Weekly Bulletin (29 October - 4 November)

Activities of the Claimants

China

Chinese and Taiwanese academics renew calls for cross-strait territorial ties

Academics from both sides of the Taiwan Strait recently renewed calls for cooperation between Taiwan and China in managing the situation in the South China Sea, suggesting the two sides lay a basis for possible joint exploration in the region that could involve other claimants. The academics said that state-run oil refiner CPC Corp, Taiwan (CPC) and China’s state oil giant, China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC), should expand their existing cooperation to exploit resources from waters north of the Pratas Islands to waters off its eastern coast and waters around the Spratly Islands.

China, Taiwan obligated to safeguard sovereignty

Yang Yi, spokesman for the State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office said that compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have concerted obligations to safeguard Chinese sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. "We will be happy to see discussions over the topic by enterprises and non-government organizations from both sides of the Taiwan Strait," he added.

China to speed up construction of “Sansha City”

Following the illegal building and developing of the so called “Sansha City”, China’s People’s Daily Online and Xinhua recently reported that “Sansha City” held a meeting with the media to mark its first 100 days of establishment and the city’s authorities are speeding up the building of wharfs, airports and administrative offices. These escalating acts seriously violate Vietnam’s sovereignty over the Hoang Sa (Paracel) and Truong Sa (Spratly) archipelagos - administrative units under the management of Danang city and Khanh Hoa province in central Vietnam.

Philippines

Philippines to get 5 French patrol boats

The Philippines will buy five patrol boats from France for about 90 million euros ($116 million), partly to guard disputed areas in the South China Sea, the coastguard said Tuesday. Philippine Rear Admiral Luis Tuason, the chief of the poorly equipped coastguard, said one 82-meter (271-foot) ship and four 24-meter (79-foot) patrol craft would be delivered by 2014. Tuason cited the need for such ships to patrol the rough waters of the South China Sea.

Philippines to raise sea dispute at ASEM

Philippine President Benigno Aquino said Sunday (4^th November) his country would raise overlapping claims to the South China Sea during a summit of Asian and European leaders in Laos this week. Aquino said the Philippines, meanwhile, would seek “suggestions on ways to craft a just and peaceful agreement on the South China Sea.”

Vietnam

Vietnamese Foreign Minister: “ASEAN is eager to promote official exchanges with China on the Code of Conduct of parties in the East Sea (COC)”

On the sidelines of Vietnam National Assembly Meeting, Foreign Minsiter Pham Binh Minh shared his views on the prospect of concluding the COC. He said that ASEAN states is eager to cooperate with China on the COC. This COC will be more binding than the Declaration on the Conduct of parties in the East Sea (DOC) as well as the guidelines  to implement the DOC, or in other words, the COC will provide better measures to maintain peace and stability in the East Sea.

Others

ASEAN Chief stresses positive signs in East Sea (South China Sea) issue

Sovereign disputes in the East Sea could become violent but China and ASEAN member countries are showing a sense of urgency in trying to ease tensions, said the ASEAN Chief. ASEAN Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan told reporters on the sidelines of a meeting in Kuala Lumpur , Malaysia on October 30 that "good signs" have been seen during informal talks between the 10-nation group and China in the Thai resort of Pattaya this week. He said that both sides are now saying they want to get a Code of Conduct in the East Sea (COC) done as soon as possible because ‘it doesn't serve anybody's interests if delay’. “It's a yo-yo but at least now they agree to talk," Surin was quoted as saying.

Indian naval battleship sails for ties with ASEAN

Ship INS Sudarsini, the latest tall sail training ship (STS) of the Indian Navy, arrived in Bali, Indonesia on October 27, the first ASEAN country in its friendship tour to mark the 20-year India- ASEAN relations. Shyam Sundar, the ship’s captain, said that it is great honour for him and his crew to make the voyage aiming to strengthen the fine dialogue partnership between his country and ASEAN member countries. 

Cambodia: “Code for South China Sea a Long Way Off”

A legally binding agreement between Asean members and China designed to avoid conflict over disputed waters in the South China Sea will not be adopted during this month’s Asean summit, a Cambodian foreign affairs official said yesterday. Speaking after a meeting in Phnom Penh between senior foreign affairs officials from Asean member states and China, Secretary of State Soeung Rathchavy said it was unrealistic to think that a Code of Conduct for waters believed to be rich in oil and gas would be approved during the summit.

Regional Snapshots

India, US, Japan discuss maritime security

Senior officials of India, the US and Japan Monday held their third trilateral dialogue that focused on firming up strategies to combat piracy, bolstering maritime security and leveraging their strengths to shape the the Asia-Pacific architecture.

Australian aircraft carrier visits Vietnam

A light aircraft carrier of the Royal Australian Navy, “HMAS Sydney”, carrying 229 troops on board, anchored at Ho Chi Minh City Port on October 29th, to start its six-day visit to the city. The visit is a contribution to strengthening the friendship between the two countries in general, and the two sides’ navies in particular.

Maritime cooperation between China and ASEAN promised

The Maritime Safety Administration, or MSA, has been actively promoting and pursuing closer ties with maritime institutions in ASEAN countries in maritime search and rescue, but given the current situation, the administration needs more time before it can create a comprehensive mechanism, officials with the administration told China Daily. The officials spoke on the sidelines of the 8th Meeting on the ASEAN-China Maritime Consultation Mechanism, held in Zhuhai, Guangdong province.

ASEAN, China to fully, effectively implement DOC

Senior officials of ASEAN and China have agreed to fully and effectively implement the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the East Sea (DOC). Cambodian Secretary of State Soeung Rathchavy, who chaired the meeting, said the delegates exchanged views in a positive and frankly way. ASEAN and China agreed on the need to fully and effective implement the DOC in order to transform the East Sea into a sea of peace, stability, friendship and cooperation for mutual interests. 

ASEAN-China workshop honoring milestone document concerning South China Sea

Senior officials of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China jointly held a workshop on the 10th anniversary of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) on Thursday (30^th October). "The workshop is the opportunity for both sides, ASEAN and China, to really reflect on how to keep the DOC alive in dealing with the current situation in the South China Sea," Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Hor Namhong said at the opening address.

Commentaries & Analyses

The Dangerous Math of Chinese Island Disputes

Since 1949, China has been involved in 23 territorial disputes with its neighbors on land and at sea. Seventeen of them have been settled, usually through compromise agreements. Nevertheless, China has used force, often more than once, in six of these disputes. There are 5 reasons that may led China to resort to the use of force. First, China has usually only used force in territorial disputes with its most militarily capable neighbors. These include wars or major clashes with India, Russia and Vietnam. Second, China has also used force most frequently in disputes over offshore islands. Third, China has mostly used force to strengthen its position in disputes where it has occupied little or none of the land that it claims. Fourth, most importantly, China has used force in territorial disputes during periods of regime insecurity, when leaders have a greater incentive to show resolve. The final destabilizing factor in the Senkaku/Diaoyu standoff is that both sides are simultaneously engaged in other island disputes. Tokyo and Beijing may both conclude that whoever prevails in the Senkakus will have a better chance at prevailing in these other disputes.

Searching For China’s Concept Of Joint Development In The South China Sea

While roadblocks and irritants exist, there are also welcome developments on the part of China along the lines of pursuing joint development in South China Sea (SCS). For one, while China has no established track record for joint development on non-living marine resources, Beijing was able to conclude joint fishery agreements with several of its maritime disputants, notably with Japan in the East China Sea (1997), with South Korea in the Yellow Sea (2000) and with Vietnam in the Tonkin/Beibu Gulf (2000). China is also gradually expressing more receptiveness towards multilateral approaches in addressing the SCS disputes as demonstrated by its adherence to the 2002 Declaration of Conduct of Parties in the SCS, although Beijing has not shown the same enthusiasm for a more binding code of conduct. Moreover, although unfortunate incidents still happen, China is doing its part in winning the goodwill of Southeast Asia through generous aid and investment flows. In sum, much is expected from China as the responsible big power in any comprehensive joint development in the SCS. 

China’s Island Strategy: “Redefine the Status Quo.”

The most striking feature of China’s behavior in its maritime disputes this year has been efforts to redefine the status quo. In its disputes with the Philippines and Japan, China has used the presence of its civilian maritime law enforcement agencies to create new facts on the water to strengthen China’s sovereignty claims. Before the Scarborough standoff, China had no permanent presence at Scarborough Shoal. Three months later, China had effective control of the shoal and the surrounding waters, thereby altering the status quo in this dispute in its favor.  A similar dynamic is underway in the East China Sea over the Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands.  Before the Japanese government’s purchase of three of the islets from a private citizen in September 2012, Chinese government ships had generally avoided entering the 12 nautical mile limit of Japan’s territorial waters around the islands.  After the purchase of the islands last month, however, China has abandoned this approach. China first issued baselines to claim its own territorial waters around the islands and then began to conduct almost daily patrols within its newly-claimed waters – directly challenging the Japanese control that it had largely accepted before. In both cases, China responded to challenges to its claims with an enhanced physical presence to bolster China’s position and deter any further challenges.  These responses suggest an even greater willingness to pursue unilateral actions to advance its claims.

Construction tensions in the South China Sea

China's interpretation of the key legal regime concerning maritime disputes, namely the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), takes a divergent interpretation of Article 121 on "regime of islands". Southeast Asian claimants such as the Philippines look at the majority of features in the South China Sea as "uninhabitable" and therefore only able to lay claim to 12 nautical miles of territorial waters. By installing relatively large-scale structures capable of housing humans, China seems determined to turn these features into habitable islands. The implication is significant for the Philippines and other claimant states. Through a more liberal interpretation of the UNCLOS' Article 121 China can feasibly claim 200-mile EEZs from each of its occupied islands, allowing it to lay legal claim to oil-and-gas-rich areas as far south as Indonesia's Natuna Islands as well as the Philippines-claimed Reed Bank. Strategic analysts say China's buildup could also serve as a foundation for fortifications that enable large-scale future military deployments. China's Defense Ministry announced in July that Sansha city would be the operational center of a new military garrison in the South China Sea, though details of the plan have been scarce. Operationally, such a garrison would allow China to push its claims further into Philippine-claimed EEZs.

The Commissioning of Liaoning- From Indian Perspective

For those who followed the story from the beginning, the commissioning of the Chinese aircraft carrier does not come as a shock since it is the fruit of a long process of maturation, a process that is not yet over. As the Chinese envisage building more aircraft carriers, we can reasonably state that its carrier group would sail further away once China masters the technology and expertise. In this regard, the ‘String of Pearls’ could prove very useful as it can provide supply bases for carrier deployment beyond China’s neighbouring waters. Such an extension of China’s power projection would overlap with India’s interests as China could deploy its assets not only in the South China Sea where India has economic interests, but also in the Indian Ocean Region which is of core interest to India. Such an intrusion by China would certainly be seen in India as provocative. Thus, even if we agree that the commissioning of the Liaoning is not targeted at India, it could lead in the future to a more capable PLAN that can project power into the Indian Ocean and challenge the IN whose primary mission is Sea Control.9 It is therefore crucial that India monitors Chinese naval developments as well as speed up its own carrier procurement programme. If the Indian programme is unsuccessful, or becomes inordinately delayed, India could lose its edge over China in its own waters in the future.