01/11/2015
While Washington seems to have won the first round of its confrontation with Beijing in disputed South China Sea waters, tensions are likely to remain high and geopolitical risks to mount as China beefs up its military presence.
The USS Lassen, a guided-missile destroyer equipped with the Aegis missile-defense system, left Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia, on Tuesday and sailed within 12 nautical miles of islands built by China on the Subi and Mischief reefs, in the disputed Spratly archipelago. The move demonstrated Washington's rejection of China's claim to the waters within that radius as invalid under international law. Although two vessels from the Chinese navy warned the Lassen, China seems to have refrained from taking more aggressive measures.
There have been spats between the armed forces of the two countries before. A Chinese fighter jet collided in 2001 with a U.S. reconnaissance plane dispatched to the South China Sea near the island of Hainan, a major Chinese military base, forcing the American aircraft to make an emergency landing. And in 2009, a U.S. surveillance ship was surrounded and forcibly stopped by five Chinese ships.
A Chinese military leader had said before the Lassen's passage that Beijing will not use force recklessly in the region, and its actions have borne that out so far. China may have realized that it will come out the loser if a confrontation between ships escalates unexpectedly into a small-scale conflict.
The U.S. Defense Department said the Lassen was the only ship it deployed in the area. But because of the high profile of the exercise, the U.S. may have sent a nuclear-powered attack submarine equipped with cruise missiles or torpedoes and an anti-submarine patrol plane to escort the destroyer. China was concerned that it would lose if it picked a fight carelessly.
Global markets shrugged off the U.S. patrol because Beijing's lack of drastic action kept the situation from elevating.
An ideological clash
However, this is just the beginning of friction between the two in the South China Sea, rooted in a clash between the principle of freedom of navigation crucial to the U.S., a maritime power, and the core interests of a China hungry to expand.
Neither can give way easily. Tolerating China's unilateral extension of its sphere of influence would deal a serious blow to the credibility of the U.S. in the eyes of the international community. Southeast Asia, Europe and the Middle East are all using the South China Sea situation to gauge Washington's strength. As for China, President Xi Jinping has not yet fully consolidated his power base. Seeming to bow to the U.S. would leave him on shakier ground.
Though the U.S. plans to continue patrolling in the region, how long this early victory will last remains unclear.
China has built runways usable by military aircraft and harbor facilities for warships on the reclaimed land. Surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles will likely be deployed on each island. Beijing could also station nuclear submarines equipped with ballistic missiles capable of reaching the continental U.S.
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Read more at Asia Nikkei Review
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