Weekly Bulletin (1 April - 7 April)

Activities of the Claimants

China

China to maintain regular sea patrols

"China will maintain regular patrols in the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea," Liu Cigui, director of the Chinese State Oceanic Administration (SOA), was quoted as saying by the People's Daily on April 1^st. "China's maritime law enforcement used to be loose and inefficient. This move will improve the protection and utilization of oceanic resources and better safeguard China's maritime rights and interests," Liu said.

China to boost maritime training

Rear Admiral Jiang Weilie, commander of Chinese South Sea Fleet, told Xinhua on the amphibious assault ship Jinggangshan, which has been taking part in drills in the western Pacific for two weeks, that training on the high seas was common among many countries' navies. "A developing and growing Chinese navy does not mean China's near-sea defence policy has changed," Xinhua quoted Jiang as saying.

China to open Paracel Islands to tourism before May

China is scheduled to let tourists visit the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea ahead of the forthcoming May Day holiday, said Tan Li, executive vice governor of Chinese southern-most province of Hainan, on April 6^th. People will be allowed to visit the islands on cruise tours, said Tan at the 2013 Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference. Tourists will eat and sleep on the cruise ships and can land on the islands for sightseeing, the official said.

Chinese President: “Friendly talks key to resolving issues”

Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated on April 5^th China's commitment to a negotiated settlement of disputes related to the South China Sea, saying the country will not allow any factors to disturb the China-ASEAN cooperation. Xi said China always undertakes to resolve disputes through friendly consultation and negotiation. "Prior to the resolution, China is willing to enhance the dialogues and communication with ASEAN member countries to jointly maintain the peace and stability of the South China Sea," said Xi while meeting with Brunei's Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah in Beijing. Xi said China is ready to work with Brunei, which holds ASEAN's rotating presidency in 2013, to adhere to the theme of peace and cooperation to promote China-ASEAN relations.

Vietnam

Vietnam slams the use of force on East Sea

Vietnam requests regional countries not to use force against fishermen and other people working at sea, Vietnamese Deputy Defence Minister Senior Lieutenant General Nguyen Chi Vinh said at the ASEAN Defence Senior Officials' Meeting Plus (ADSOM+) held in Brunei on April 4^th. Vinh's statements on behalf of Vietnam were supported by many conference participants.

The Philippines

Philippines orders new Wescom head

Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief Gen. Emmanuel Bautista on April 1^st ordered the new leadership of the Western Command (Wescom) to safeguard the country’s maritime domain in the South China Sea. “Pursue your mandate as protector of the people and the sovereignty and integrity of the state,” Bautista told Guerrero as he enjoined Wescom’s men and women to continue conducting Security Sector Reform Initiatives being enforced by the AFP.

Philippines won’t slow down on international arbitration

The Philippines on April 3^rd said it welcomes US Secretary of State John Kerry’s commitment for a peaceful resolution to the South China Sea dispute even if such a solution does not sit well with China. “I stressed that we are committed to seeing this arbitration through. There should be no confusion or any doubts about our resolve,” Philippines Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario said, adding that Secretary Kerry is fully supportive of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and was one of its strongest advocates for its ratification in the US Senate.

Del Rosario takes swipe at China

Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario on April 5^th has taken a swipe at China over its "excessive and exaggerated" territorial claims in the South China Sea as Philippines and United States formally launched this year's Balikatan exercises. During the opening rites in Camp General Emilio Aguinaldo in Quezon City, del Rosario said the joint military exercises comes at a "crucial time for my country (and) for our region." He said China's excessive and exaggerated maritime and territorial claims have not only created uncertainty but have undermined the rule of law. "Regional peace and stability had been placed at serious risk. For my country, we need to secure our borders and protect our territorial integrity more vigorously than we have before," the Foreign Affairs official said.

The U.S.

US presses Asia 'pivot'

The United States on April 1^st said that it anticipated further military cooperation with Singapore as Washington presses forward its strategy of putting a greater focus on dispute-ridden Asia. Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, kicking off a visit to Washington, spoke to Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel about his views on resolving territorial issues in the East Sea and East China Sea, the Pentagon said. Hagel "made clear the United States and the Department of Defense remain committed to the rebalance towards the Asia-Pacific region," Pentagon spokesman George Little said after the meeting. Hagel told Lee that "in the future there will be even more opportunities for closer collaboration between the United States and Singapore," Little said.

Readout of the meeting between U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

Kerry voices deep US concern over South China Sea tension

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says the U.S. is deeply concerned about tensions in the resource-rich South China Sea and wants to see the territorial disputes there worked out through arbitration. Kerry on April 2^nd met with Foreign Secretary Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario of the Philippines, one of the Southeast Asia nations in a dispute with China over small islands located in sea lanes crucial to world trade. Kerry also reiterated U.S. support for a code of conduct to manage the maritime disputes.

Contested areas of South China Sea likely have few conventional oil and gas resources

EIA's analysis shows that most fields containing discovered oil and natural gas are clustered in uncontested parts of the South China Sea, close to shorelines of the coastal countries, and not near the contested islands. Industry sources suggest almost no oil and less than 100 billion cubic feet of natural gas in proved and probable reserves exist in fields near the Spratly Islands. The Paracel Island territory has even less natural gas and no oil.

Regional Snapshots

Military meetings held in Brunei

On April 2^nd, the ASEAN Defence Senior Officials Meeting (ADSOM) and the ASEAN Defence Senior Officials Meeting Plus (ASDOM+) took place in Brunei. During the meetings, from March 31^st-April 5^th, participants discuss preparations for the agenda of the seventh ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM-7) slated for May this year and the second ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM+) to be held in October of the same year. 

Seminar features Vietnam’s sovereignty over East Sea in Paris

A seminar featuring East Sea related issues on history, military, economics and the media has been held in Paris with the aim of providing basic knowledge and authentic evidence to confirm Vietnam’s sovereignty over Hoang Sa (Paracel) and Truong Sa (Spratly) archipelagoes. Presided over by the “East Sea Group in France”, the event was jointly organised last week by the Association of Vietnamese Scientists and Experts and the Union of Vietnamese Students in France . Speakers presented a brief view of geo-politics, geo-economics and the importance of the East Sea as well as its role and potentials. They also touched upon disputes and some issues related to security and defence in the East Sea.

US assures Philippines of 'full support' in arbitration bid

The United States has assured the Philippines of its full support in its arbitration case to resolve the territorial dispute with China over a number of areas in the South China Sea. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said in a statement on April 10^th that US Secretary of State John Kerry called the arbitration proceedings a "step in the right direction." The DFA added that Kerry "gave his full support to the arbitration efforts in his remarks before members of the press and later in his meeting with Del Rosario at the State Department on April 2^nd."

ASEAN, China to further strategic partnership

Countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China have pledged to further promote their strategic partnership and comprehensive cooperation in line with the principles of mutual understanding and respect as well as friendly neighbourliness. They made the commitment at the 19th ASEAN-China Senior Officials Meeting in Beijing which closed on April 2. The meeting at vice foreign minister level is held annually within the framework of the ASEAN-China dialogue to review bilateral ties in all fields. The two sides reached consensus that maintaining peace and stability in the East Sea is of significance to all countries in the region, contributing to strengthening the ASEAN-China strategic partnership. Both ASEAN and China affirmed their commitment to fully and effectively implementing the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the East Sea (DOC). ASEAN countries stressed that they are willing to soon carry out official COC negotiations with China , in order to foster mutual understanding and trust for peace, security, stability and cooperation for development in the region.

‘Balikatan’ kicks off on April 5^th

The Philippine-U.S. “Balikatan” (shoulder-to-shoulder) military exercises kick off on April 5^th amid fears that these are being used to prepare for a “major attack” by the US. Over 8,000 troops will participate in the joint military training scheduled until April 17^th in Central Luzon. After the U.S. announced that it would deploy 20 of its air assets for the activities, 12 fighter jets or F/A-18 Hornets from the U.S. military will arrive in Clark, Pampanga in the upcoming days, said Balikatan spokesman Major Emmanuel Garcia. The “Hornets” are twin-engine supersonic, all-weather carrier-capable fighter jets, designed to attack ground targets which have been used by the U.S. Navy as demonstration aircraft since 1986. This year’s Balikatan will be focused on humanitarian assistance and disaster response (HA/DR), the fourth time it will do so since 2008 when the exercises started being held every other year.

Commentaries & Analyses

Dialogue and the Deep Blue Sea

By Andrew Billo

A Chinese patrol vessel’s attack on a Vietnamese fishing boat last week is just the latest incident demonstrating Asia’s urgent need to act swiftly, together with the United States, to develop a mechanism for managing territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas. Neither side can afford to let Asia – a driving force of the global economy – be derailed by an escalation of the maritime conflict. Avoiding an adverse outcome will depend on claimant states’ willingness to place a high priority on strategic cooperation – including on energy exploration, fishing rights, and the maintenance of open sea-lanes. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations – which seeks to unite Southeast Asian governments and key external partners, including China, along economic lines – should be allowed to facilitate the dialogue that is needed. After last year’s ASEAN meeting in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, where efforts to issue a joint communiqué reached an impasse, Asia’s leaders must demonstrate a renewed determination to achieve effective regional cooperation. A fractured ASEAN will not benefit anyone. To be sure, there have been examples of bilateral resolution of competing territorial claims. For example, Malaysia and Vietnam agreed to issue a joint claim over a disputed area of the South China Sea. But success depends on mutual willingness to find a solution, and many of the ongoing disputes involve several claims. A united ASEAN can serve as a forum for effective cooperation. However, as Asia rises, it faces a dilemma: whether to abide by Western diplomatic norms, or to respect Asian values, such as consensus, harmony, and good neighborliness – values set forth in the ASEAN Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. To resolve territorial disputes, a balance must be struck between these competing approaches. Given Asia’s global economic role, the rest of the world has a strong interest in supporting such a resolution.

Restructuring China’s Maritime Law Enforcement: Impact On Regional Security

By Li Mingjiang and Zhang Hongzhou

China has restructured its unwieldy maritime law enforcement apparatus. It is a development that signals Beijing’s intention to push ahead with its heavy-handed approach to territorial disputes and maritime contentions with some of its neighbouring countries. The restructuring of the maritime sector is a reflection of Chinese decision makers’ desire to strengthen China’s maritime law enforcement capability, which is widely regarded as an indispensable step towards transforming China into a maritime power. Also, it is widely seen in China that its maritime interests have been increasingly encroached upon and having a unified law enforcement force was primarily intended to assert China’s maritime interests. But it is popularly believed that the country’s law enforcement forces, and the foreign policy community at large, have not done a proper job in protecting China’s rights and interests in the sea. Thus Beijing is unlikely to back down from the maritime security policy which has been described as assertive by many analysts in the past few years. In the meantime, China seems to believe that using the civilian law enforcement forces helps demilitarise the conflicts and avoid direct military confrontation with any neighbouring country. This clearly illustrates that the essence of China’s regional security policy continues to be what can be described as non-confrontational assertiveness. This gives credence to the view that tensions and disputes will very likely persist in the East Asian Seas at least for the next few years.

China’s Maritime Disputes must be carefully managed

Maritime disputes constitute the single likeliest source of instability and military conflict with China, says Michael Swaine, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment. In testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, he explains the primary drivers of tension in the East and South China Seas and identifies steps Washington can take to reduce the risk of hostilities. Policy Recommendations: i) Support a code of conduct: Washington should strongly encourage development of a binding code of conduct governing behavior in contested waters. ii) Pursue quiet diplomacy: The United States should engage in a sustained diplomatic campaign emphasizing close personal interactions with all parties and a low public profile. iii) Encourage joint development of resources: Washington should encourage the establishment of a multinational joint venture capable of adjudicating exploration rights and addressing environmental concerns. iv) Maintain perspective: The United States should keep maritime disputes in perspective, recognizing their deep historical roots and resisting the temptation to view them as a barometer of the U.S.-China strategic relationship. Swaine concludes, “There is no quick fix or silver bullet for resolving these complex and longstanding maritime disputes. It will require patience, sustained effort, and a very deft hand on the part of the United States.”

South Sea Fleet Exercises Shine Spotlight on Tensions

By Peter Mattis

Tensions in the South China Sea once again appear to be on the rise as recent Chinese naval activity has attracted the attention of regional actors. On March 26, Hanoi publicly complained that a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy vessel had set a Vietnamese fishing vessel on fire.. At the same time, the PLAN’s South Sea Fleet—one of the three major naval commands—has conducted a series of exercises that assert Chinese sovereignty and fulfills the “preparations for actual combat” requirements that President Xi Jinping has called for in military training (Xinhua, March 19; PLA Daily, January 13; December 12, 2012).  The atmospherics surrounding these exercises, suggest Beijing is using routine activities to frame the status quo in the South China Sea in its favor. In addition, publicizing PLAN sailors’ pledge to safeguard Chinese sovereignty through national-level propaganda organs was unnecessary, reinforcing the idea Beijing maintains its firm, non-negotiable stance on China’s maritime boundaries. The quantity and quality of the PLAN equipment, including some of its most advanced aircraft and ships, already ensured special attention would be paid without alarming statements about how the PLAN exercised at the furthest reach of Chinese territory (Xinhua, March 26; South China Morning Post, March 26). As normal as the exercises might seem, even the usually quiet Malaysians have expressed concern about the path of a PLAN flotilla conducting drills at the south end of the South China Sea (Wall Street Journal, March 27). The explicit contradictions between China’s statements, actions and principles, thus, are lowering regional expectations that the country’s “peaceful development” is anything other than convenient rhetoric.

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