Activities of the Claimants

China

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Chinese fleet wraps up open sea patrol

A flotilla with China's Nanhai Fleet stopped at a military port in south China's Guangdong Province on February 11th after a 23-day annual patrol and training mission. The three-ship flotilla, consisting of amphibious landing craft Changbaishan and destroyers Wuhan and Haikou, patrolled waters off the Xisha Islands, Nanshan Islands and the Zengmu Reef, the southernmost part of the country's territory. After the mission in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, the flotilla passed along crucial straits, including the Sunda Strait, Lombok Strait, and Makassar Strait to enter the Indian Ocean and the West Pacific Ocean for the drill.

Beijing slams "irresponsible" US warning on South China Sea

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Amid concerns Beijing may creat another ADIZ to assert territorial claims in the South China Sea, US Pacific Air Force Commander Herbert Carlisle said on February 9th such a step would be "very provocative". At a regular press briefing on February 10th, China's foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying hit back, saying that "setting up an air defence identification zone is a reasonable right for any sovereign state to exercise. "Relevant officials should reflect carefully on what standing they have to make any irresponsible remarks about China's exercising its own reasonable and legitimate rights." Pointing out that the US and other countries also have ADIZs, she asked, "Why can only China not (do the same)?" "We hope that relevant countries and officials can stop making irresponsible comments," she said.

The Philippines

Overwhelming support for Philippine policy on China

Filipinos overwhelmingly support the government’s decision to file a case against China over its excessive claims in the South China Sea, the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed. At least 81 percent of respondents agree with the filing of an arbitration case before a United Nations tribunal, with the highest approval in Metro Manila at 88 percent, Luzon (81 percent) and Mindanao (79 percent). The Philippines expressed delight at the high rate of support for the government’s move to file the arbitral case. “We in the administration are elated that 81 percent of our population supports our position,” President Aquino told The STAR in a text message.

Philippines won't tone down comments on China

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According to a Bloomberg report, Gen. Herbert Carlisle, commander of the US Air Forces in the Pacific, has urged countries involved in the maritime disputes with China to "try and defuse tensions." This is after President Benigno Aquino III and Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reportedly likened China's maritime assertiveness to events prior to World War II in Europe. Carlisle said such remarks were "not helpful." But the Philippines shrugged off Carlisle's call for nations to tone down their remarks. Philippine Presidential Communications Operations Office Sec. Sonny Coloma said Carlisle is a military commander and "his view of the world is different from the view of the world taken on by heads of state" like President Aquino. "[Carlisle] can say what he likes, but the President has the national interest in mind and he needs to say what he needs to say at the right time," Coloma said in an interview on ANC's Headstart.

Philippine legal fight vs China will also serve interest of other nations

The Philippine Department of National Defense (DND) justified President Benigno Aquino III’s call on nations to support the Philippines in defending its territory in the South China Sea. “We must understand the statement of President Benigno S. Aquino III in light of the Philippine Government’s call to the international community to oppose aggressive acts as they contravene established international conventions,” the DND said in a statement on February 11th. It also said that the Philippines’ defense and military establishments have exercised “maximum restraint” in the South China Sea. “Based on the previous occurrences, it is clear that the Philippines has been the object of harassment,” the DND said.

Indonesia

Peace agreement needed to overcome conflicts in Asia-Pacific

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A binding peace agreement was necessary to overcome the conflicts arising in the Asia-Pacific region due to territorial disputes, stated Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa. "Indonesia is pondering over the need to have a kind of friendly agreement and cooperation among countries in the Asia-Pacific region, which can curb potential conflicts linked to territorial disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea," he noted at a press conference here on February 13th. He emphasized that Indonesia will seek a change in the concept of handling territorial disputes in the Asia-Pacific region, so that potential conflicts that exist will not cause more strain in the relations between the concerned countries.

The U.S.

U.S. General Tells Japan, Philippines to Cool China Rhetoric

Comments by the leaders of Japan and the Philippines drawing parallels between China’s growing assertiveness in the region and events in pre-war Europe are “not helpful,” said the commander of U.S. air forces in the Pacific. Carlisle urged all countries involved in territorial disputes with China in both the East and South China Seas to try and defuse tensions. He said any move by China to extend an air-defense identification zone south, where it has disputes over oil-rich waters with the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia, would be “very provocative”.

U.S. admiral assures Philippines of help in disputed sea

The United States will come to the aid of the Philippines in the event of conflict with China over disputed waters in the South China Sea, the commander of the U.S. Navy said on February 13th. The comments by Admiral Jonathan Greenert, chief of naval operations of the U.S. Navy, were the most explicit statement of U.S. support for the ill-equipped Philippine military which is facing a more assertive China in disputed waters. "Of course, we would help you," Greenert told students of the National Defense College of the Philippines in response to a question about a hypothetical Chinese occupation of one of the disputed Spratly Islands. "I don't know what that help would be specifically. I mean, we have an obligation because we have a treaty. But, I don't know in what capacity that help is."

US Navy chief seeks peaceful solution to sea row

On his visit to Malaysia on February 11th, Admiral Jonathan Greenert, chief of US Naval Operations, met Royal Malaysian Navy Chief Abdul Aziz Jaafar to discuss domestic and regional marine security issues. Speaking to reporters after the half-hour meeting, Greenert affirmed that the South China Sea issue needs to be resolved peacefully and it needs to be resolve with diplomacy. “And for those of us that go to sea, it needs to be done professionally and with common protocols, common courtesy at sea, so we don't get involved in miscalculation," said Greenert.

Kerry warns China against new air defence zone

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US Secretary of State John Kerry warned China on February 14th against unilateral moves to set up a new air defence zone, saying such a step could threaten regional stability at a time of heightened tensions. After a day of talks with senior Chinese leaders including President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Keqiang and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Kerry stressed that he had also highlighted the need to ease concerns over Beijing's territorial ambitions. Washington was deeply angered when Beijing last year declared an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea which includes the disputed islands, saying it could lead to confusion high in the skies. Kerry told reporters he had warned Beijing against any further such moves, amid reports that China is considering a similar ADIZ over the South China Sea, where it has competing claims with several countries including the Philippines -- another US security ally. "We've made it very clear that a unilateral, unannounced, unprocessed initiative like that can be very challenging to certain people in the region, and therefore to regional stability," Kerry stressed. Any future such moves should be done "in an open, transparent, accountable way", he said, adding China should meet "the highest standards" of openness "to reduce any possibilities of misinterpretation".

Full statement

Regional Snapshots

Chinese president meets U.S. state secretary

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with visiting U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on February 14th, pledging China's commitment to a new model of China-U.S. relationship. In the meeting at the Great Hall of the People, Xi said he was very glad to see Kerry again as this is the second meeting between them since they came together in Bali, Indonesia, last October. "China is firmly committed to building a new model of China-U.S. relationship together with the U.S. side, and will continue to enhance dialogue, boost mutual trust and cooperation and properly handle differences in the new year so as to forge ahead with the lasting and healthy development of the ties," Xi told Kerry. Later, U.S. Secretary of State Kerry had a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. In the meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged the United States to respect China's sovereign interests in the East China Sea and South China Sea. China sticks to a peaceful development path and continues to seek peaceful settlement of disputes with neighboring countries through negotiations and consultations, Wang said.

U.S. Secretary of State Meets Secretary-General of ASEAN

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On his visit to Indonesia on February 15th-17th, U.S Secretary of State John Kerry visited ASEAN Headquarters in Jakarta where he engaged Secretary-General Minh and other senior ASEAN Secretariat officials in discussions on U.S.-ASEAN relations and other regional issues of mutual interests and concern. Secretary-General Minh and Secretary Kerry exchanged views on issues of regional and international concern, including the issue of the South China Sea, where, in the context of complicated developments taking place,  while emphasizing the need for respect for international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), they reaffirmed the importance of ASEAN’s Six-Point Principles on the South China Sea,  the urgency of  early conclusion of a Code of Conduct (COC) and the  importance of exercising self-restraint.

Vietnam keen to accelerate defence ties with Indonesia

Deputy of Defence Minister Senior Lieutenant General Do Ba Ty has affirmed that Indonesia is one of the top priorities in Vietnam’s policy on external relations. Senior Lieutenant General Ty, who is also chief of the General Staff of the Vietnam People’s Army, made the remarks at talks on February 13th with Indonesian Military Commander General Moeldoko, who is in Hanoi for an official visit from February 12th-15th. Stressing that Vietnam and Indonesia have shared a long-standing friendship, he said the elevation of bilateral ties to a strategic partnership in June last year created a momentum and opened up new chances for the development of the Vietnam-Indonesia relationship. Both host and guest held that positive progress has been seen in bilateral defence cooperation over the past years. During the talks, the two sides also discussed ways to further the cooperation between the two Defence Ministries in the time to come, including the increase of delegation exchanges, joint drills in maritime search and rescue, and in dealing with issues related to law violations by fishermen in bordering sea areas.

Commentaries & Analyses

Time for Tough Love in East Asia

By Ted Galen Carpenter

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China’s neighbors are increasingly nervous about Beijing’s expansive territorial claims and other manifestations of abrasive behavior. They are eager to huddle behind America’s security shield, and Washington seems quite willing to reiterate security guarantees to its allies. However, while East Asian countries that are nervous about China’s power and ambitions are anxious to strengthen their military ties with the United States, there are surprisingly few signs of efforts to develop such ties with each other. Instead, there is an abundance of intramural squabbles, combined with an obsession to preserve “hub and spokes” bilateral security arrangements with Washington. That is the preference of Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and other longstanding U.S. allies, and newer regional actors, such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore likewise adopt a bilateral rather than a multilateral approach. And in all cases, those countries envision a heavy reliance on U.S. power to protect their interests. That is precisely the wrong course, because it will increase the already unhealthy reliance on Washington. If the nations of East Asia are going to create a respectable collective effort to balance China’s power, they need to work out their own differences and forge links of mutual security cooperation. Although the recent increases in national military budgets, especially Japan’s boost, are an encouraging sign, since they reflect greater concern about Beijing’s capabilities and intentions, that development is hardly sufficient. Not only do Tokyo, Seoul and other capitals need to ratchet up spending to a much greater extent than such modest increases indicate, it is imperative for them to become serious about collaborative security efforts. Washington’s willingness to give constant reassurance to its allies is counterproductive. It removes an important incentive for them to bury their parochial quarrels and develop an East Asian regional security network to counterbalance China’s power. Without that greater regional security cooperation, the dependence on the United States will grow, even as the credibility of U.S. promises is likely to fade. The Obama administration needs to send a message of “tough love” to its East Asian allies, a message that it is time for them to take primary responsibility for the security of their own neighborhood, and not always look to Washington for protection.

Kerry fails to make headway over sea disputes

By Minnie Chan and Teddy Ng

US Secretary of State John Kerry ended a visit to China without any breakthroughs on two matters at the top of his agenda – sovereignty tensions in the East Sea and the South China Sea. The only solid outcome of the trip came in a joint statement issued by the two governments yesterday that vowed closer co-operation on climate change. Shi Yinhong , a professor of international relations at Renmin University, said: "Kerry's China visit only provided an opportunity for both sides to make clear their differences on these issues." Jin Canrong, with the same university, said it was expected no consensus on regional issues would be reached during the trip. Instead, the visit was important for Beijing and Washington to prepare for an upcoming meeting between President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama at a nuclear security summit at The Hague late next month. "During this trip, Kerry also reiterated the US invitation for the Chinese navy to join the Rimpac exercise in Hawaii later this year. The US hoped China could send two ships but Beijing has yet to reply," Jin said.

Moderating The China Threat

By Ankit Panda

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Stephen M. Walt first explained that “the states tend to balance against threats, not mere power” in an International Security article in 1985 and since then threat-based analysis has become somewhat of a mainstay among contemporary realists and Western foreign policy elites. Understanding how perceived threats shape foreign policy is invaluable for foreign policy makers. In the Asia-Pacific today, viewing international affairs and emerging alliances through this lens is particularly useful. The rise of China has prompted a scramble along the Asian rimland to balance against what is perceived to be a threat to the established territorial status quo and national interests. China maxes out almost all of the criteria that states generally use to evaluate an external threat: geographical proximity, overall strength, offensive capabilities, and offensive intentions. China’s sheer size and position at the heart of the Asian landmass make its affairs and intentions the interest of all those who surround it. Offensive capabilities and intentions, while a little more blurred in the past, as recently as the Hu-Wen era, are now clearer. The PLA’s bid to modernize its navy and air force, invest in anti-access/area denial technologies, and build aircraft carriers coupled with declarations such as the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone send a troubling message across the region. It appears that the latest generation of the Chinese Communist Party’s leadership is content to continue with a sort of Chinese foreign policy that will inexorably lead to distrust and external balancing among China’s neighbors. Chinese diplomats will give lip service to signing “treaties of good-neighborliness and friendly cooperation” between China and ASEAN but diplomacy can’t be decoupled from the broader threat environment. So what can Chinese leaders do to fix China’s image in the region? Ultimately, it is detrimental for China to be surrounded by neighbors who are are deeply skeptical of its intentions. Until now, the Chinese strategy has been to use its massive economic heft to underscore why conflict would be a mutually undesirable proposition. While this has somewhat worked, it won’t be tenable in the long-term given that external partners will begin to substitute their economic reliance on China to allow for greater maneuverability in their foreign policy with Beijing. China could have followed the United States’ example. While the United States had the power to unilaterally revise the world order any way it wanted following the second World War, it did so in a way that was perceived as fair and reasonable, at least by the economically dominant powers at the time. The analog for China today would be to better incorporate international law and norms into its relations with its neighbors. Unfortunately, phenomena like the East China Sea ADIZ, Hainan province’s fishing rules, and a preference for bilateralism over multilateralism in resolving disputes indicate a move in the opposite direction. It is likely that China will continue to be perceived as a threat by most of its neighbors, at least for the duration of the current generation of the CCP’s leadership. Realist explanations of world politics often read states as black boxes, taking inputs and producing outputs, but ignoring the CCP’s interest in maintaining domestic legitimacy while discussing Chinese foreign policy would be a major oversight. The CCP’s domestic considerations partly help explain why historical pain, nationalist motivations, and the abrasive pursuit of territorial claims persist even though they continue to render China’s neighbors ever-more hostile.