Weekly Bulletin (11th June – 17th June)

The Law of the Sea Convention is one avenue toward peacefully resolving competing maritime claims that could otherwise lead to conflict, the leader of U.S. Pacific Command, Navy Adm. Samuel J. Locklear III spoke to Pentagon reporters following his testimony as part of a military panel addressing the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the Law of the Sea Convention. “There are a number of countries in the world -- I think China being one of them -- who from our perspective place excessive claims and excessive restrictions that are not consistent with international [law] and aren't consistent with Law of the Sea,” he stated.

Vietnam

Vietnam to propose oil, gas development with Japan

Vietnam's state oil and gas group PetroVietnam plans to invite Japanese firms to join it in the joint development of about 20 oil and gas blocks in the South China Sea, the Nikkei business daily said on Wednesday (13th June). PetroVietnam will hold a briefing session for Japanese firms in early July, the unsourced report stated. Japanese firms will also be given a chance to invest in infrastructure projects, including oil refineries and coal-fired power plants, totalling $24.8 billion, it said.

Others

Spain to hold map exhibit in Manila showing disputed Panatag Shoal

China has modernized its military in tandem with its economic growth. It has committed itself to significant military spending, endeavouring to catch up to the West’s technological prowess by building advanced precision-guided munitions, anti-satellite and cyber-warfare capabilities. In response to China’s strengthening naval capabilities, the Pentagon, which faces cuts of $485 billion over the next decade, has begun a major “pivot” of its strategic priorities. China may, indeed, be seeking chiefly to secure its territory and safeguard sea-lanes for the transport of energy and other natural resources from the Middle East and Africa. Or it may be hardening its economic and territorial claims over the entire South China Sea. In any event, one thing is already becoming clearer—that China’s mounting assertiveness and PACOM’s mandate to reassert itself in the Asia Pacific are setting the stage for a possible new Cold War.

Firepower bristles in South China Sea as rivalries harden

By David Lague

In the early years of China's rise to economic and military prowess, the guiding principle for its government was Deng Xiaoping's maxim: "Hide Your Strength, Bide Your Time." Now, more than three decades after paramount leader Deng launched his reforms, that policy has seemingly lapsed or simply become unworkable as China's military muscle becomes too expansive to conceal and its ambitions too pressing to postpone. The current row with Southeast Asian nations over territorial claims in the energy-rich South China Sea is a prime manifestation of this change, especially the standoff with the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal. As China also continues to modernize its navy at breakneck speed, a growing sense of unease over Beijing's long-term ambitions has galvanized the exact response Deng was anxious to avoid, regional security experts say."In recent years, because of the tensions and disputes in the South China Sea, most regional states in Southeast Asia seem to welcome and support U.S. strategic rebalancing in the region," said Li Mingjiang, an assistant professor and China security policy expert at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University.

US-Indonesian relations: A balancing act 

By Daniel Bodirsky

With increased Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea and a re-posturing of U.S. focus towards East Asia, the most powerful Southeast Asian state finds itself at a crossroads as it seeks to balance long-standing relations with the U.S. and the growing importance of its relationship with China. Indonesia’s short-term strategic interests are based on carefully balancing its relationships with the United States and China. While its neighbours ratchet up anti-Chinese rhetoric over miniscule islands, Jakarta has chosen to follow a path of moderation. As an emerging middle-tier power, Indonesia cannot afford to sacrifice its deepening economic ties with China in favour of a stronger relationship with the U.S., as many of the other states in the region have already done. Thus, Indonesia will likely continue to pursue the middle-ground in conducting its relations in the near future.

Taiwan circling South China Sea bait

By Jens Kastner

With mainland China and Taiwan clinging to all but identical territorial claims,  Beijing has invited the Taiwanese to have a big share of the energy cake believed to be at the doorsteps of both sides. It has offered Taipei a chance to jointly explore resource-rich waters in the South China Sea at the expense of other claimants. But while economically the bait seems too good to resist for Taiwan, an island barren not only of natural gas and oil fields but also diplomatic clout, its government under President Ma Ying-jeou will be wary of touching this political hot potato. 

Pivoting toward the South China Sea?

By Dereck Bolton

The highly publicized dispute between China and the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal in recent weeks has become yet another reminder of the ongoing tensions in the South China Sea. The United States has pledged to monitor the situation, and for the time it would appear the Philippines and China have backed down from allowing the conflict to escalate. But the recent row highlights some of the difficulty the United States will face as it seeks to reengage itself in the region.  The United States must be careful not to go beyond the bounds of regional forums at the risk of alienating China. Washington must focus on helping ASEAN and other countries help themselves in establishing their own security.

Avoiding a U.S.-China War

By Anatol Lieven