Weekly Bulletin (10 September - 16 September)

China

China plans to expand South China Sea cruise route

A southern Chinese city plans to expand a cruise route in the South China Sea from Paracel Islands to the sprawling island chains, including Spratly Islands. The route is part of the ten-year cruise tourism development plan (2012-2022) for Sanya city, Hainan Province. Sanya first unveiled its South China Sea cruise plan in April and has sent a cruise ship to conduct a trial tour to Phu Lam, the main island of the Paracel Islands chain.

Taiwan asks for participation in code of conduct for South China Sea

The Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked claimants to the disputed South China Sea to invite Taiwan to join in discussions on formulating a code of conduct for the region. The ministry urged the other countries with copeting claims to the region to exercise self-restraint and replace confrontation with dialogue.

Vietnam

Children taught about Vietnam’s sovereignty

School children in the central province of Quang Ngai will be taught about the history of the Hoang Sa and Truong Sa archipelagos since the start of the 2012-2013 academic year. The Director of the provincial Education and Training Department, Thai Van Dong, said on September 10^th that the books are currently being printed. The lessons confirm that Hoang Sa and Truong Sa are completely Vietnam’s sovereignty and that the Vietnamese people have established their sovereignty over the two archipelagoes since the Nguyen Dynasty, the evidence of which remains to this day.

Nha Trang institute holds East Sea conference

The Nha Trang Institute of Oceanography (NIO) is hosting an international conference on the East Sea in Nha Trang city, the central province of Khanh Hoa, with the participation of nearly 200 domestic and foreign experts and scientists. As many as 150 reports and scientific research works reviewing NIO’s 90-year oceanographic operation in Vietnam’s waters and surrounding areas will be delivered to the three-day conference Orientations for developing marine research and cooperation programmes between Vietnam and other countries in the field are expected to be put forth as scientists and experts raised the need for Vietnam to establish a synchronous and highly effective strategy for marine scientific research.

The Philippines

Philippine Navy to arm US-acquired ships

The Philippine Department of National Defense intends to arm its recently-acquired warship, the Navy’s Hamilton-class cutter BRP Gregorio del Pilar, with antiship missiles, a DND official said. The official, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the matter, said the Gregorio del Pilar’s weapons system would be upgraded with Harpoon antiship missiles—described as a modern, all-weather, over-the-horizon defense system.

Philippines to rename the South China Sea

On September 5^th, Philippine President signed Administrative Order No. 29 officially renaming the South China Sea to the West Philippine Sea. “These areas include the Luzon Sea as well as the waters around, within and adjacent to the Kalayaan Island Group and Bajo de Masinloc, also known as Scarborough Shoal,” Benigno Aquino says in the order made public.

Singapore

No change in Singapore's policy on South China Sea

In a statement on Monday (September 7^th), Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong reiterated Singapore's consistent position when he met Philippine President Benigno Aquino on the sidelines of the 20th APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Vladivostok on September 8^th. Mr Lee said Singapore does not take sides on the merits, or otherwise, of the various specific disputes in the South China Sea. He called on all claimants to exercise restraint and for disputes to be resolved peacefully and in accordance with international law.

The U.S.

Hearing at the House Committee on Foreign Affairs

On September 12^th, the hearing titled “Beijing as an Emerging Power in the South China Sea” at the House Committee on Foreign Affairs took place. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee accused China for being a “bully”: “While the world’s attention was turned to other crises, including Iran’s nuclear program and concerns over the faltering Euro, China has upped the ante, playing the role of a schoolyard bully towards its maritime neighbors.” In the testimony, Professor Toshi Yoshihara called on the U.S. and its alliances to actively support Southeast Asian countries to deal with Chinese invasion in the South China Sea. 

US envoy hopes China will lower territorial tensions

The US ambassador to China voiced hope that the Asian power was looking to ease tensions in the region after flare-ups in territorial rows with Southeast Asian nations and Japan. "I've also heard from many prominent Chinese academics that China would like somehow to return to the status quo, that they would like to lower the temperature," Locke said at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

Regional Snapshots

Australia, Singapore urge the South China Sea claimants to settle the disputes in accordance with international law

In the Joint Communiqué of the Seventh Singapore Australia Joint Ministerial Committee, the two sides reiterates that “on the South China Sea, neither Australia nor Singapore took a position on the merits of the various territorial claims, but had an interest in the maintenance of peace and stability, respect for international law, unimpeded trade and the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. Australia and Singapore called on governments to resolve differences peacefully and expeditiously in accordance with international law, including UNCLOS, and to exercise restraint and refrain from actions that could increase tensions.”

Singapore, China hold fourth defense policy dialogue

The fourth China-Singapore defense policy dialogue was held in Singapore on Tuesday (September 11^th), jointly chaired by Ma Xiaotian, deputy chief of general staff of the People's Liberation Army, and Chiang Chie Foo, Singapore's permanent secretary of defense. The two sides had in-depth discussions on topics such as the bilateral relations, the relations between the armed forces of the two countries, the regional security situation and other issues concerning both parties.

Pentagon chief to visit China, Japan

Defence secretary Leon Panetta departed on a trip to China, Japan and New Zealand, officials said on Thursday (September 13^th). Panetta's visit to China, his first as Pentagon chief, comes amid regional tensions fuelled by territorial disputes and swirling rumours over the political fate of Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, who has virtually disappeared from public view in the past two weeks. "We believe this will be a very productive and cordial visit, one that will advance our shared goals of a more transparent and even more viable relationship with the Chinese military", Pentagon spokesman George Little said.

ASEAN senior officials meetings in Phnom Penh

Several ASEAN Senior Officials Meetings (SOM) and Senior Officials meetings between ASEAN and partners took place in Phnom Penh from Sept. 11-14. They included the ASEAN Joint Preparatory Meeting (JPM), ASEAN SOM, ASEAN+3 SOM and East Asia Summit (EAS) SOM meetings, focussing on preparations for the 21 st ASEAN Summit and related events slated for November. The ASEAN-China SOM informal consultation on the Code of Conduct in the East Sea and the ASEAN-US SOM meeting to prepare for the fourth ASEAN-US Summit also took place on this occasion.

Commentaries & Analyses

Preparing for War with China

The debate over AirSea Battle swirls mostly around technology and whether the doctrine is aimed at China. To answer the latter question first: Yes, it is about China. It has to be. From a political standpoint, war with China is neither inevitable nor all that likely. But military people plan against the most formidable capabilities they may encounter. And from an operational standpoint, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) presents the sternest “anti-access” challenge of any prospective antagonist. Either strategists, planners and warfighters prepare for the hardest case, or the United States must write off important regions or options. The PLA thus represents the benchmark for U.S. military success in maritime Asia, by most accounts today’s crucible of great-power competition. If U.S. forces can pierce the toughest anti-access defenses out there—if they can crack the hardest nut—the softer defenses erected by weaker opponents will prove manageable. That focus on anti-access is why AirSea Battle is about China—because it’s the gold standard, not because anyone expects, let alone wants, war in the Western Pacific.

Asian Nationalism at Sea

Some American defense analysts view China’s maritime strategy as being clearly aggressive. Others, however, see a Chinese strategy that is confused, contradictory, and paralyzed by competing bureaucratic interests. China’s policies have damaged its relations with nearly all of its neighbors. In 2002, China and ASEAN agreed on a legally non-binding code of conduct for managing such disputes, but, as a large power, China believes that it will gain more in bilateral rather than multilateral negotiations with small countries. That belief was behind China’s pressure on Cambodia to block ASEAN’s final communiqué this summer. But this is a mistaken strategy. As a large power, China will have great weight in any circumstance, and it can reduce its self-inflicted damage by agreeing to a code of conduct. As for the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, the best proposal is that China should refrain from sending official vessels into Japanese waters, and use a hotline with Japan to manage crises generated by nationalist “cowboys.” At the same time, the two countries should revive a 2008 framework for joint development of disputed gas fields in the East China Sea, and Japan’s central government should purchase the barren islands from their private owner and declare them an international maritime protected area. It is time for all countries in East Asia to remember Winston Churchill’s famous advice: “To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war.”

The Next Battlefield Will Be The South China Sea

In the latest series of provocations, China launched "combat-ready" patrols, offered disputed ocean blocs for sale and set up a garrison and new administration on Sansha. Vietnam countered with continued military overflights of the contested Spratly Islands despite warnings from Chinese officials. With Philippine President Aquino announcing a $1.8 billion upgrade in defense forces the inevitable regional arms build-up has begun. The situation remains even more volatile with a leadership transition underway in Beijing as nationalistic and even jingoistic tendencies rise throughout the country. There are no signs that the cycle of provocation and push-back will end any time soon. It should be no surprise if boat ramming incidents between fishing vessels and cutters eventually turn more confrontational. Perhaps the greatest U.S. influence will be containing any escalation by its presence alone, helping to thwart the notion that China can launch a limited attack on its neighbors without consequences. The U.S. can and will remain a Pacific power, guarantor of the common interest, strengthening cooperation among parties, and routinely testing free access to international waters.

“China’s pattern of assertive behavior on issues related to sovereignty will continue”

This is an assessment of Ms. Bonnie S. Glaser, Senior Fellow at Center for Strategic and International Studies. According to her opinion, because the party bases its legitimacy in large part on its nationalist credentials, no Chinese leader is likely to take early steps to curb the surge in pressure from various domestic sources to firmly defend Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity. Popular sentiment in favor of a tougher Chinese stance toward the South China Sea has already been stoked. The incoming leadership will undoubtedly be aware of the risks of further stoking these sentiments, but the temptation will be irresistible because of the benefits for their legitimacy. In regard to Xi Jinping, Hu Jintao’s likely successor, she believes that Xi is from a new generation that grew up in the era of reform and opening up to the outside world and believes that China is rising quickly.  Confident in the belief that China’s power is growing and the gap between US and Chinese power is narrowing, Xi is likely to stand up for Chinese interests in the international arena, especially those deemed to be China’s “core interests,” which include issues related to sovereignty.

Sea Of Problems

For China, the South China Sea is a matter of sovereignty. Overlapped on economic considerations, China’s keenness in exercising influence is comprehensible. The SCS could provide succour to the energy parched economic behemoth, which is a net importer of oil and natural gas. This is China’s opportunity to project strategic leadership and raise its influence to a higher plane, within the region and more broadly, among the world. A slovenly attitude bordering on belligerence at this critical juncture would severely undermine credibility, not only among regional peers but also global geopolitical rivals. In order to emerge as a responsible participant in the global sphere, it is imperative for China to choose dialogue over arsenal. Troubles, meanwhile, are brewing between China and Japan over the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands) in the East China Sea. Its assertiveness would be welcome, if directed at achieving a multilateral solution to the issue and within the purview of the basic tenets of international law. Some form of equitable distribution and joint development of hydrocarbon resources appears the best mode of action available to regional participants. This is one opportunity of leadership that China should be loath to squander away.

Philippines on frontline of US-China rivalry

The Philippines has emerged as a frontline state in the rivalry between the United States and China for Southeast Asian power and influence. Unless Manila is able to arrive at a "third way" - utilizing creative diplomacy and multilateral dispute settlement mechanisms - strategic reliance on the US will likely grow in the years ahead. Yet if an armed conflict erupts with China, it is not certain that the US would come to the Philippines' rescue. (The US-Philippine mutual defense treaty could be interpreted in a way that does not cover contested territories.) The US's "pivot" towards Asia, meanwhile, has given China added motivation to militarize its territorial claims in the region. "The Americans are sweet talkers. The Philippines should not rely on US military capability in case of a conflict with China in the [South China Sea]," said Chester Cabalza, a professor at the Philippine National Defense College. "The US will not save us and won't act as our knight in shining armor. The US will protect its own economic and strategic interests with China."