21/01/2013
As China emerges as a leading, modern military power in the Asia-Pacific region, the countries of Southeast Asia are increasingly hedging against possible Chinese military adventurism by rearming themselves. At the same time, China is hardly the only reason for the ASEAN states’ current military modernization efforts. Other external and internal factors – such as new regional security requirements, changing military doctrines, lingering regional suspicions, domestic politics, and supply-side economics in the international arms trade – have also played important roles as drivers of this process.[1] Nevertheless, as China’s military presence in the South China Sea increases – coupled with a growing assertiveness on the part of Beijing to press its claims in the region – any actual or potential “China threat” to Southeast Asia will only grow as the principle driver behind regional military in Southeast Asia.
This paper details the military equipment and capabilities of the states contiguous to the South China Sea (SCS) region, namely China, plus Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. It specifically addresses the military equipment of three services that have the most potential impact on the military situation in the South China, in as much as they may potentially project power into the waters and airspaces of the SCS: naval forces, maritime safety authorities (i.e., coast guards), and air forces (in as much as they can support maritime operations). Besides a description of the size, equipment, and capabilities of these services, this report also details trends in defense spending in SCS-contiguous nations, as military expenditures are generally a critical indicator of both intentions and potential capabilities.
This paper begins with a description of China’s military buildup since the late 1990s, with a particular focus on naval, maritime safety, and air forces that could be used to project power into the SCS. This will be followed up by an analogous account of military modernization in the other states bordering on the SCS. Finally, it closes with an assessment of how these developments could are affecting, or could possibly affect, the military situation in South China Sea.
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[1]See Richard A. Bitzinger, The China Syndrome: Chinese Military Modernization and the Rearming of Southeast Asia, IDSS Working Paper No. 126, (Singapore: Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies, May 2007).
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