alt

Activities of the Claimants

China

Xi sets out priorities for foreign policy

Chinese President Xi Jinping called for a comprehensive strategy to engage China's neighbours as he laid down foreign policy directions at a two-day conference that ended on October 25th. The conference was chaired by Premier Li Keqiang and attended by party elite from all levels along with chiefs from the central bank, key financial institutes and state-owned enterprises. In the conference, Xi said China should proactively improve ties with neighbouring countries "strategically important to China". "Maintaining a peaceful and stable environment among our neighbours should be the aim of our diplomacy," he was quoted as saying by state-run CCTV.

The Philippines

Acquisition of jets not related to China row

alt

The Philippine Defense department on October 21st maintained that the acquisition of fighter jets from South Korea has nothing to do with the territorial row in the South China Sea. “This (acquisition) has been planned even before the developments in the West Phil Sea (South China Sea),” Philippine Defense department spokesman Peter Galvez said in a phone interview. Galvez was asked for a reaction after a Japanese paper reported on October 20th that China had asked South Korea not to sell FA-50 jets to the country.

Philippines expects early UN ruling on sea dispute with China

Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said the Philippines initiated arbitration proceedings this year after exhausting all political and diplomatic avenues of resolution, and called China's claim on the South China Sea "expansive and excessive". "Our lead counsel believes that without China's participation, the award will come down faster and may come down by 2014," del Rosario told a group of diplomats and chief executives of top private and public corporations. "This is a positive development," he added. Del Rosario earlier told Reuters that going by previous cases, the arbitration case could take three to four years to resolve, insisting the tribunal's decision "will be legally binding on all parties and will not be appealable".

Philippine Defense Secretary clarifies conflicting reports on Scarborough Shoal concrete blocks

alt

Philippine Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin on October 25th explained the conflicting information about the concrete blocks in Scarborough Shoal, the subject of a territorial dispute between the country and China. “The president is right that some of the blocks have barnacles meaning that they are already old. But this is new to us because we just saw them recently,” the defense chief said. Gazmin said the high tide might have prevented the surveillance teams from seeing the concrete blocks during previous missions. He said they have no way of telling how old the blocks were. On October 24th, Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario admitted the Philippines is not ready to file a diplomatic protest over concrete blocks allegedly installed by China in the disputed Scarborough Shoal. Previously, on October 23rd, Philippine President Benigno Aquino said that the reported concrete blocks scattered in the disputed Scarborough Shoal won't yet be removed as they pose no threat so far. Aquino said the "very old" concrete blocks are in the shallow portion of the shoal where there are no vessels transiting.

Japan

Abe Says Japan Ready to Counter China's Power

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal on October 26th, Japanese Prime Minister Shizon Abe said that in his meetings with the region’s leaders at a series of summits this month, he realized that Japan is expected to exert leadership not just on the economic front, but also in the field of security in the Asia-Pacific. “There are concerns that China is attempting to change the status quo by force, rather than by rule of law. But if China opts to take that path, then it won’t be able to emerge peacefully,” Mr. Abe said. “So it shouldn’t take that path, and many nations expect Japan to strongly express that view. And they hope that as a result, China will take responsible action in the international community,” he added.

India

India backs Philippine arbitration bid to solve sea dispute

alt

India has expressed its support for a peaceful resolution to the territorial conflict in the South China Sea, adding it hoped the Philippines’ arbitration bid would prosper and lead to the stability of international waters. “India has very clearly stated our position of support for free access to sea lanes and, of course, international law, the UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) being the basis of peaceful resolution of any such disputes,” visiting Indian External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid said in a forum in Manila.

The U.S.

US ‘pivot’ to Asia gaining strength

The United States has significantly increased its warships and aircraft deployed in Asia despite Washington’s budget woes, adding punch to its “pivot” to the region, a senior naval commander said. Rear Admiral Mark C. Montgomery, commander of an aircraft carrier strike group homeported in Yokosuka, Japan, said the expanded military presence would have a calming effect on simmering tensions and territorial disputes in the region. “The strategic rebalancing has resulted in an extremely higher number of surface combatants, cruisers and destroyers that support the strike group,” Montgomery told Agence France-Presse in an interview on October 24th aboard the aircraft carrier USS George Washington in the South China Sea. Montgomery aid US defense budget cuts and the recent 16-day partial US government shutdown have not affected his command.

US stages show of naval force in the South China Sea

On October 25th, the US Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS George Washington entered Manila Bay. At the head of Carrier Strike Group Five, the aircraft carrier had spent the past week sailing the disputed waters of the South China Sea, visiting various regional claimants. The USS George Washington heads Carrier Strike Group 5, which is the largest such group in the US Navy. It includes two guided missile cruisers, a destroyer, a supply ship and a fast attack submarine. There are over 6,000 military personnel on board the aircraft carrier alone.

Regional Snapshots

ASEAN, China to promote cooperation

alt

The Secretariat of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on October 21st made an official announcement on the results of the ASEAN Secretary General’s visit to China on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of ASEAN-China strategic partnership. He met Chinese leaders, discussing how to maintain peace, security and stability for prosperity in the region, and boost mutually-beneficial cooperation in trade, investment, connectivity, maritime, disaster management, public health, cultural exchange and relations between ASEAN and Chinese people. The announcement says that the Chinese leaders showed their strong commitments to continuing stepping up and expanding cooperation with ASEAN and fully supporting ASEAN’s central role in regional mechanisms as well as completely and efficiently implementing the 2011-2015 ASEAN-China Action Plan.

Philippines, India take up maritime dispute

At the sidelines of a closed-door talks between Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) Secretary Albert del Rosario and Indian External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid, DFA Raul Hernandez said that the sea dispute was  discussed by the two foreign chiefs. “Usually [they talk about] regional issues, and that [SCS dispute] should be included,” Hernandez said on October 21st in an ambush interview.

Taipei, Manila hold 1st formal fishery talks

Taiwan and the Philippines held their first formal meeting on fishing rights in disputed waters in the South China Sea in Taipei on October 22nd, Taiwan's Foreign Ministry said. Officials said in a background briefing that both sides signed the minutes of the two-day meeting, which the ministry said makes them an official document that is legally binding. Manila agreed that their law enforcers will avoid the use of force or violence unless their lives are in jeopardy. Both sides agreed to establish an emergency hotline, activated immediately, so both sides can notify each other in the event of fishery disputes or incidents.

Filipino, China oil firms eye deal in disputed sea

alt

A Filipino-British company has begun talks with China’s state-owned offshore oil producer for a deal to jointly explore for oil and gas in the Co May Shoal, a Filipino official said on October 23rd. Energy Secretary Jericho Petilla said the talks between London-based Forum Energy plc and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, or CNOOC, were at a preliminary stage. He added a commercial agreement could hopefully be reached despite the long-raging disputes over the Co May Shoal.

Indian PM visits China

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh arrived in Beijing on October 22nd night for a three-day official visit. It is the first time since 1954 that the Chinese Premier and Indian Prime Minister visit each other in the same year, which is of great importance to deepening the strategic cooperative partnership between the two countries.

Commentaries & Analyses

Is India Playing a Double Game in the South China Sea?

By  Zachary Keck

alt

India appears to be playing something of a double game on the South China Sea dispute as it tries to balance its competing interests of expanding its influence in Southeast Asia without unduly upsetting China. Delhi’s delicate balancing act was put to the test as Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to China coincided with External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid’s trip to the Philippines. The South China Sea doesn’t appear to have figured prominently into Singh’s trip to Beijing, which focused instead of dialing back tensions along the Sino-Indo border as well as rebalancing economic ties. However, ahead of Singh’s arrival in China, Khurshid gave a lengthy interview to the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post in which he appeared to take a more conciliatory position towards China on the issue of the South China Sea dispute.“We don't interfere” in the South China Sea dispute Khurshid told the Hong Kong daily. He added, “We do believe that anything that is a bilateral issue between two nations must be settled by those two nations.” On the other hand, during his trip to the Philippines, Khurshid at times went farther than India previously has in challenging China’s claims to the South China Sea. The joint statement between two sides that Khurshid signed onto calls the South China Sea the West Philippines Sea, the name Manila uses to refer to the disputed waters. According to Indian media outlets, this broke with India’s usual policy of referring to the waters as the South China Sea to avoid upsetting Beijing. At other times during his visit to the Philippines, Khurshid offered ringing endorsements of the positions taken by the Southeast Asian parties to the disputes, which Beijing strongly opposes. For example, in response to a question from reporters following a speech he gave, Khurshid “clearly stated” India’s support for using the United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS) as the basis for resolving any disputes in the South China Sea. Finally, Khurshid directly linked the dispute over sovereignty in the South China Sea with India’s own border dispute with Beijing. Although he did so in the context of suggesting that the Philippines has much to gain from engaging in a direct dialogue with China over the dispute, Beijing opposes having its various territorial disputes tied together. Its opponents in these disputes, most notably Japan, have tried to do just exactly that.

China's rebalancing strategies to Asean

By Kavi Chongkittavorn

China has devised a set of comprehensive rebalancing strategies to Asean focusing on Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. They would strengthen Bejing's new diplomatic strongholds under the fifth generation leader, President Xi Jinping. Given the present regional strategic environment, Asean is the top priority of China's foreign policy towards neighbouring countries.Two distinctive features of China's latest diplomatic charm offensive - long-term economic engagement and increased security commitment.On the mainland Southeast Asia, Thailand has emerged as China's closest friend - a virtual ally of sort - although it still does not have the traditional security arrangements as the US has enjoyed. Apart from growing economic interdependence, Thailand and China have agreed to increase both traditional and non-traditional cooperation including joint training of their special forces. Further south, China's policy towards Malaysia is distinctive due to the huge presence of oversea Chinese and currently the No. 1 Asean trading nation with China. From Beijing's points, Malaysia has been listed as a friendly country, along with Indonesia that treats China as a comprehensive partner not a threat. Together with Brunei, Malaysia is another claimant that has cordial ties with China.In the maritime Southeast Asia, Indonesia stands out as the most important country for China. When Xi visited Jakarta and became the first foreign leader to address the National Assembly, it was a barometer of the extent both countries were willing to accommodate with each other. With further democratic consolidation and rising regional status, Indonesia is not shy to engage China in security and strategic matters. Jakarta has come up with several proposals to break the impasse of South China Sea quagmire as well as preventive and management of conflict in Asean and beyond.When Li spoke of China's Treaty of Friendship and Neighborliness with Asean, he credited Indonesia's earlier idea of collective security in the region. With Beijing and Jakarta on the same page on strategic matters, the chance of misunderstanding between the world's second economic power and third largest democracy would be minimal - a far cry from four decades ago when China was viewed with hostility.

Obama's Dangerous South China Sea Strategy

By Ted Galen Carpenter

alt

Beijing’s claims are annoyingly broad, and the United States, as the world’s leading maritime power, understandably does not want to see the South China Sea become Chinese territorial waters. But Washington needs to exercise greater caution for two reasons. First, the issue is one that involves a great deal of national pride on China’s part, not just mundane economic or territorial calculations. Chinese officials are fond of asserting their country’s “indisputable historical” claim to the South China Sea and seem to regard U.S. actions as a manifestation of a broader policy to thwart China’s re-emergence as a great power. Chinese leaders are already uneasy about Washington’s strategic pivot or “rebalancing” military posture toward East Asia and the accompanying efforts to strengthen ties with traditional allies such as Japan and South Korea. Backing the Philippines and other rival claimants in the South China Sea controversy enhances Beijing’s suspicions. Second, it is generally a bad idea for a great power to back a small, volatile client state in a dispute with a much larger, stronger neighbor. Small clients then have a tendency to adopt a bolder stance—sometimes even an irresponsible one—confident that their powerful patron has their back. The Philippines is a small, poor country with a fragile political system marked by a good deal of jingoistic posturing. Its territorial claims in the South China Sea may exceed any reasonable ability to vindicate them without direct U.S. backing. Manila has already infuriated Beijing on several occasions over the past few years by sending ships into disputed waters. Washington’s imprudent support for a weak treaty ally could ultimately embroil the United States in a nasty confrontation with an increasingly powerful China. The Obama administration needs to rethink its strategy regarding the South China Sea issue before blundering into a crisis.

Competing Contradictions: The South China Sea

By Noah Black

While China and all ASEAN members, except for Cambodia, have ratified the Convention, the U.S. has not. While multiple presidents and the Pentagon have repeatedly urged Congress to ratify UNCLOS, the Convention has found little acceptance. Two reasons exist for this refusal. First, detractors see UNCLOS as an infringement on territorial sovereignty. While part of this claim rests on individualist or nationalist ideals, there is also a commercial explanation: The initial opposition to UNCLOS was driven by domestic industries fearing U.N. oversight and limitation of their seabed mining rights. The second reason is perhaps more compelling. UNCLOS is seen as unnecessary because the U.S. has accepted its most important provisions as general maritime legal conventions. Under this rational, ratification is irrelevant because the U.S. already complies with the spirit of UNCLOS. Thus, ratification would carry little benefit while potentially incurring significant costs for the U.S. On the surface, it may seem hypocritical for the United States to push for China to cooperate with ASEAN neighbors in the South China Sea, the U.S. position is amply credible. While the U.S. has not ratified UNCLOS, it has maintained a consistent and principled approach to maritime law that is in line with the spirit of the Convention. By contrast, China has continually overreached the boundaries assigned by UNCLOS, making its position much less sympathetic than that of the U.S. or ASEAN countries. Further, the Convention’s dispute resolution mechanism would likely be ineffective in the hands of U.S. diplomats. Thus, the United States’ current approach is likely the best available in that it lends support to ASEAN countries while avoiding accusations of American interventionism.

Malaysia to Establish Marine Corps and South China Sea Naval Base

By Zachary Keck

The Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN) is creating a marine corps and establishing a new naval base in the South China Sea near waters it disputes with China, IHS Jane’s reported, citing a press release from Defense Minister Hishammuddin Tun Hussein. According to the defense minister’s statement, the new naval base will be built in Bintulu on the South China Sea (SCS) for the explicit purpose of protecting nearby waters and oil reserves. As Jane’s points out, however, the base will be located just 60 miles from the James Shoal, an area in the South China Sea claimed by both Malaysia and China.Back in March a PLA amphibious task force conducted a large naval exercise in the James Shoal.“It is not just a few ships here and there, but a crack amphibious landing ship carrying marines and hovercraft and backed by some of the best escort ships in the PLAN fleet,” Gary Li, a senior analyst with IHS Fairplay, told Asian Correspondent at the time. “We've never seen anything like this that far south in terms of quantity or quality … it is hard to know whether it is just coincidence, but it does seem to reflect [President] Xi Jinping's desire for more practical operationally based exercises,” Li added. IHS Jane’s said that Malaysia will rely on the expertise of the U.S. Marines Corps (USMC) to help develop the new Marine force.“ Malaysia is keen to draw on the USMC's expertise and has been in discussions with the United States (US) over support, training and expertise exchange,” the report said.Malaysia’s decision to establish a naval base in the South China Sea is in line with other Southeast Asian nations that are locked in territorial disputes with China over the waters. As The Diplomat reported, the Philippines is creating a new naval base on Oyster Bay, Palawan Island. Vietnam is similarly expanding its Cam Ranh Bay naval base and offering foreign navies greater access to it.