alt

Activities of the Claimants

China

China lashes out at US, Japan for ‘irresponsible remarks’ over ADIZ issue

The word war over the plans of China to establish an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the South China Sea heated up further after Beijing lashed out at the United States (US) and Japan for their “irresponsible remarks.” “As a sovereign state, China has all the rights to safeguard national security with any means, including establishing the ADIZ in response to the situation of air security,” Hong Lei, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, said in a press conference on February 2nd. No one is allowed to make irresponsible remarks,” he said in response to reports published by Japanese media saying that China plans to establish the said ADIZ and that the US has warned against such a move.

China refutes U.S. criticism of its maritime claims

alt

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said on February 8th that China' s maritime rights in the South China Sea are formed by history and protected by the international law. Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei made the remarks in response to the statement of U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Danny Russel concerning China's territorial claims in the South China Sea. Noting that some U.S. officials' remarks in congressional testimony are not constructive, Hong urged the U.S. side to take a rational and fair attitude towards the South China Sea issue, so as to play a constructive role in promoting peace, stability and prosperity in the region, rather than the other way round.

Beijing blasts Noy’s WWII analogy

China has reminded President Aquino of Beijing’s role in the “World Anti-Fascist War,” noting that it was “inconceivable and unreasonable” for him to place the South China Sea disputes in the same category with the World War II history. “As an unwavering upholder of international justice, China made huge sacrifice and indelible historical contribution to the victory of the World Anti-Fascist War,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei stressed. He noted that the maritime disputes “mainly stem from the Philippines’ illegal occupation of some islands and reefs of China’s Nansha islands (Spratly islands).”

The Philippines

Philippine Leader Sounds Alarm on China

alt

Philippine President Benigno S. Aquino III called on February 4th for nations around the world to do more to support the Philippines in resisting China’s assertive claims to the seas near his country, drawing a comparison to the West’s failure to support Czechoslovakia against Hitler’s demands for Czech land in 1938. Like Czechoslovakia, the Philippines faces demands to surrender territory piecemeal to a much stronger foreign power and needs more robust foreign support for the rule of international law if it is to resist, President Aquino said in a 90-minute interview in the wood-paneled music room of the presidential palace. “If we say yes to something we believe is wrong now, what guarantee is there that the wrong will not be further exacerbated down the line?” he said. He later added, “At what point do you say, ‘Enough is enough’? Well, the world has to say it — remember that the Sudetenland was given in an attempt to appease Hitler to prevent World War II.”

Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs backs Aquino’s remarks on China

The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) supported the statement of President Benigno Aquino III against China, saying that the international community should unite against Beijing’s expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea. “Expansionism in the form of the 9-dash line in the South China Sea is in gross violation of the rule of law and threatens peace and stability,” DFA spokesman Raul Hernandez said in a press conference February 6th. “This expansionism is being driven by might and not what is right. We should learn from history that appeasement does not halt expansionism. To prevent the mistake of the past, the entire international community should unite in upholding the rule of law,” he said.

Aquino hails U.S. fresh call to use int'l law to solve sea disputes

Philippine President Benigno Aquino on February 7th hailed a U.S. top diplomat's call on all claimants to territory in the South China Sea to peacefully resolve their disputes in accordance with international law. "We welcome his statement," Aquino told reporters, referring to remarks made on February 4th by Daniel Russel, assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific affairs, in congressional testimony. "That's all we are hoping for, that all of us to adhere to international law," Aquino said.

The U.S.

U.S. urge China not to establish ADIZ in the South China Sea

Speaking at the Foreign Press Center in Washington on February 4th, Danny Russel, the assistant secretary of state for East Asia reiterated US warnings to China not to create an ADIZ zone in the  South China Sea, where Beijing has disputes with the Philippines, Vietnam and  other countries. “We have made clear that we urge China not to attempt to implement the ADIZ  and certainly not to replicate it in other sensitive areas, including and  particularly in the South China Sea,” he said. 

US presses Beijing on South China Sea claims

alt

 

The United States on on February 5th urged Beijing to clarify or adjust its claims in the South China Sea, calling for a peaceful solution to one of Asia's growing flashpoints. With tensions already high over Beijing's imposition of an air zone above islands administered by Japan in the East China Sea, fears are growing of a fresh showdown in a separate row in the South China Sea where the Philippines is especially concerned. Addressing the rifts, the top US diplomat for the region challenged Beijing's so-called "nine-dash line" that outlines its territorial claims over much of the South China Sea. Danny Russel, the US assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, said that maritime claims under international law needed to be based on land features. "Any Chinese claim to maritime rights not based on claimed land features would be inconsistent with international law," Russel told a congressional committee. "China could highlight its respect for international law by clarifying or adjusting its claim to bring it into accordance with international law of the sea," he said.

U.S. calls for peaceful solutions to regional maritime tensions

The United States called for peaceful ways for countries in the East China Sea and South China Sea regions to address tensions there, the commander of the U.S. Pacific Command said on February 5th. "We believe the tensions must eventually be resolved diplomatically and peacefully," Adm. Samuel J. Locklear III said. The U.S. does not take sides in the territorial disputes, but expects the security environment in the region to be stable, he said in response to questions during a telephone press conference with journalists in the East Asia-Pacific region. Asked about Southeast Asian countries' concerns over a possible move by China to declare an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the South China Sea following its controversial establishment of an ADIZ over the East China Sea, Locklear said that any attempt by any party to change the status quo is unacceptable, leads to insecurity and should be avoided. He also reiterated the U.S. stance that it does not recognize China's ADIZ for an area covering the East China Sea, calling it "an unnecessary action by the Chinese to try to change the status quo."

Regional Snapshots

US reaffirms commitment to deepen cooperation with ASEAN

alt

The US has reaffirmed its commitment to deepen its practical cooperation with ASEAN on areas of mutual interest including humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, according to the ASEAN Secretariat. Admiral Locklear also emphasised the US strong commitment to support ASEAN in its endeavours to promote peace and security in the region, adding that the US PACOM has the resources available to support and assist ASEAN. The US PACOM has assigned personnel to assist the US Ambassador to ASEAN in Jakarta. The US, the Admiral said, also stands ready to assist Myanmar in its capacity as the ASEAN Chair this year, and incoming Chair, Malaysia in 2015, he said.

US Secretary of State John Kerry vows to back Japan in East China Sea

Secretary of State John Kerry vowed that the United States would defend Japan against attack including over islands claimed by China as tensions boil between the Asian powers. Kerry met in Washington with Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida on February 7th and reaffirmed the 1960 treaty that commits the United States to protect its ally against attacks. "That includes with respect to the South China Sea," he said, before correcting himself to say the East China Sea, where China and Japan have conflicting claims. "The United States neither recognises nor accepts China's declared East China Sea ADIZ and the United States has no intention of changing how we conduct operations in the region," Kerry said.

India for code of conduct in South China Sea

Until a solution is found to defuse tension in the South China Sea, India would like to have a code of conduct for all countries with stakes in the region so that the situation does not escalate, Air Marshal P.K. Roy, Commander-in-Chief of the joint services Andaman and Nicobar Command, has said. Maintaining that freedom of navigation was valid for everyone, he said many countries had economic interests in the region.

Commentaries & Analyses

Air defence zone in South China Sea is unlikely

By Wu Nan andAgence France-Presse

alt

China is unlikely to set up an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in the South China Sea in the near future, mainland experts say. "Judging from China's official statements in recent months and its regional strategy, it is unlikely China would set up an ADIZ in the South China Sea and aggravate tension in the region," said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University. Citing unnamed sources, including from the central government, the Asahi said air force officials in the People's Liberation Army had drafted proposals for the new zone, which could cover much of the sea and include the Paracel Islands. Professor Jia Qingguo, of the School of International Studies at Peking University, said the need to set up a zone for the South China Sea was less pressing than for the East China Sea. Mainland officials have not responded to Asahi's report. Amid rising tension, a senior Chinese official said on January 31st Beijing's relationship with Tokyo was "probably at its worst". Fu Ying, chairwoman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of China's National People's Congress, said the government in Beijing would "respond effectively to any provocation". "Many people are worried," Fu said. "The bilateral relations ... are suffering a lot." A PLA-affiliated website posted images it said showed Chinese fighter jets on their way to the East China Sea to "fend off foreign aircraft".

China’s Drafting a South China Sea ADIZ

By Zachary Keck

On January 31st the Asahi Shimbun carried a report that said that “working-level air force officials” in China “have already worked out a draft plan for the prospective” ADIZ for the South China Sea. It also said that the “Air Force Command College, a cadre development and research institution in Beijing that helped draft the East China Sea ADIZ,” has been working on the South China Sea ADIZ for some time now, and submitted an original draft plan to senior military leaders as early as May 2013. Many analysts and foreign policymakers have speculated that the South China Sea would be the next area where Beijing would seek to establish an ADIZ. Establishing a South China Sea ADIZ would also be consistent with China’s recent increased naval patrols of the South China Sea, as well as the reported expansion of those patrols to places like Malaysia. The Asahi Shimbun report said that Chinese officials were still discussing what areas the ADIZ in the South China Sea will cover. According to Asahi’s sources, some Chinese officials advocate having it cover the entire South China Sea while others are suggesting it only go as far as the Paracel Islands. The precise dimensions of the South China Sea ADIZ will be important for at least two reasons. First, a more encompassing ADIZ claim would antagonize more of China’s Southeast Asian neighbors, raising the possibility that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will be able to unite internally in standing up to China in the South China Sea. By contrast, a narrower ADIZ might allow China to continuing isolating certain countries like the Philippines and Vietnam. Second, the exact size of the ADIZ is also important in terms of China’s ability to enforce the rules it establishes. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) lacks enough aircraft with sufficient range to effectively enforce an ADIZ further out in the South China Sea, making it much easier for even smaller nations to openly defy China’s regulations. By contrast, a smaller ADIZ might give the PLAAF a better chance of making the ADIZ more than just Beijing staking a future claim to the area.

The U.S. and China’s Nine-Dash Line: Ending the Ambiguity

By Jeffrey A. Bader

alt

For the first time, the United States government has come out publicly with an explicit statement that the so-called “nine-dash line” is contrary to international law. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Danny Russel, in testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on February 5th, said, “Under international law, maritime claims in the South China Sea must be derived from land features. Any use of the 'nine-dash line' by China to claim maritime rights not based on claimed land features would be inconsistent with international law. The international community would welcome China to clarify or adjust its nine-dash line claim to bring it in accordance with the international law of the sea." By explicitly rejecting the nine-dash line, Assistant Secretary Russel and the administration have drawn the line in the right place. They have made clear that the U.S. objection is a principled one, based on international law, not a mere rejection of a claim simply because it is China’s. So long as U.S. approach to the South China Sea remains firmly grounded on principle and international law, the U.S. can accomplish its objectives, strengthen the position of other claimants with respect to their rights and avoid the appearance of seeking confrontation with China over a sovereignty issue. What else can and should the U.S. do? i) The U.S. should ensure that its approach is not seen as unilateral. The U.S. government should make clear to the other claimants, and to other ASEAN countries like Singapore and Thailand, that it expects them to be public in their rejection of the nine-dash line under international law.ii) The U.S. should discuss with Taiwan whether it can clarify its position on the nine-dash line, to make clear that its claims are consistent with UNCLOS.  iii) The U.S. should continue to make a high priority negotiation of a Code of Conduct between China and the ASEAN states. iv) The U.S. should urge the Chinese not to establish any new ADIZ in the South China Sea. v) The U.S. should discuss with all the claimants possible agreement on exploitation of mineral and fish resources without regard to sovereignty, including the use of joint ventures between companies. vi) The Senate should ratify the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea.

China, the Philippines, and the Makings of a 'Munich' Moment

By Peter Beinart

Recently, Philippine President Benigno Aquino III did something I’ve rarely heard before: He compared a contemporary international situation to “Munich” without sounding absurd. For more than half a century, “Munich” has been the most abused analogy in American foreign policy. The actual Munich agreement, signed in late September 1938 by Germany, Britain, France, and Italy, gave the largely German-speaking Sudeten region of Czechoslovakia to Germany despite Czech warnings that it would leave the country defenseless and whet Hitler’s appetite for further conquest, which it did. Since then, “Munich” has become code for a diplomatic concession that emboldens future aggression. The Philippine leader fears that if the world grants China’s vast claims in the South China Sea, it will embolden Beijing to take even more belligerent action toward its neighbors. Aquino’s reasoning has some merit. The South China Sea, like the Sudetenland, is strategically valuable. The latter boasted heavy industry that proved vital to Germany’s war effort; the former contains large deposits of oil and natural gas. The Philippines enjoys a defense treaty with the United States, as Czechoslovakia did with France. Yet there’s good reason to believe that the war-weary Washington of 2014—like the war-weary Paris of 1938—would rather see Manila capitulate than risk world war. Above all, China today—like Germany in the 1930s—is a country converting its tremendous economic vitality into military might. It’s a country with a strong sense of historical grievance that wants to assert what it considers its natural role as the dominant power in its region. And it’s a country whose leaders are increasingly confident that the distant, status-quo powers that once held it in check can no longer do so. At a time when the Middle East still dominates American foreign-policy discussion, the United States badly needs a serious public debate about its interests in the Pacific, and what it will risk to protect them. Aquino’s analogy may be flawed, but unlike most Munich references, it at least recognizes the magnitude of the stakes.