Mô tả
Prof. Carl Thayer, The University of New South Wales, the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra, Australia
Are we about to see the conclusion of a binding COC thirteen years after ASEAN and China committed themselves to “to work, on the basis of consensus, towards the eventual attainment of this objective”? It seems highly unlikely because China insists that the 2002 Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) be fully implemented first. This paper canvasses what are the likely “crucial, difficult and complicated issues” that remain to be resolved. The paper argues that ASEAN should pursue its own dual track approach to managing tensions in the South China Sea. First, ASEAN mustcontinue to pursue its consultations with China on the COC. Second, in light of China’s construction of forward operating bases on its artificial islands, ASEAN should look beyond the COC and shore up the ASEAN Political-Security Community while at the same time drawing in the support of its dialogue partners. Only ASEAN unity and leadership will preserve its centrality in managing challenges to Southeast Asia’s security.
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