Although the Chinese government has maintained that its outposts will be used mainly for non-military purposes, U.S. officials have indicated otherwise. The head of U.S. Pacific Command, Adm. Harry Harris, has argued that China’s “Great Wall of Sand” could support fighter aircraft, surveillance systems and electronic warfare capabilities.
Yet many U.S. analysts appear convinced that China’s construction activities won’t meaningfully affect U.S. military advantages in the area. An oft-heard remark in Washington is that China’s artificial islands would be easy targets for U.S. air and naval forces during a conflict. The conventional wisdom is that their strategic value is negligible.
Unfortunately this view is far too sanguine. To be sure, the islands’ small size, remote location and inherent vulnerability make it unlikely that Beijing would be able to use them for sustained combat operations, even against some of its weaker neighbors. But small quantities of the right capabilities could alter the military balance in the region, and a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) buildup in the area could give China an important coercive edge.
With expansive port facilities and extended runways, artificial islands could serve as logistical hubs for maritime forces and forward bases for aircraft. So equipped, China could increase the endurance of its naval platforms operating in the area; fly regular airborne intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets much farther from its coastline; and conduct combat air patrols over territory that it claims as its own, perhaps in support of a future air defense identification zone over the South China Sea.
Even without this infrastructure, China’s artificial islands might host anti-ship missile batteries and air-defense systems that would heighten the risk to any surface vessels and aircraft in the vicinity. If Beijing deployed these weapons to several different islands in the South China Sea, and if these weapons had sufficient range, then it might be able to create mini denial zones, where other countries’ civilian and military assets could be held at risk from multiple locations.
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