Weekly Bulletin 11/11 - 17/11

Activities of the Claimants

China

China Prepares to Open Its First Deep-Water Gas Project

China is set to start the pumps at its first deep-water natural-gas project, an engineering feat using a Chinese-made platform designed to withstand typhoons and using hundreds of miles of undersea pipelines. The field is part of Beijing's effort to more than double its use of gas to 10% of China's energy mix by 2020, helping to wean the country off the dirtier coal that produces two-thirds of its electricity.

Hong Kong activists halted ahead of 'fishing' trip to Spratlys

Activists were barred on November 13^th from leaving Hong Kong waters on what they called a "fishing" boat trip to disputed islands, more than a year after sailing to another contested chain to assert China's sovereignty. "The Marine Department and police forcefully towed the boat to a police facility," a statement from the group said late November 13^th. The 13-strong group had planned to make what it termed a fishing trip to the Spratly Islands, but did not rule out sailing to other Chinese-administered areas. In August last year, the same group of nationalist activists used the fishing boat to land on disputed islands in the East China Sea known as the Senkakus in Japan and as the Diaoyus in China.

Vietnam

Vietnamese new Deputy PM talks about protecting maritime sovereignty

After being approved by the National Assembly to the post of Deputy Prime Minister on November 13^th, Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh answered reporters to share his responsibilities in the new post: “Our diplomatic policies must contribute to maintaining peace and stability in the East Sea. Vietnam together with ASEAN member nations are abiding by the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the East Sea (DOC) and working towards formulating a Code of Conduct in the East Sea (COC) with China”.

New decree on Vietnam’s maritime zones issued

A new government decree has prescribed fines of between 800 million VND (38,000 USD) and 1 billion VND (47,000 USD) for violations of Vietnam ’s territorial waters, islands and continental shelf for tourism purposes. The government has just issued Decree 162/2013/ND-CP on sanctioning administrative violations in the sea areas, islands and continental shelf of Vietnam , which will officially take effect on January 1^st, 2014 , and replace Decree 137/2004/ND-CP issued in 2004.

Indian Navy gets INS Vikramaditya

The long-delayed and much-awaited $2.3 billion aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya was on November 16^th inducted into the Indian Navy in a strategic boost to India's maritime warfare capabilities. The mammoth 44,500-tonne warship was commissioned into the Indian Navy at the Sevmash Shipyard in this northern Arctic port at a handing over ceremony attended by defence minister AK Antony and Russian deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin and senior government and naval officials of the two countries.

Regional Snapshots

China calls for strategic, comprehensive China-Russia-India cooperation

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said on November 10^th that China, Russia and India should regard and push forward the trilateral cooperation from a strategic and comprehensive point of view, during a meeting of the three countries' foreign ministers. He suggested that the three countries should focus their cooperation on three aspects: firstly, increasing strategic trust among them and regarding each other as true strategic partner rather than rival. Secondly, coordinating in major international affairs to safeguard their own interests and promoting democratization of international relations as well as the construction of a multipolar world. Thirdly, deepening and strengthening pragmatic cooperation and playing a major role in building the Silk Route Economic Corridor and Asia-European Continental Bridge.

Vietnam – Russia to boost strategic partnership

Russian President Vladimir Putin on November 12^th paid a one-day state visit to Vietnam at the invitation of Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang. During the meeting, the two sides stressed the continued strengthening of the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. They also affirmed the sound upgrade of the Vietnam-Russia strategic partnership to a comprehensive level, which opens up new practical opportunities to foster mutually beneficial cooperation in various fields.

China, Vietnam agree on mechanism, framework of working group for consultation on joint maritime development

China and Vietnam have agreed on the mechanism and framework of a working group for consultation on joint maritime development at a meeting held on November 14^th. Yi Xianliang, deputy director-general of the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs under Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Tran Duy Hai, deputy head of the National Border Committee under Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs attended the working session. The meeting is to implement the consensus on China-Vietnam joint development at sea reached during Chinese Premier Li Keqiang 's visit to Vietnam in October 2013, and prepare for the upcoming plenary meeting of Chinese and Vietnamese government delegations on border negotiation. After the meeting, the two sides reached consensus on the issue of the mechanism and framework of the working group for consultation on joint maritime development, and other related issues.

The 5th International Workshop on the South China Sea

The Diplomacy Academy of Vietnam and the Vietnam Lawyers’ Association jointly held an international seminar on the East Sea in Hanoi on November 11^th – 12^th. The event, the fifth of its kind, brings together more than 200 delegates, including government officials, scholars, and experts from ASEAN member countries, China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Australia, the U.S…. Themed “The South China Sea: Cooperation for Regional Security and Development”, the seminar helps scholars exchange views and promote mutual understanding of common interest in maintaining peace, stability, security and marine safety in the East Sea.

Commentaries & Analyses

China and Malaysia To Hold Maritime Exercises: What Gives?

By Ankit Panda

In a somewhat novel maritime development in the South China Sea, China and Malaysia have agreed to hold joint military exercises next year, following up on a Memorandum of Understanding the two signed in 2005. The exercises were confirmed by Malaysian defense minister Hishammuddin Hussein towards the end of October. The two states formally held their first defense and security consultation in Kuala Lumpur in late 2012. The announcement came just two weeks after reports that Malaysia would establish a marine corps and a naval base close to the James Shoal, which in waters in the South China Sea (SCS) claimed by both China and Malaysia. According to IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, the Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN) is expected to set up a base at Bintulu in the South China Sea "to protect the surrounding area and oil reserves.” Recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping has talked of establishing a “maritime silk road” with ASEAN states – a proposal that was met with considerable skepticism across Southeast Asia given the scope of territorial disputes with China in the SCS. Xi’s proposal is expected to direct Chinese attention and investment towards establishing "a web of trade links and better connectivity between ports and maritime co-operation.” The move to conduct maritime exercises with Malaysia may be an attempt to foment the latter. The decision to conduct these exercises also flies in the face of ASEAN’s strategy against China. The ten-member body has been trying to present a united front against China, which is perceived as a regional “bully” by some. It was unable to determine if the decision to follow-up on the 2005 MOU on Defense Cooperation was initiated by the Chinese side or the Malaysia side. The reaction from other ASEAN states to the decision is sure to be negative, especially considering the very recent flare-ups of maritime disputes between China, Vietnam, and the Philippines. At this point, it's anyone's guess if Malaysia and China are maritime partners or competitors in the South China Sea.

Is China punishing the Philippines?

By Kor Kian Beng

In the aftermath of Super Typhoon Haiyan, which has affected more than four million people and may have killed 10,000, the United States is sending relief aid, military personnel and equipment; Britain is offering an emergency support package worth US$9.6 million … Among Asean members, the Singapore government is donating S$200,000 while Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has told government agencies to send aid and a quick-response disaster relief team. China, which on November 9^th sent its condolences through its embassy in Manila, announced its aid offer on November 11^th. Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang told a regular briefing that the government and the China Red Cross would donate $100,000 each and that China would be monitoring the situation and working with international groups to see what else it can do. Analysts cite various reasons for China's slower response. Dr Xu Liping, an Asean researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said bilateral tensions arising from the two countries' South China Sea dispute is a key factor. "Right now, the Sino-Philippine relationship is not in a normal state, so the government cannot handle the situation through normal means," he said, adding Beijing will have to first check if Manila is ready to accept its aid to avoid any embarrassment. "The government also has to assess how much aid to give because giving too little or too much could invite criticism from the Philippines or even from the Chinese people," said Xu. Some Chinese netizens said the Philippines is being "punished" for standing up to China in the maritime disputes and a botched bus hostage rescue in 2010 that killed eight Hong Kong tourists. But Professor Wang Fan, assistant president of the China Foreign Affairs University, said bilateral tensions do not figure in China's calculations, adding that China also had to cope with the impact of Haiyan, which hit Hainan island and Guangxi province too. 

ASEAN ties key to Abe’s China policy

By Mizuho Aoki

Once he winds up his planned two-day trip to Laos and Cambodia, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will have visited all 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in less than a year since taking office in December. It’s a lightning pace compared to his predecessors, according to a Foreign Ministry official. Starting with Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia in January, Abe has traveled to 23 countries in 10 months, far more than any other prime minister during his tenure in the past decade. The rise of China is responsible for Abe’s frequent globe-trotting, pundits say. Checking in with ASEAN member countries is seen as a bid to deepen bonds to counter China’s growing clout in the Asia-Pacific region. The government hopes to bolster ties with countries that share “common values of democracy, freedom and basic human rights,” to counter China’s growing military and economic power. And ASEAN countries are the vital part of Japan’s diplomatic strategy to keep China in check. While Abe’s frequent trips have succeeded in raising Japan’s profile abroad, Tokyo has so far failed to take the ties to the next level, said Yosihide Soeya, professor of East Asian studies at Keio University.  “By offering support or cooperation, mainly economic, Japan has strengthened ties with those countries. But the important thing is what Japan will build on that foundation, and Japan has yet to reach that stage,” he said. Rather than attempt to counter China, as Abe’s recent moves suggest, the government had better cooperate with ASEAN countries to figure out ways to coexist with it, Soeya said. “No (ASEAN) country will join Japan (to counter China). . . . The last thing they want to do is to make China angry,” Soeya said. As trade increases by the year, China is also becoming an ever more important economic partner for ASEAN countries, experts said. “We need to form closer ties with the region economically, politically, and hopefully in security areas as well. But (its aim should not be to) counter China. It is impossible. What we can do is develop bonds in ‘soft’ areas,” he said.

Why China Will Determine If Asia Goes to War

By  Ankit Panda

In understanding China's rise in Asia, it's worth reflecting on what the United States' post-Cold War “unipolar moment” might have to teach us about power transitions, war, and peace. The U.S. could have used its undisputed spot as the global hyperpower to abrasively pursue its strategic goals worldwide, pushing over weaker states in the process. Indeed, some critics of U.S. policy would argue that it did do exactly that in response to 9/11, but I'm hesitant to go that far. Instead, what the U.S. did was show weaker states that as long as they abided by the post-Second World War liberal order, and did not actively attempt to undermine U.S. national security, it would, for the most part, engage with them peacefully.” Now what's a Chinese strategist to learn from all this? True, China won't have its global “unipolar moment” anytime soon, but its position in greater Asia has bestowed on it a sort of “local unipolarity.” China is powerful, and every Asian foreign ministry cares about its position vis-à-vis Asia's great economic hub. In the story of its rise, more so than the U.S. case, raw economic performance is key. If you believe that China's elites — certainly the Communist Party leadership — derive their legitimacy from China's economic performance, then a stable, peaceful and prosperous Asia should be at the top of China's strategic agenda for Asia. Chinese strategy has largely been the opposite of much of what I've argued for here. This doesn't particularly make good sense for China; its current policies, particularly regarding its territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas, have curried nationalist sentiment at home which does benefit the national leadership in the short term. But, if the CCP leadership is interested in its own long-term survival, it needs to steer Chinese policy in a direction that will result in an Asian environment where China is seen as less of a threat and as more of a willing partner. From India through to Japan, the Asia-Pacific is distrustful of China. The PRC's promise of a "peaceful rise" should not only focus on the means of its rise, but also on the ends. Its foreign policy choices, more so than those of any other state in the Asia-Pacific, will determine whether Asia heads towards war or towards peace and prosperity.