Each country has been upping the game, raising the chances of an “accident” that could destabilize the world’s fastest growing economic region.
The South China Sea dispute begun as a regional dispute between China and several neighboring countries, but it soon turned into a showdown of economic and military might between China and the US.
Two years ago, China raised the stakes by building artificial islands in the South China Sea. America responded by expanding its naval presence around the artificial islands, and by upgrading its missile capabilities in South Korea.
In the beginning, China confined its response to a few harsh statements about America’s “violation” of international law, and by trying to enlist diplomatic allies with the AIIB initiative.
Now, however, China is preparing to send nuclear submarines into the area to “deter” US presence.
“Strategic nuclear missiles are the foundation of a military deterrence,” so goes a Global Times editorial. “China has been adopting an ‘effective nuclear deterrence’ strategy, with much fewer nuclear warheads than the West powers. Also, China is the only one among the nuclear powers to announce a no-first-use policy. It means that China’s nuclear deterrence lies in its capability to strike back.”
Apparently, China and the US are engaged in what game theorists call a “game of the chicken,” with each side sending a message to the other side what their fighting capabilities are. For now.
“China’s nuclear deterrence must be real and effective so as to play an important role in the US government’s making of its China policies,” continues the same Global Times editorial. “Just as when any country assesses the US power, it will immediately think about the US aircraft carriers and not risk a head-on military confrontation with the US.”
Does it sound like China is going to chicken out?
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