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Activities of the Claimants

China

Chinese surveillance vessels harrassed two Vietnamese ships

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Two Vietnamese fishing ships, registered as QNg96417TS and QNg96382TS, faced  China Marine Surveillance fleet in the South China Sea around Hoang Sa islands (Paracel islands) on March 13th. After 3 hours being harrassed by Chinese Hajian 83and Haijan 263, Vietnamese ships left the waters.

China Marine Surveillance leaves the South China Sea

A China Marine Surveillance detachment accomplished an airborne and seaborne patrol of the Paracel islands in the South China Sea ahead of schedule on March 14th. Surveillance ships and helicopters arrived at the port of Sanya in south China's Hainan Province at 4:15 p.m.

New president Xi tells China military to improve battle ability

China’s new president Xi Jinping told the country’s military to improve its ability to “win battles” in his first speech as head of state, as Beijing is embroiled in a bitter territorial row with Japan. The People’s Liberation Army is the world’s largest standing military and Xi told China’s parliament that all forces needed to strengthen their capacity to “win battles and… firmly protect national sovereignty and security”.

Taiwan strengthening patrols over territorial waters

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The head of Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration said on March 11th that his agency will improve communications with China in handling cross-Taiwan Strait crimes and will also increase its patrols of the South China Sea, the East China Sea. To effectively prevent cross-strait criminal activities, the administration will continue to work with China's law enforcement agencies to exchange information, Coast Guard chief Wang Jinn-Wang said at a legislative session. As for Taiwan's defensive strength, Wang said 40-millimeter guns and 120 mm mortars were deployed on Ba Binh Island.

The U.S.

U.S. to cooperate with Brunei on the South China Sea issue

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Speaking before the meeting with Bruneian Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah at Washington DC, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said: ”We’re (the U.S.) very, very much looking forward to working with you on issues with the South China Sea, and issues of energy and climate change.” He also regards the Brunei’s important job of being the president of the ASEAN meeting this year.

U.S. Intelligence Agency: China is likely to maintain the foreign policy of assertiveness on maritime disputes

In the annual review on the worldwide threat submitted to Senate Intelligence Committee, Director of the U.S. National Intelligence James Clapper said that because of confronting the domestic challenges, China is likely to maintain uncompromising positions on foreign policy issues, especially those involving maritime and territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas. He also added that Beijing’s regional activities appear to be, in part, a response to the US strategic rebalance toward Asia-Pacific, which Chinese leaders believe is aimed at undermining China’s position in the region. Regarding military developments, he said that China is supplementing its more advanced military capabilities by bolstering maritime law enforcement activities in support of its territorial claims in the South and East China Seas.

Obama to raise maritime issues at Asia summits

On March 12th, U.S. President Obama had a meeting with Brunei's Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah in the Oval Office, White House. On the South China Sea issue, U.S. President Barack Obama pledged to bring up maritime disputes boiling between China and its neighbors at the US-ASEAN and East Asia summits in Brunei in October. Brunei has already said that it will pursue a binding code of conduct among competing claimants in the South China Sea during its ASEAN chairmanship this year. China insists disputes are a bilateral matter between individual nations. "We will be discussing maritime issues," Obama said.

Regional Snapshots

Singapore and Bruneian Navies Conduct Bilateral Exercise

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The Republic of Singapore Navy and the Royal Brunei Navy are conducting a bilateral naval exercise, codenamed Exercise Pelican, from March 11th – 15th 2013. Hosted by the RSN, this year's exercise marks the 32nd in the series. During the exercise, the two navies will be conducting a series of tactical discussions and simulation exercises in naval warfare such as anti-surface, anti-submarine, anti-air and maritime air operations.

Singaporean Foreign Minister to visit the U.S.

Minister for Foreign Affairs and Minister for Law of Singapore K Shanmugam will visit Washington DC, the U.S., from March 12th – 15th 2013. Minister Shanmugam and Secretary Kerry and Attorney General Holder will discuss ways to broaden and deepen bilateral cooperation further.  This will include joint training programmes for Southeast Asian countries through the Singapore-US Third Country Training Programme (TCTP).  Discussions are also expected to cover regional and international developments, particularly the US’ continued strong engagement of Asia, the ASEAN-US relationship, and the ongoing negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement.

South China Sea conference at the U.S.

Asia Society and the Centre on Asia and Globalization at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore jointly hosted a two-day conference from March 13th-15th, 2013 on the unfolding situation in the South China Sea area and its implications for regional peace and stability. The conference themed as “Ticking Time Bomb? Finding a Resolution to the South China Sea Dispute” has 5 different panels, namely: 1- Origins of the Disputes, 2- The U.S.-China Relationship in the South China Sea, 3- Roles of International Law and Governance, 4- ASEAN's Position on the South China Sea and Implication for Regional Peace and Security, 5- Finding a Way Toward Cooperation: Lessons and Suggestions.

Japan seeks defence ties with ASEAN

On March 13th, at the closed-door vice-minister level meeting of representatives from Japan and the 10-member ASEAN, Japanese Vice Defence Minister Akinori Eto said: “The Asia-Pacific region has various issues concerning security and defence... including territorial conflicts in the South China Sea, on top of the growing maturity of our economic cooperation, Japan and ASEAN need to further strengthen ties in the field of security and defence.” “Under the new regime, we want to reinforce cooperation in security and defence with ASEAN countries and contribute to peace in the region,” he added.

U.S., Philippine soldiers to join Balikatan 2013

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About 8,000 Filipino and American soldiers will take part in this year’s Balikatan exercise from April 5th to 17th. The 29th Balikatan involving other allies in the region will be held in Camp O’Donnell and Crow Valley in Tarlac, Subic Bay, and Fort Magsaysay in Nueva Ecija. Armed Forces of the Philippines spokesman Col. Arnulfo Burgos Jr. said Balikatan 2013 will focus on humanitarian assistance and disaster response to enable the government to develop emergency management mechanisms.

Singaporean naval ship visits Vietnam

The Singaporean naval ship “RSS Endurance 207”, with 220 crew members on board, docked in HCM City Port on March 15th, starting its five-day visit to HCM City. The visit of “RSS Endurance 207” to HCM City will help boost the friendly ties between Vietnam and Singapore in general and the two navies in particular, and celebrate the 40th anniversary of diplomatic ties between the two countries. “RSS Endurance 207” is among the most advanced landing ships of the Singaporean Navy. This 141m-long ship with a displacement of 6,000 ton is built by the Singaporean Navy itself.

Commentaries & Analyses

Dragons unite

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In his final policy address before retiring, China’s then leader Hu Jintao said last November that the country should build itself up as a “maritime power”. His successor, Xi Jinping, who took over the last of Mr Hu’s remaining titles on March 14th, appears eager to make this happen. On the same day China’s legislature approved steps to turn competing civilian agencies into a unified coastguard. Countries nearby may have mixed feelings. Bringing most of the agencies into one ministry should make it easier for the central government to oversee its strategy of sending non-military vessels to fly the flag in disputed areas, thereby supposedly reducing the risk of conflict. Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt of the International Crisis Group, a think-tank, sees a possible benefit in the merger. Better oversight, she says, might mean fewer provocations by ill-controlled Chinese law-enforcement vessels. And a simpler structure could also open up new possibilities for coastguards of other countries to co-operate with China, an endeavour hitherto hindered by China’s bureaucratic maze. But the reorganisation does not appear to indicate any change in China’s more assertive approach to maritime territorial issues. On March 12th a senior mapping official from the nascent coastguard’s ministry said China planned to send a surveying team at “an appropriate time” to land on the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. This would be a serious escalation. Officials from both sides have so far avoided setting foot on the uninhabited rocks. A commentary on a government website said merging the agencies would not mean stripping them of their powers. They would become, it said, an unstoppable dragon, “full of strength from head to tail”.

Navigating US-China Relations: Complicated by China’s “Unrelenting Strategy”

By Jenny Lin

Wonder why the Chinese government, especially the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has appeared more aggressive, self-confident, and assertive in dealing with the US and its allies? The answer could lie in an ancient Chinese strategy called the “unrelenting strategy” – a part of the “thirty-six political military strategies” derived from the I Ching. This “unrelenting strategy” first calls for China to confuse its opponent’s judgments; second, create and induce internal political conflicts within its opponent; and third, deepen the opponent’s existing internal conflicts before launching an offensive attack. This growing economic and military strength underpins Beijing’s perception that China has ascended to great power status and met the preconditions for implementing the “unrelenting strategy.” Step one in the “unrelenting strategy” can now be  implemented, which is to confuse the opponent’s judgments. Washington has been consistently surprised by the PLA’s rapid development, a phenomenon that is compounded by the tendency of policy makers to take Chinese public statements at face value without fully understanding CCP thinking. Step two in the “unrelenting strategy” seeks to induce the opponent’s internal political conflicts. This is evident in the divisions between the US business and security communities. In the context of the Asia-Pacific security environment, step three – “launching an offensive attack” – is Beijing’s long-term strategy and aims at eliminating Washington’s influence. Given CCP/PLA behavior and its “unrelenting strategy,” it is unlikely that the US and China can foster a constructive relationship without the CCP abandoning its strategic intent to reduce US influence in the Asia Pacific.

What comes next?

By Peter A. Dutton

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Despite China’s recent rejection of the international arbitration process, the Sino-Philippine row is far from over. First, China still has an opportunity to change its position and litigate the issues, or at least to litigate whether the Arbitral Panel has jurisdiction over any of the Philippine claims. Although such a change may be unlikely, doing so would reassure China’s increasingly anxious neighbors that it is committed to institutional rather than powerbased resolution of disputes. China’s second option – and perhaps the most likely – is to continue to refrain from participating and to hope for a favorable outcome. If China loses the case, it could declare the process void and ignore its results. Failing to participate and especially ignoring an adverse verdict, however, would convince China’s neighbors that China does not intend to play by international rules. Third, China may believe its best option is to try to isolate and coerce the Philippines into dropping the arbitration. This too may backfire by increasing international disapproval, which has already reached considerable levels. Additionally, it may be ineffective in the end, since the Philippines learned during the Scarborough Reef incident that it is less economically and politically exposed to Chinese pressure than some other regional states. Finally, given the risks and ramifications of each of these options, Beijing may decide to engage in quiet negotiations with Manila to withdraw the case. Doing so, however, would require the Chinese to give the Philippines something meaningful, such as renewed access to Scarborough Reef, assurances that Philippine oil and gas development can proceed without harassment and a pledge that negotiations on a final outcome will continue in good faith. However, such  negotiations can only be successful if the Philippines acts as a discreet and reasonable negotiating partner. If Beijing chooses this fourth approach, and if Manila engages in quiet diplomacy, then there is some hope that a productive accommodation can be reached. In that event, international litigation will have served President Aquino’s purpose to find “a peaceful and rules-based resolution of disputes … in accordance with international law.”

The Rebalance to Asia: Why South Asia Matters

By Vikram Nehru

America’s rebalancing strategy must extend to South Asia if it is to succeed, says Vikram Nehru, a senior associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment. In testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, he outlines how Asia’s economic integration is spreading west, why America’s interests in the Indo-Pacific have never been greater, and what steps Washington can take to enhance its position in the region. He gave out some following policy recommendations. First, engage China on common concerns: Washington should work closely with Beijing on food safety, a multilateral investment treaty, reforming international financial institutions, and cybersecurity to lay the foundation for resolving larger, more contentious issues. Second, deepen relations with India: The United States should consider India a cornerstone in its strategy toward the Indo-Pacific and deepen relations with New Delhi by exporting shale gas to enhance India’s energy security; responding positively to India’s military modernization needs; and simplifying visa requirements to boost India’s exports of services. Third, strengthen engagement with Southeast Asia: Using the U.S.-Indonesia comprehensive partnership as a model, Washington should expand bilateral relations with Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Myanmar and strengthen ASEAN’s implementation capacity. Fourth, advance trade and investment liberalization in Asia: The United States should push to bring negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, as well as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, to a successful close. Nehru concludes, “The Indo-Pacific region incorporating East Asia and South Asia—driven by the unrelenting logic of markets and geography—has the potential to become the world’s economic powerhouse. Its peaceful rise should be a core objective of American foreign policy.”

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