Pushed too far
Malaysia has traditionally kept the U.S. at arm's length, but recent years have seen a gradual increase in military cooperation between the two countries. In one of the most notable developments, the U.S.'s state-of-the-art P-8 maritime surveillance aircraft has been landing and refueling at Malaysian bases along the South China Sea.
Malaysia quietly started allowing the U.S. military to use two of its bases in the second half of last year, multiple ASEAN officials revealed. Under the arrangement, the U.S. must obtain permission for each P-8 flight, and any information gathered from the reconnaissance missions is shared with Malaysia, according to the officials.
"The cooperation with the U.S. military has not been announced, but, of course, China must have noticed," one of the ASEAN officials said. "Malaysia knows full well that helping the U.S. will invite a backlash from China."
Previously, Malaysia took great pains to strike a conciliatory tone with China, even when disputing territorial issues, according to an ASEAN official. This was in marked contrast to the Philippines and Vietnam, two ASEAN members who have been much more vocal in their disputes with China.
Malaysia felt more progress could be made through quiet, behind-the-scenes negotiations rather than by clashing openly with Beijing, one Malaysian official explained. Moreover, the official added, China had not provoked Malaysia militarily as much as it had the Philippines and Vietnam.
But as Beijing stepped up its maritime posturing, alarm bells started ringing in Kuala Lumpur.
Chinese vessels crossed into Malaysia's exclusive economic zone 35 times between 2008 and 2012, according to the Malaysian authorities. In 2013, the Chinese navy conducted a drill off the Malaysian coast, followed by another in spring 2014. Matters escalated even further this past June when a Chinese patrol ship showed up in Malaysia's coastal waters, leading to a direct confrontation with a Malaysian naval ship that had been dispatched to the area in response.
To curb this increasing assertiveness, the Malaysian government began granting the U.S. Navy greater access to its ports. In 2003, U.S. naval ships were allowed to dock in Malaysia only six time. That number has been four to five times higher since 2012.
In addition to indirectly supporting American military activities in the region, Malaysia has also decided to set up a naval base on its South China Sea coast and create a landing force.
"Already, there are more people within the Malaysian government expressing doubt about the current soft approach," said Shahriman Lockman, a senior analyst at the Institute of Strategic & International Studies Malaysia. "At the same time, very few people can offer a good alternative. I would expect that Malaysia will do things very, very quietly with countries such as U.S., Japan and India."
Tipping point?
A shift in Malaysia's stance could significantly alter ASEAN's relationship with the world's second-largest economy.
The bloc's members can be divided into three groups based on their attitude toward China. The first, consisting of the Philippines and Vietnam, takes a hardline stance, while the second group, including Cambodia and Laos, is pro-China. Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand belong to the third group, whose sentiment toward Beijing is more or less neutral.
The third group holds particular sway within the bloc, and their stance could serve to tip the diplomatic scales in the U.S.'s favor. In addition to Malaysia, Indonesia also merits close attention, since it accounts for roughly 40% of ASEAN's entire population.
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Read more at Nikkei Asian Review
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