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Activities of the Claimants

China

Chinese Defense Minister visits the US

Visiting Chinese Defense Minister Chang Wanquan is expected to hold talk with the US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel in the Pentagon on August 19th. Pentagon spokesman Steve Warren said the visit will help sustain the positive momentum that has been achieved in the U.S.-China military relationship over the past 18 months since the then Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping visited the US in January. This is also an opportunity for both countries’ leaders to discuss military issues, including network security, as well as regional and global issues.

The Philippines

Philippines not concerned of China reaction to US-Phl base deal talks

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Malacañang seems to be not concerned that the proposal of an "increased rotational presence" of American troops in the country could agitate China amid the ongoing territorial dispute over the South China Sea. Philippine Presidential Spokesperson Edwin Lacierda said the Palace welcomes the start of negotiations between the United States and the Philippines, saying the American military presence in the country would not only help in "minimum credible defense" but also in humanitarian disaster response operations. And when asked if the Palace is confident that the move will not further agitate China, Lacierda said: "That is their concern, not ours."

‘United Asean will try to convince China on sea code of conduct’

Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said ministers of the 10-member bloc have agreed to collectively encourage China to sit down and discuss the long-delayed completion of the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea, legally binding guidelines that would govern the disputed waters. “With solidarity and in speaking with one voice, Asean has taken the position that it will urge China to agree to an expeditious conclusion of the COC,” said Del Rosario in a text message on August 17th.

India

India launches first locally-built aircraft carrier

ndia launched its first indigenous aircraft carrier yesterday, beating China to join an elite group of military powers that can design and build such massive warships. Only the United States, Russia, Britain and France have the capability to build carriers of 40,000 tonnes and above. China operates a retrofitted carrier of Russian origin, and is still working on its first home-built carriers. "We must continue the process of developing indigenous capability to secure our maritime interests," Defence Minister A.K. Antony said after his wife, Elizabeth, launched the 37,500 tonne INS Vikrant down the slipway into the water at a shipyard in Kochi, southern India. Additional fittings will take its tonnage to 40,000.

Regional Snapshots

PACOM Hosts US-Vietnam Bilateral Defense Dialogue

U.S. Pacific Command hosted members of the Vietnam Ministry of National Defense for a bilateral defense dialogue at PACOM headquarters on August 15th. The dialogue this year is the 10th in the series and participants from both delegations recognized the dynamic and growing complexity of regional and international security challenges and underscored the important accomplishment of past defense cooperation between the U.S. and Vietnam.  Topics include maritime security, search and rescue, peacekeeping operations, humanitarian assistance and disaster response, and other cooperative engagement activities.

Philippines, US start military talks

The opening round of talks between the Philippines and the United States for an agreement on increased US military presence in the country took almost six hours on August 14th. The talks, which began shortly before 9:30 a.m. and ended at 3:30 p.m., were held at the Edsa Room of the Department of National Defense  building at Camp Aguinaldo, which had been used by former President Fidel Ramos, the then head of the Philippine Constabulary, and Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile, the then defense secretary, during the crucial four days of the first People Power Revolution of 1986. Defense undersecretary Honorio Azcueta stressed the significance of the venue when he welcomed the US and Philippine panels.

ASEAN vows unity on South China Sea

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Southeast Asian nations on August 14th vowed unity in pressing China to accept a binding code of conduct for handling disputes in the South China Sea, the Thai foreign ministry said. Foreign ministers from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) agreed "to speak in one voice" while seeking an "early conclusion of a code of conduct", a foreign ministry spokesman told AFP, without giving a timeframe. The ministers, who held a two-day informal meeting in Thailand's Hua Hin resort town, will meet Chinese officials in Beijing at the end of the month. "ASEAN will have to speak with one voice and be unified. This does not mean speaking against anyone... ASEAN is united so it's easy to discuss and talk with it," the spokesman added.

Commentaries & Analyses

Manila, Tokyo brothers in arms

By Julius Cesar I Trajano

While the Philippines and Japan have plenty of economic reasons for closer ties, a mutual desire to counterbalance China has widened the scope of bilateral relations. First established in 2011, the Japan-Philippines strategic partnership initially aimed to facilitate the exchange of goods, services, people and investment through the implementation of the Japan-Philippines Economic Partnership Agreement. However, since the start of Abe's second term late last year (he previously held the office in 2006-7), maritime security cooperation has become a dominant feature of the budding relationship. Stronger maritime cooperation with Japan is part and parcel of the Philippines' broader strategy of enhancing cooperation with allies to help compensate for its limited military capability and rising maritime insecurity. In a recent bilateral talk with Japanese Prime Minister Abe, Philippine President Aquino did not raise the Japanese invasion of the Philippines and even suggested that the Philippines has moved on from its historic conflict with Japan. His government earlier stated that it would staunchly back a re-armed Japan shorn of its pacifist constitution to help counterbalance China in the Asia-Pacific. The convergence of geo-strategic and economic interests has helped both countries overcome the bitter memories of the past and build a dynamic new strategic partnership. Since the end of World War II, the two countries have grown closer due to robust economic ties and more recently as brothers in arms against China's perceived threat to their security and interests.

A political maelstrom in the South China Sea

By Mark Valencia

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Over the past few years, the Philippines and China have engaged in a series of increasingly dangerous incidents stemming from their conflicting claims in the South China Sea. On Jan 22nd, a potential watershed date in the politics of the South China Sea, the Philippines, with tacit U.S. support, filed a complaint against China with the Law of the Sea’s dispute settlement mechanism — the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea based in Hamburg, Germany. Despite China’s refusal to participate, the process is continuing and an arbitration panel has been appointed and convened. However, this is one of those “slippery” situations and — with sympathy for the arbiters — international politics will play a role — whether they like it or not. Indeed they are at the center of a political maelstrom. Already one of the initial arbiters — a very distinguished and experienced international figure as well as a law of the sea expert — withdrew because “his wife is a Filipina.” There are several possible outcomes of the arbitration — each with its own consequences. First the arbitration panel must decide if it has jurisdiction to hear the case. If the panel decides it does not have jurisdiction, realists will crow that “international law is the arms of politics,” and that international law is shaped and works in favor of the big powers. More importantly the Southeast Asian claimants — including besides the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Vietnam — will be resigned to negotiating their overlapping claims with an ever increasingly powerful and intimidating China. And — like the Philippines — they will most likely take political and even military measures to protect themselves — like drawing ever closer to the U.S. On the other hand, if the panel decides it does have jurisdiction and goes on to rule against China’s 9-dashed line claim, it could be committing institutional suicide. China will not abide by the ruling, legal and political uncertainty will reign in the South China Sea, and violent incidents there are likely to proliferate. The authority and legitimacy of the dispute settlement mechanism and even the Law of the Sea itself will be undermined. Thus the panel is “damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t.” In such a situation, the more likely outcome is a mixed result. The panel may decide it has jurisdiction and then suggest a compromise recognizing that China has “historic title” to a share of the resources in the disputed area but that it must share them with the Philippines (and by implication, the other claimants). The betting is on this option — or a similar compromise. But this of course all depends on the “arbiters.” If they insist on “legal purity” — such as “all or nothing” they may choose the first or second option — and like Samson bring the temple down upon themselves.

Reaffirming India’s South China Sea Credentials

By Chietigj Bajpaee

India is the world’s fifth-largest navy with plans to build a 160-plus-ship navy, comprising three aircraft carrier battle groups by 2022. However, India’s maritime ambitions are being challenged by the fact that the country’s maritime position is often regarded as contested. Take, for instance, the South China Sea: although almost 55 per cent of India’s trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, some countries continue to oppose allowing it to play a prominent role. This was evidenced by reports in July 2011 that an Indian Navy vessel received radio contact from the Chinese Navy demanding that it depart disputed waters in the South China Sea after completing a port call in Vietnam. This was followed by the less belligerent but nonetheless provocative gesture of an Indian naval vessel receiving a Chinese naval escort while on its way from the Philippines to South Korea in June 2012. While not as vocal as the United States, which declared maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea a “national interest” in 2010, New Delhi has nonetheless echoed the U.S. position of calling for a peaceful resolution and continued freedom of navigation. Beyond accessing offshore energy resources and ensuring the safe passage of its vessels through the Strait of Malacca, India also has broader interests in the South China Sea: ensuring that China’s increasingly assertive position over maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea China is not repeated in the Indian Ocean. Notably, recent events in the South China Sea could be a harbinger of China’s potential behavior in the Indian Ocean, especially if China elevates the protection of sea-lines of communication to a “core interest” (hexin liyi) on par with its sovereignty interests in resolving maritime and continental territorial disputes and reunification with Taiwan. An expanded maritime role for India is prudent if it is to defend its growing maritime interests amid the country’s emergence as a major trading and resource-consuming power. As evidenced by its maritime behavior in the South China Sea, India’s strategic significance in East Asia will be increasingly contingent on its ability to play a constructive maritime role in the region.