion in pursuit of its territorial claims in the seas of East Asia, lawmakers said at a hearing January 14^th. Experts warned that Beijing's assertiveness is unnerving its neighbors and challenges American security interests. Republican Rep. Steve Chabot of Ohio called China "dangerously aggressive" and said it was attempting to take disputed territories by gradual force with the "misguided hope that Japan, Southeast Asian nations and the U.S. will just grudgingly accept it." Calling for a strong, bipartisan message from Congress, Democratic Rep. Ami Bera of California said that China's "threatening and provocative moves to assert their maritime territorial claims are unacceptable." Republican Rep. Randy Forbes of Virginia said the U.S. must be "100 percent intolerant of China's territorial claims and its continued resort to forms of military coercion to alter the status quo in the region."

US presses sea code of conduct

The United States on January 14^th stressed the need for freedom of navigation as it renewed its call for a maritime code of conduct between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China after Beijing announced it would impose fishing restrictions in disputed waters. US Ambassador to the Philippines Philip Goldberg reiterated Washington’s expression of concern over China’s unilateral declaration that it would impose fishing restrictions. “It’s not done in consultation with other countries. It’s not done in the context of the Code of Conduct which we have urged ASEAN and China to develop,” Goldberg told The STAR as he called for “rules-based” kinds of activities to ease tension in the South China Sea.

Chinese inexperience a factor in warships' near-miss: U.S. admiral

Chinese operational inexperience and communications difficulties on both sides contributed to a near-collision between the USS Cowpens and a Chinese warship in the South China Sea last month, the head of U.S. forces in the Asia-Pacific said on January 15^th. "I believe that there was ... a lack of experience on some of their smaller ships and I think we have to understand that for now," Locklear told the Surface Navy Association during a question and answer session at its national symposium.

Regional Snapshots

Japan 'wants to work with Asean to engage US in Asia'

Speaking at the Conference themed “Asia's Prosperity and the Importance of Open Seas” on January 16^th, Minister of State for Ocean Policy and Territorial Integrity of Japan, Ichita Yamamoto said that Japan and Asean should work closely to engage the United States in Asia as the American presence is vital to preserving the rule of law in Asian waters. "To promote prosperity in the region, we need the US, which has the will and the capability, to preserve the rule of law," said Mr Yamamoto.

Myanmar commences role as ASEAN Chair; hosts Foreign Ministers Meeting in Bagan

Myanmar’s Union Minister for Foreign Affairs, U Wunna Maung chaired the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Retreat today in Bagan. The Retreat is the first in the series of ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meetings under Myanmar's ASEAN Chairmanship in 2014 which has for its theme "Moving forward in Unity to a Peaceful and Prosperous Community." During the Retreat, ASEAN Foreign Ministers discussed the priorities of ASEAN for 2014. The issues include ASEAN's efforts to speed up community building and ASEAN integration and to move forward the realisation of Master Plan for ASEAN Community. The Foreign Ministers also expressed their concerns on the recent developments in the South China Sea. They further reaffirmed ASEAN's Six-Point Principles on the South China Sea and the importance of maintaining peace and stability, maritime security, freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea.

Commentaries & Analyses

China Escalates Fishing Disputes in the South China Sea

By Carl Thayer

On November 29^th, 2013, six days after China’s Ministry of National Defense announced the establishment of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea, Hainan province quietly issued new regulations on fishing in the South China Sea. These regulations were announced on December 3 and came into force on January 1, 2014. This latest action has the potential to undermine scheduled talks between ASEAN and Chinese officials on a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (held within the framework of a working group to implement the 2002 Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea). Furthermore, it sets China on a collision course with Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, as fishermen from these countries regularly ply the waters included in the regulation. At the same time, the provincial authorities could be selective in enforcing the rules by, for example, targeting Filipino fishermen operating within the area where China’s nine-dash line overlaps with the Philippines’ EEZ as retribution to Manila for taking Beijing to a UN tribunal over its South China Sea claims. The regulations also fly in the face of understandings reached between China and Vietnam last year during Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to Hanoi. The two countries agreed to establish a hot line between their agricultural ministries to deal with fishing incidents. Beijing even hailed the visit as a breakthrough in relations because both sides agreed to set up three joint working groups to map out areas of maritime cooperation. The latest move by the Hainan government is an indication that China will continue to use a purported “legal basis” to justify its rough-handling of foreign fishermen in the region’s disputed waters. The issuing of these regulations has the effect of forcing foreign governments to respond to the legal basis for Chinese claims, thus inadvertently playing into Chinese hands by having to recognize the existence of its claim to the South China Sea.

Fishing rules row may push China to clarify its South China Sea claims

By Mark Valencia

The ambiguity of China's claims in the South China Sea has long been the main obstacle to resolving or even managing the jurisdictional disputes there. Despite of repeated requests from rival claimants, as well as the US, China has declined to clarify exactly what it claims and why. Its infamous nine-dash line encompassing most of the South China Sea is open to several interpretations. However, the recent "revision" of Hainan's fisheries regulations, which became effective on January 1, may have brought us closer to a clarification of China's claims. China is now facing a political dilemma of its own making. If it clarifies that the law applies to much of the South China Sea and tries to enforce it, Beijing will have "crossed the Rubicon" vis-à-vis other claimants and users of the sea. If it continues its ambiguity, other nations will ignore the regulations and Chinese nationalists will claim it appears to be a "paper tiger" incapable of enforcing its own law. Domestic pressure will build for it to do so. This seems a no-win situation. To escape this conundrum, China could clarify that it claims only the disputed islands and their exclusive economic zones, and that boundaries in the South China Sea should be negotiated. Meanwhile, it should refrain from enforcing the rules beyond its own claimed exclusive economic zone and especially in other countries' claimed zones. To do otherwise is almost certain to court conflict.

What If China Did Invade Thi Tu Island?

By Carl Thayer

In the midst of the furor over Hainan province’s new fishing regulations covering nearly sixty percent of the South China Sea, an unnamed Chinese writer penned an article in the Chinese-language publication Qianzhan (Prospects) arguing that China would recover Zhongye Island by force during 2014 as part of a long-term naval expansion plan. China could easily achieve strategic surprise and seize Thi Tu Island. China could disguise an invasion force as a flotilla engaged in routine naval exercises in the South China Sea. However, the political fallout from seizing Thi Tu would be a huge set back for Chinese diplomacy. ASEAN would likely adopt an uncompromising political position and demand the immediate withdrawal of Chinese forces. ASEAN would receive political backing from the international community. Chinese aggression could even be raised at the United Nation; but China would veto any discussion by the Security Council. China’s actions in seizing Thi Tu Island would set off a race by claimant states to beef up the defense of their islands. This would likely include increased combat air patrols, anti-shipping exercises, and the deployment of conventional submarines. Several of the larger islands could be expected to house anti-ship cruise missiles. It is regrettable that Qianzhan’s conflict scenario, like so much commentary churned out by retired Chinese military officers and ultranationalists, does not go beyond the bravado of acclaiming a swift Chinese victory to consider the costs of such action to China’s international standing, damage to its economy, and the risks of escalating military conflict. Many other Chinese writers and analysts argue in support of China’s peaceful rise and support President Xi Jinping’s initiative for a China-ASEAN Treaty of Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation. These writers and analysts should criticize the hawkish views by retired military commentators and ultranationalist writers for being counterproductive to China’s longer-term interests. The Philippines is to be congratulated for not rising to the bait. Official spokesmen declined to comment on an article they claimed was unofficial and unverified. Chinese media have already denied the veracity of the report.

China casts red tape in South China Sea

By Richard Javad Heydarian

China forayed into 2014 by signaling its intent to consolidate contested territorial claims in the South China Sea. Authorities in the southern Chinese province of Hainan introduced an amended maritime regulation that requires foreign fishing-related vessels to secure the permission of local authorities before entering China's claimed maritime jurisdiction. China's new maritime regulation comes against the backdrop of rising territorial tensions, fueled in large part by Beijing's late-November decision to impose an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, which covers territories claimed by both South Korea (leodo/Suyan rock) and Japan (Senkaku/Diaoyu islands). Washington and its allies swiftly challenged the new measure by conducting military exercises in the area while prodding China against interrupting the freedom of flight in the region.  This was followed by Japan's vigorous efforts to rally regional support against China. In an indirect criticism of China's ADIZ, Tokyo and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) expressed their common concern over "freedom of over-flight and civil aviation safety" during the ASEAN-Japan Summit in mid-December.  For Southeast Asian states such as the Philippines and Vietnam, the bigger concern was and is China's possible imposition of an ADIZ in the South China Sea. Against this backdrop, the latest maritime regulation in Hainan may be viewed as a fallback option for China - in the tentative absence of an ADIZ for the area - to embolden its territorial claims across the Western Pacific and respond to US-led efforts to contain its regional influence.  China's latest maritime regulation does not immediately portend a dramatic escalation in the South China Sea, given the uncertainties over the actual nature and intensity of its enforcement. But it serves as a symbolic gesture of China's continued efforts to flex its military might in the region, regardless of the potential diplomatic and strategic fallout.