Director of National Intelligence James Clapper stated in an intelligence analysis for Congress that China is nearing completion of key military outposts on reefs and islets claimed by several other nations.
“Based on the pace and scope of construction at these outposts, China will be able to deploy a range of offensive and defensive military capabilities and support increased PLA [Navy] and [Chinese coast guard] presence beginning in 2016,” Clapper said.
“Once these facilities are completed by the end of 2016 or early 2017, China will have significant capacity to quickly project substantial offensive military power in the region,” he stated.
The intelligence assessment contradicts Chinese government claims that the military activities in the South China Sea are defensive, limited, and not aimed at achieving regional military hegemony.
“We assess that China has established the necessary infrastructure to project military capabilities in the South China Sea beyond that which is required for point defense of its outposts,” the assessment says.
Clapper also said China is likely to continue building infrastructure at outposts in the South China Sea.
The intelligence analysis was contained in the unclassified portion of a more detailed assessment sent on Feb. 23 to Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.).
It was provided in response to a request from McCain for an assessment of the impact of Chinese island building on Beijing’s ability to deploy military forces across the area.
“Whatever Chinese officials may be saying publicly, Beijing is using coercion and the threat of force to unilaterally change the status quo and challenge the rules-based order in the Asia-Pacific,” McCain told the Washington Free Beacon.
“As China militarizes the South China Sea, the credibility of America’s commitments to the security of our allies and partners in the region hangs in the balance,” McCain added. “I am increasingly concerned that China may seek to next reclaim and militarize Scarborough Shoal, which sits just off the coast of the Philippines. Going forward, shaping rather than reacting to China’s assertive behavior will require adopting policies we have been unwilling to consider up to this point.”
Defense Secretary Ash Carter said in a speech last week that Chinese attempts to militarize the sea are increasing the danger of a conflict.
“These activities have the potential to increase the risk of miscalculation or conflict among claimant states,” Carter said. “China must not pursue militarization in the South China Sea. Specific actions will have specific consequences.”
Clapper stated in the letter that the Chinese appear to be preparing to base fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, and coastal anti-ship cruise missiles at its outposts in the South China Sea. Also expected are increased deployments of PLA Navy warships and Chinese coast guard patrol ships.
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